NFL Week 18 picks, prop bets, waiver wire pickups, and daily fantasy advice

The 18th week of the NFL is upon us, and while most of the playoff bracket has been set, there are still a few games this week that have several postseason implications heading into Wild Card weekend.

And if you’re in a fantasy football league that is still playing into the last week of regular season play, you’ll be paying close attention to these matchups too. 

Below, FOX Sports Research has outlined several picks, prop bets to make, notable players worth adding in your daily fantasy sports (DFS) lineup, and several waiver wire pick-ups that could win you your league in Week 18. Let’s get into it. 

Picks

Bengals at Steelers (Cincinnati -1.5)

Behind the spectacular play of Joe Burrow, Cincinnati is still in the playoff hunt at 8-8 entering Week 18. If the Broncos lose to the Chiefs (who are sitting starters as they’ve already locked up the No. 1 seed) and the Dolphins lose to the Jets, the Bengals are in with a win. Keep in mind that Tua Tagovailoa did not play last week and is still questionable as of Tuesday. We like Zac Taylor and Co. to get the win against a Steelers squad that has already clinched a playoff berth. Below are some nuggets that point to why we think the Bengals will cover the spread:

• Bengals are 10-6 ATS this season, and have covered in their last four games.
• Bengals are 7-1 ATS and 5-3 SU in their last eight games on the road.
• Bengals are 28-11 ATS and 21-17-1 SU in road games under Joe Burrow.
• Joe Burrow is 2-1 ATS and 3-0 SU for his career when playing in Week 17 and 18.
• Joe Burrow has 10 games with 250+ pass yards and three pass touchdowns this season— the fourth player in NFL history to have 10+ such games in a season; the other three are Patrick Mahomes in 2018 (10), Peyton Manning in 2013 (11) and Tom Brady in 2007 (10) (all three of them won the MVP that season).

Chiefs at Broncos (OVER 38.5)

Sportsbooks have set this total so low because of the cold weather along with the fact that the Chiefs will be sitting most of their key players. But the Broncos have everything to play for, and have been rolling on offense this season. They’re one of just seven teams to have hit the Over in at least 65% of their games, and are averaging 31.7 points per game (PPG) since Week 11— the fourth most of any team in that span.

Kansas City has more firepower to offer than most people are expecting too, as Carson Wentz will suit up for Andy Reid this Sunday. In his 94 career starts, Wentz’s teams have averaged 23.9 PPG — which should be more than enough considering the Broncos will be contributing to the total as well. And don’t forget that he’ll be throwing to the same receivers he practices with, as all the No. 2’s should get ample burn.

49ers at Cardinals (Arizona ML: -198)

With Brock Purdy aggravating an elbow injury, we’re surprised the moneyline odds for this game aren’t larger. While both teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will still look to end the season on a high note against an injury-riddled 49ers team. Below are some notes that point towards Arizona earning the victory on Sunday:

• Kyler Murray is 4-2-1 ATS and 3-4 SU against the 49ers in his career.
• Cardinals are 4-1 ATS and SU in their last five games at home.
• Cardinals are 7-3 ATS and 5-5 SU in their last then games.
• 49ers are 1-7 ATS and 2-6 SU in their last eight games.
• 49ers are 1-4 ATS 2-3 SU in their last five games on the road.

Prop bets to make

Najee Harris anytime TD scorer: +110

While Najee Harris only has five touchdowns on the season, he’s got two things going for him. The first is that they face a Bengals team that is allowing 128 rushing yards per game — good for the fifth most of any AFC team — and also has allowed 19 rushing touchdowns this season, one of eight teams this season to allow that many. 

The second is that he’s the focal point of Pittsburgh’s rushing attack, with his 251 carries being the seventh most of any player in the league. He’s also one of just 13 players to have eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards and scored at least five touchdowns. Harris is currently +110 to score a touchdown at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Trey Hendrickson to record a sack: -130

This wager feels like free money, as Trey Hendrickson is currently tied with Myles Garrett for the league-lead in sacks with 14. Pittsburgh also hasn’t had the best offensive line play this year, giving up 45 sacks (10th most in the NFL) and 142 team pressures allowed (11th most in the NFL) this season. Dan Moore Jr. and Broderick Jones, the starting offensive tackles for the Steelers, have allowed a combined 20 sacks and 77 pressures according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). They join Tennessee’s Nicholas Petit-Frere as the only tackles to have allowed 10 sacks this season. Hendrickson is currently -130 to record a sack at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tim Patrick to record a 20+ yard reception: +200

