As we close the books on another wild fantasy season, we want to take the broadest approach yet to Fact or Fluke. While it’s true that the events of the 2024 season will drive 2025 predictions, projections and fantasy drafting decisions, it’s not clear that we’ll remember the events exactly as we should.
Memory is a tricky thing. One of the problems with memory is that every time we recall something, the memory becomes labile, meaning it could be altered. This fact is the basis for treating many phobias and PTSD. It has also raised questions about witness testimony in legal settings; when a witness is repeatedly questioned about the same events, their memory can shift in subtle ways. Scientific research has shown that memories of things that never happened can be instilled in people’s brains by a trusted confidant and become part of their personal story.
Why do we care about this in fantasy football? We can agree that the stats are the stats, the numbers are the same no matter who’s looking at them, right? But the way the stats affected us led to our framing of the season in terms of whether it was good or bad for us. Most cognitive biases, the ones that will hurt our decision-making at least, involve how we weigh information. Take Ja’Marr Chase, who has had the best season of his four-year career and leads all wide receivers in half-PPR fantasy points by 60+ fantasy points. If you didn’t draft him and happened to play against him in one of his below-average weeks (1, 2, 6 or 9), he didn’t really make an impression on you this year and you might under-weigh his 2024 stats next year. However, if you did have him on your roster, you might have over-weighed those same stats in your 2025 draft prep.
Being aware of our tendency toward biased memory can help us see the data for what it is and nothing more (or less).
The biggest culprit in messing with our memory’s accuracy is recency bias. The way that players ended their season, or your fantasy season, will pull more weight than their early or midseason performance. Early season heroes get forgotten, while those who excelled during the fantasy playoffs earn extra credit. Are we going to believe in the Giants again next year after Drew Lock finished the season looking like Patrick Mahomes? No, but Malik Nabers is still a huge fantasy asset, regardless of who the QB is in New York.
Is Marvin Mims Jr., who helped no one in the fantasy finals, the real deal in Denver? He is finishing the season strong — in notably good matchups — and Bo Nix really needs a go-to guy. I’m going to be watching closely to see what happens in a must-win game in Week 18, albeit against the Chiefs’ second team, but I think Mims could end up being a great value next year.
Brian Thomas Jr. finished the season strong with Mac Jones, but can we trust the Jaguars next season? What about Tank Bigsby? Both will be drafted relatively high next season. I actually think that Jacksonville might figure it all out in 2025. The pieces are in place on both sides of the ball … and I am a serial optimist.
The way to handle recency bias when it comes to next year’s draft is to look at the player’s season as a whole. The average fantasy points per game is useful, but the trend line is more useful. A high average and a relatively flat line, that’s our first-round star profile. A low start with a positive trajectory as the season goes on? This guy is poised for a better fantasy season than his average indicates. The toughest plot to predict is the up-down-up-down player who has great games mixed in with complete duds. These guys are your late-round dart throws. A few will make it into consistent starter status, but most will remain benchwarmers whom we pray for during our worst bye week.
Other factors that can skew our recall during the offseason include injuries and benchings. Understanding the nature of the injury and reasons for the benching can go a long way toward tempering any overreactions that might carry into 2025. Take Jalen Hurts, who suffered a concussion in Week 16 — in the first quarter — which impacted most if not all of the fantasy managers who drafted him. This leaves a terrible taste in our mouths but should have zero impact on where he’s drafted in 2025.
Or James Conner, who was such a big factor in getting you to the championship, suffering a knee injury at the end of Week 16’s game, only to be active, reinjure the knee and put up one of the biggest duds of the season. Ouch! But again, I fully expect the perennially underrated Conner to be a mid-late-round steal next year.
Maybe the biggest lesson we can take from 2024 regarding injuries is to not overdraft players starting the season on IR. Nick Chubb (eighth round), Jonathan Brooks (eighth round) and T.J. Hockenson (10th round) were the big ones, and while Hockenson actually returned in Week 9 and played out the remainder of the season, it was his worst since his rookie year (2019).
What do we do when years of data-informed opinions are turned on their heads? This season, we’re left wondering who Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold really are. Then there are the fantasy workhorses who kind of fell off the marquee this year: Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, Isiah Pacheco, C.J. Stroud, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins come to mind for me.
Mayfield wasn’t bad last year. The Bucs have a ton of talent on offense and one of the league’s best offensive lines. A quick-release philosophy plays to Mayfield’s strengths, and they play in one of the easiest divisions. All to say this could finally be the “real’” Mayfield. Darnold is a little different; yes, he has great receivers and a solid run game with him, and his offensive line is good enough to make him the QB who holds onto the ball longest before throwing, but not elite. Darnold wasn’t drafted to be the Vikings’ hero this season, but his 18:2 TD:INT ratio in the last seven games likely helped some fantasy managers win their leagues. It would be hard to imagine Minnesota turning away from him after this breakout season. My trust level is lower than with Mayfield based on his previous six seasons, but it’s higher than I ever would have guessed back in August.
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As for the others mentioned above, they deserve to be drafted at least 2-3 rounds later next year. For many, age is becoming a factor. Hill has a LOT of wear and tear on that speedy body. For others, it’s usage and competition or a shift in team philosophy; e.g. the Rams are back to having a true elite running back in Kyren Williams. On the other hand, the Chiefs and Andy Reid seem hell-bent on not over-relying on one go-to player which hasn’t allowed Pacheco to ever really be that bell-cow back we want.
Lastly, what about draft strategy trends? Savvy drafters have been migrating away from an RB-heavy early round approach to a more durable WR-heavy build over the last 10 years. Zero RB has given way to Hero RB over the last two seasons, but taking a lot of early wide receivers was still the most popular strategy of 2024. Drafters are divided on Late Round QB or Elite QB, given the value of the dual-threat QBs like Josh Allen and Hurts. I’ve looked at the kinds of teams you come away with after following a rigid draft strategy, and year after year the data points to balance and flexibility as being the best build. Having a guiding principle, like “I know I want a top-five rushing QB” is fine, but if you miss out on those, taking the sixth or seventh QB — without the rushing upside — is reactive and suboptimal. You need to be ready to pivot to take advantage of what’s in front of you.
Good fantasy and life advice, if you ask me as we prepare to look ahead to 2025. Happy New Year!
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