Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
I know you’ve heard it a million times at this point, but NFL Week 18 can be very tricky to navigate from a betting perspective.
Teams that have already locked up playoff spots are likely sitting their starters, and then you have some squads just trying to get through the end of the season before the franchise goes into full rebuild mode.
Either way, I’ve found a few spots that I think are worth wagering. Check out my best bets for the last weekend of the regular season.
(All times ET)
SATURDAY, JAN. 4
Browns @ Ravens (4:30 p.m., ESPN)
Heading into Week 18, you’re going to see people in the wagering space listing out players who are due performance bonuses for statistical and playing-time milestones. It’s foolish to blindly wager on them because the flow of the games, how much action they get on game day and the actual matchups could all play a part in whether those incentives can be reached.
Also, it’s rare for the offensive coordinator to game plan for a player to hit that milestone. I’ve never been in a meeting or huddle where the quarterback said, “Let’s make sure the ball goes here.” So again, do not blindly wager on them. They must be reasonable to obtain.
However, I am going to piggyback on colleague Sam Panayotovich’s suggestion to take Derrick Henry to score an anytime touchdown, as mentioned on the “Bear Bets Podcast.” Henry needs one more touchdown to secure a $500,000 bonus. This is reachable and easily attainable.
The Ravens are playing a meaningful game on Saturday. With a win against the Browns, they secure the AFC North crown. The Browns might be the worst team in the NFL and when the Ravens are close to the end zone, Henry will get a chance to score. I know the price might be steep for some, but I’m OK laying the -230 for something I believe will happen.
PICK: Derrick Henry (-230) Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Herd Hierarchy: Chiefs sit on top
SUNDAY, JAN. 5
Vikings @ Lions (8:20 p.m., NBC)
The Lions defense is so beat up. It just cannot defend with any consistency.
Detroit is down nearly an entire defense’s worth of players to injuries. It might get back its middle linebacker this weekend, but that single player alone is not enough to help slow the Vikings.
The Lions allowed 34 points to the 49ers, 17 points to the lowly Bears, 48 to the Bills and 31 to the Packers over the last month. Minnesota’s offense is ranked only 14th in DVOA but is ninth in offensive points per game. If you remove the Vikings’ offensive stinker stretch over three games in the middle of the season, they would average close to 30 points per contest. Detroit allowed 29 to the Vikings earlier in the season when the squad was healthier on defense.
Finally, the Vikings will have the mindset of having to score a touchdown each drive, and that’s because the Lions offense can be powerful and opponents feel pressured to keep up.
PICK: Vikings (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Eagles to sit Saquon Barkley in Week 18, 101 yards shy of all-time rushing record
Seahawks, Buccaneers, Broncos Parlay
It’s nearly impossible to find lines and totals worth wagering on this weekend because more than half the games will feel like the preseason.
There are teams resting their starters who are still favorites over the worst teams in the NFL. Some teams might play starters for one half or until they know their playoff bid is secure. So I’ve found it best to wager on the teams you know need or want to win.
Before I explain my selections here, I must discuss the concept of a spoiler team.
As the season ends, and matchups are discussed between potential playoff squads and their non-playoff opponents, we will hear this idea of spoiler teams. These are bad teams attempting to ruin the season of a potential playoff team by beating them.
It’s always worth pointing out when it does happen. And it usually happens with a young, hungry team that doesn’t know any better. The 2022 Lions going to Green Bay to beat the Packers serves as an example.
Now that we’re on the same page, here’s my parlay.
Tampa Bay is a two-touchdown favorite to a New Orleans Saints team that’s essentially just running out the clock until it hires a new coach and redoes the roster. The Bucs can secure the NFC South division with a win at home. And they are going to win (I think they probably cover as well, but I’m not laying 14 with this team).
The Denver Broncos need to win on Sunday to make the postseason, and they are facing the preseason Kansas City Chiefs squad. The Chiefs will sit their top players and Carson Wentz is starting at quarterback. There are even reports about the third-string quarterback getting some run. If you recall, the Broncos played the Chiefs with the starters in the lineup and lost after a game-winning field goal attempt was blocked.
They will win this time.
The Seattle Seahawks have been eliminated from the postseason but will want to win on Sunday. A win gives them 10 for the season, which is quite the accomplishment for first-year coach Mike McDonald. Also worth noting: QB Geno Smith receives a $2 million bonus for winning 10 games in a season. The Rams have already announced they are not playing quarterback Matthew Stafford, which means other starters are not playing as well.
PICK: Seahawks, Buccaneers, Broncos (-130) Three-leg Moneyline Parlay
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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