Tim Patrick has put together a commendable season as the third receiver for the Lions this season, totaling 31 receptions for 379 yards. While he hasn’t recorded a catch in consecutive weeks, he put up at least 25 receiving yards in each of the five games prior to that. All three of his receiving touchdowns have also come in the last four weeks. With a huge matchup against the Vikings this week, we expect him to get into the mix with all the attention likely going to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, both of whom have already totaled 1,000 scrimmage yards each already along with a combined 20 touchdowns between the two of them. Patrick is currently +200 to record a 20+ yard reception at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Undervalued daily fantasy picks (Values from DraftKings Sportsbook)

Aaron Rodgers: $5,600

While Aaron Rodgers is about to conclude what is the statistically worst season of his career, his value against a mediocre Dolphins defense this week is still high. Before the 40-14 blowout against the Bills last week, A-Rod was averaging 294.7 pass yards per game over the previous three weeks and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of five to zero in that span. For perspective, his current price of $5,600 is the same as Caleb Williams and Carson Wentz, but lower than Bryce Young and Drake Maye.

Ray Davis: $5,200

Ray Davis’ price might seem a little high at $5,200, but that’s because he’s capable of going bonkers against a Patriots run defense that is allowing 131.4 rushing yards per game (eighth worst in the league). In Week 6 against the Jets, he had 20 carries for 97 yards and three catches for 55 yards. Expect him to get that many touches and to take advantage of them against a 3-13 New England team.

Michael Carter: $4,700

James Conner injured his knee last week, and with Arizona out of the playoffs already, it’ll likely be the Michael Carter show on Sunday. After entering the game for Conner, he finished last week with 13 carries for 70 yards in just his second appearance of the season. Trey Benson could split rushing duties with him, but the rookie out of Florida State only had five carries last week and has been somewhat disappointing after a stellar season with the Seminoles. 

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: $4,400

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has been a silent killer all season. He averaged 16 yards per reception and is one of 10 players in the NFL with nine or more receiving touchdowns. His current price of $4,400 seems very reasonable, especially when considering that he has 10 targets and a touchdown in his last two games. He faces a Texans defense that has allowed 30 pass touchdowns this season, third most of any team in the league. 

Tutu Atwell: $3,800

Tutu Atwell has only seen seven targets in the last four games, but his playmaking ability and elite speed make him worth the risk. He has 525 receiving yards this season despite only having 37 catches on 54 targets. Atwell has yet to score this season, making this our riskiest choice in this bunch. But is there a better time for him to score than against a divisional rival in the last game of the season?

Justin Watson: $3,500

Like we mentioned earlier, Carson Wentz is getting the start and all the No. 2s will likely be getting a lot of action. One has to think that these two have a decent rapport with each other after connecting in practice for the last 18 weeks. Justin Watson scored his second touchdown of the season last week and had a season-high 60 receiving yards. He could be primed to have a career day against a Broncos pass defense that is allowing 230.1 pass yards per game, eighth most in the league.

Waiver wire pickups to make

Joe Flacco

Who knows whether we’ll get another season of the ageless wonder that is Joe Flacco. But until then, this is one that you’ll have to monitor until Sunday, as reports have stated that Anthony Richardson will start if he is healthy. If he isn’t, Flacco is a pick-up worth making if you need a quarterback. In five starts this season, he’s thrown for over 270 yards in three of them, along with 11 pass touchdowns in seven appearances. You have to imagine Shane Steichen is going to let him air it out in what could be his swan song.

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. has only had 35 carries for 173 rushing yards this season, but that’s a direct result of Washington’s running back by committee approach. Last week he vultured a touchdown from Brian Robinson Jr., and with the Commanders already in the playoffs, there’s a good chance he gets more touches this week. And it comes at the absolute perfect time, as Washington takes on the Dallas, who allow 138.6 rushing yards per game – the fourth-worst mark in the league.

Marvin Mims

The former Oklahoma receiver had himself a day last week, catching two touchdown passes and recording eight catches for 103 receiving yards. The Broncos are still fighting for a playoff spot, so they’ll need Marvin Mims to put on a similar performance against what should be the Chiefs’ backups. In last week’s game against the Bengals, he was targeted a season-high eight times— and caught all eight of those balls.

Mike Gesicki

Simply put, this is a Joe Burrow play. He’s thrown three touchdowns in eight consecutive games, becoming the fourth player in NFL history to achieve that feat, joining Tom Brady (10 in 2007), Andrew Luck (eight in 2018), and Peyton Manning (eight in 2004). Mike Gesiciki’s only two touchdowns of the year both came in Week 9. If Burrow continues this hot streak, Gesicki could be worth the risk if you’re desperate for a tight end in Week 18.

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