For the first seven weeks of the offseason, the first-base market was frozen. Despite a wealth of intriguing candidates to change threads in both free agency and on the trade block, there was barely any first-base movement to speak of. Starting pitchers continued to find new homes. Seven catchers signed big-league deals. The outfield market picked up steam following Juan Soto’s historic signing.
First basemen, though? Crickets.
As Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, secured lucrative contracts for several other high-profile clients, the first baseman’s uneventful free agency dragged on as the most prominent example of his position being overlooked.
But then, the week before Christmas, a tornado of transactional activity involving Alonso’s positional peers commenced. The Astros, fresh off a failed attempt to trade for Nolan Arenado — a deal that would’ve moved recently acquired Isaac Paredes to first base — pivoted and signed Christian Walker to a three-year deal to solidify their corner infield. The next day, the Yankees agreed to a one-year deal with former MVP Paul Goldschmidt. The D-backs then acquired All-Star Josh Naylor from the Guardians, and Cleveland swiftly replaced Naylor with the signing of veteran switch-hitter and familiar face Carlos Santana. Finally, the Nationals swung a deal with Texas to acquire a former Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Award winner in Nathaniel Lowe.
Over the course of 48 hours, five first basemen changed teams. Suddenly, a frigid market had thawed in a hurry. Yet Alonso remained available, with minimal buzz suggesting that would change anytime soon. Indeed, the calendar has nearly flipped to 2025, and Alonso is still unsigned.
To be fair, Alonso is a flawed player, one who provides minimal value defensively or on the basepaths. But for all his deficiencies, he offers a nearly unrivaled combination of durability and power production: Only Marcus Semien has played in more regular-season games since Alonso’s debut in 2019, and only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs.
In fact, Alonso is one of just 10 players in MLB history to hit at least 30 home runs in five of his first six MLB seasons. That group includes five Hall of Famers (Ralph Kiner, Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio), a future first-ballot Hall of Famer (Albert Pujols) and three other terrific 21st-century sluggers (Ryan Braun, Dan Uggla, Mark Teixeira). Only Pujols reached the 30-HR threshold in each of his first six big-league seasons, but Alonso — who hit 16 home runs in 57 games in 2020 — likely would have had his second MLB season not been shortened due to the pandemic.
Even with that abbreviated campaign, Alonso has one of the largest collections of home runs to this point in a career that the game has ever seen. Only Kiner (257) and Pujols (250) hit more homers through their first six seasons than Alonso (226), an astonishing demonstration of his consistency and availability.
The lack of movement on a sizable investment in Alonso might also be a reflection of the state of his position. No longer is first base where you find the bulk of the game’s most prodigious sluggers. Today, teams’ power production is more spread out across the roster, with first base often serving as a position where multiple players cycle through and receive consistent at-bats. There are still a handful of superstars at the position, but far fewer than there were 20 years ago. Just four primary first basemen — Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper and Matt Olson — were worth at least 3 WAR in 2024, according to Baseball Reference. That’s the fewest first basemen to reach 3 WAR in a full season since 1963. For comparison, six did so in 2023, 11 in 2021, and an all-time high of 15 first basemen reached 3 WAR back in 1997.
While Alonso fell short in 2024, he did clear the 3-WAR mark in four of his first five big-league seasons. And as the position has evolved around him — with the legendary careers of Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto officially in the rearview — Alonso has emerged as one of the few every-day stars remaining at his position, the epitome of a first-base slugger in an era that no longer reveres such an archetype. Yet because of teams’ hesitance to commit long-term to players of his profile — right-handed-hitting first basemen with limited defensive value — Alonso finds himself waiting around for a worthwhile deal.
At the outset of the offseason, a reunion with the Mets appeared to be the most likely and sensible outcome for Alonso’s long-anticipated free agency. Queens is where he blossomed into the lovable and recognizable middle-of-the-order presence that he is today. And beyond the club’s pursuit of Soto, retaining Alonso was stated as a priority of the winter by New York’s leadership. At that point, though, there were several other contenders with notable needs at first base who could have emerged as suitors for a player of Alonso’s ilk, such as the Astros, Yankees and D-backs. As those potential alternatives have dwindled in recent weeks, the Mets have emerged as not only the most ideal landing spot for Alonso but also arguably the only logical landing spot left.
It is this dynamic — in addition to an industry-wide reluctance to commit substantial resources to his position — that has left Alonso’s free agency seemingly stuck in the mud. In theory, the Mets’ longstanding affinity for the player combined with owner Steve Cohen’s unrivaled spending power should result in a sizable deal to keep Alonso in orange and blue for the long haul. But if there aren’t any other clubs pushing aggressively for Alonso’s services, the Mets need not overplay their hand and bid against themselves. This is a far cry from the Soto sweepstakes, in which multiple big-market clubs were collectively driving the price to the unprecedented heights that Cohen was ultimately willing to reach. In this case, the Mets can more comfortably wait things out, recognizing that there is far less competition, and hope that Alonso’s demands eventually fall in line with the club’s vision for a deal.
If not the Mets, the Giants loom as the most logical potential impediment to Alonso’s return to Queens, but they’re hardly the most natural fit. Eager to reestablish itself as a contender, San Francisco made a big splash earlier in December with the signing of shortstop Willy Adames, creating a fantastic left side of the infield alongside Matt Chapman. The Giants reportedly are interested in adding to their rotation as well, but they have yet to do so.
LaMonte Wade Jr., entering the final year of his contract, is the incumbent at first base in San Francisco, though he has been the subject of trade discussions. The Giants’ top prospect, Bryce Eldridge, who reached Triple-A this season as a 19-year-old, is also a first baseman and could be knocking on the door by the end of 2025. Perhaps a trade of Wade to clear room for Alonso on a short-term deal would make some sense, but it’s difficult to imagine the club committing to Alonso long-term with Eldridge waiting in the wings.
Beyond San Francisco, Toronto is another club that has been aggressively attempting to improve its roster via free agency but has come up short on multiple fronts. While first base is virtually the team’s last need, considering the presence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays’ lineup is in dire need of power production. If Alonso and Guerrero are amenable to splitting DH and 1B duties, perhaps there’s a fit there. Otherwise, Seattle is the one other club with obvious October aspirations that has an unsettled first-base situation — but the Mariners haven’t demonstrated anything remotely resembling an appetite for the kind of contract Alonso is seeking.
Maybe there is a Corbin Burnes-to-Arizona-esque surprise still in store for Alonso, and perhaps a mystery team will emerge late as a legitimate suitor. Otherwise, all signs point to Alonso staying in Queens, albeit likely not on the magnitude of contract he and Boras were seeking at the beginning of the offseason.
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