Carmen Vitali
NFL Reporter
We’re in for a treat in Week 18.
While there are very few stakes remaining across the NFL at this point of the season, it’s hard to overstate what this weekend will mean for two teams, in particular: the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions.
The two juggernauts are playing each other in a regular-season finale that will not only determine who indeed takes the (NFC) North but will also dictate each team’s path through this year’s playoffs.
Whichever team wins on Sunday will claim the top seed in the NFC playoffs, clinch the first-round bye and home-field advantage for as long as they’re in the dance. They’ll also win the toughest division in the league with 15 wins on the season, which would set a new record in Detroit or tie a record in Minnesota for most wins in franchise history. The 1998 Vikings also achieved 15 wins and went on to win the NFC Central and advance all the way to the conference championship.
Whichever team loses on Sunday will be the fifth seed in the NFC playoffs and will be unlikely to host a playoff game at all. They will also face the conference’s fourth seed in the wild card round, which will be a division champion (either the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Atlanta Falcons depending on how this weekend shakes out).
If any team is equipped to be the away team in the postseason though, it might just be the Lions, who are the only team in the league to go undefeated on the road this year. They’re now the third team to do so in the past 10 seasons. Each of the other two teams made the Super Bowl, including the 2016 New England Patriots, who won it all.
But you can’t deny that being a wild card team makes the already insurmountable task of winning the Super Bowl that much harder. There have been just seven such teams to win it all in NFL history, the last being the 2020 Tom-Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Even more than the stakes, the game between the Vikings and Lions this weekend will be rare.
[Read more: 2024 NFL Power Rankings Week 18: Are the Vikings the best team in the NFC?]
The combined win total of these two teams (28 wins) will be the most ever and the most since the 2007 finale between the 10-5 New York Giants and the 15-0 New England Patriots during the latter’s undefeated regular season.
Consider that whichever team does indeed become the fifth seed will set a new league record for wins by a 5, 6 or 7 seed in the NFL playoffs. No team slotted in any of those playoff seeds has won more than 12 games.
Moreover, the loser of this game will break the record for the most wins by a team that did not win its division; the previous record was held by the 1999 Titans, who went 13-3 (second in the AFC Central behind the 14-2 Jacksonville Jaguars).
Which way it breaks is anyone’s guess. Plenty of folks have wanted to count the Lions out of any real viability because of injury. Plenty more folks have never believed in the Vikings’ viability at all.
And sure, the injury issues in Detroit are worth talking about. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn continues to pull off miracles. He could practically field an entire defense with guys who are on injured reserve. Sure enough, the Lions have given up more points and yards as of late than they’re comfortable with. They gave up 34 points to the ailing San Francisco 49ers on Monday. Two weeks ago, they lost to the Bills and gave up 48 points in the process.
But offensively, even with the injury to running back David Montgomery, they couldn’t be flying higher. Detroit has the best-scoring offense in the league, averaging 32.9 points per game, under hotshot OC Ben Johnson. They just became the first team in NFL history to have two running backs and two wide receivers all top 1,000 scrimmage yards in a single season. That’s what happens when you’re amassing an average of 408.6 yards per game.
And what’s more, they’re just plain old having fun doing it. Johnson will be this year’s top head coaching candidate by a “Detroit mile” should he choose to actually become one. It’s because of his offensive scheme which not only scores points but doesn’t seem to follow the same script twice. It’s ever-evolving, ever-entertaining and it’s the Lions’ best they’ve had. It could certainly be enough to get them through the first few weeks of the postseason while their defense heals, especially if that includes a first-round bye.
The Vikings, on the other hand, are as healthy as any team is going to be at this stage of the season. They’re also playing their best football under both head coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The way O’Connell has brought the best out of former castoff QB Sam Darnold is nothing short of astounding. Darnold has put up MVP-caliber numbers when many wrote him off years ago. O’Connell also finds ways to get the league’s best receiver, Justin Jefferson, open while also feeding other offensive talent like Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones. They seamlessly transitioned from one of the best left tackles in the league to a free-agent reinforcement when Christian Darrisaw got injured. The defense is letting up the third-fewest points and has the best interception rate of any team. The Vikings have been able to count on defensive takeaways so much that their players have now become known for their elaborately coordinated celebrations that range in inspiration from “The Parent Trap” to “White Chicks.”
And yet, this game is what could validate them. Whether it’s leftover scars from 2022 or disbelief that Minnesota has fielded a contender while going through a “competitive rebuild” with Darnold at the helm, Minnesota isn’t being talked about as a legit Super Bowl team. Beat the big, bad Lions, and the Vikings force the league to reckon with the fact that they’re just as scary as anyone.
That’s what’s on the line Sunday night. What a treat.
Carmen Vitali is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.
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