How valuable would No. 1 pick be for Pats? What recent trade suggest originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The New England Patriots will enter Week 18 with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
They are not guaranteed to earn that selection, but it would be theirs if they lose to the Buffalo Bills at home on Sunday afternoon. (Check out all the potential scenarios here).
If the Patriots do secure the No. 1 pick for the first time since 1993, it wouldn’t be surprising if they entertained trading the selection, purely based on the fact that the franchise doesn’t need a quarterback.
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Drake Maye, whom the Patriots took at No. 3 in the 2024 NFL Draft, has had a strong rookie season. He looks like the real deal. Now it’s time for the Patriots to surround Maye with an improved offensive line and better pass-catchers, particularly at wide receiver. New England also has glaring weaknesses at edge rusher and cornerback that need to be addressed in the draft.
The 2025 draft class is headlined by two quarterbacks — Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. They are the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in nearly all expert mock drafts right now. In fact, those two players are likely to be the only QBs taken in the first round, although it’s possible someone else could rocket up the draft rankings with a great performance at the NFL Scouting Combine and/or Pro Days.
What would be the value of the No. 1 pick if the Patriots landed it? The No. 1 pick has been traded just three times since 2000 and twice in the last eight years.
Let’s take a look at the last two No. 1 pick trades and how it worked out for the teams involved. After that, we’ll break down potential trade partners for the Patriots, assuming they own the top pick.
2023 NFL Draft
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Carolina Panthers receive: 2023 first-round pick (No. 1)
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Chicago Bears receive: WR D.J. Moore, 2023 first-round pick (No. 9), 2023 second-round pick (No. 61), 2024 first-round pick (No. 1), 2025 second-round pick (currently No. 37)
The Panthers really wanted Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, and they paid a very heavy price to move up from No. 9 to No. 1 to select him. Young hasn’t played very well for the Panthers, although in fairness, he doesn’t have much talent around him.
Making matters worse for Carolina is it took Young over C.J. Stroud, who went No. 2 to the Texans and has led Houston to back-to-back playoff appearances.
The Panthers were so bad in 2023 that the 2024 first-rounder they traded to the Bears ended up being the No. 1 pick. Chicago used that pick to take USC quarterback Caleb Williams, who had a good but not great rookie campaign. The Bears also selected Tennessee left tackle Darnell Wright with the 2023 first-rounder from the Panthers, and they got Miami cornerback Tyrique Stevenson with the 2023 second-rounder from Carolina.
D.J. Moore is a very good veteran wideout who has tallied 89 receptions, 880 yards and five touchdowns in 16 games this season. He caught 96 passes for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns for the Bears last season.
This trade will be completed in the 2025 draft when the Panthers send their second-round pick, currently No. 37 overall), to the Bears.
It remains to be seen how Young will ultimately fare in Carolina, but so far, this trade has been a decisive win for Chicago.
2016 NFL Draft
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Rams receive: 2016 first-round pick (No. 1), 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 113), 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 177)
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Titans receive: 2016 first-round pick (No. 15), 2016 second-round picks (Nos. 43 and 45), 2016 third-round pick (No. 76), 2017 first-round pick (No. 5), 2017 third-round pick (No. 100)
The Rams needed a franchise quarterback and believed Jared Goff could be that guy, so they gave up a huge haul to land the University of California star.
The Titans had selected quarterback Marcus Mariota with the No. 2 pick a year earlier, so they didn’t need a QB in the first round in 2016. The Titans got the No. 15 pick in 2016 and used it to trade up for offensive tackle Jack Conklin, who was an All-Pro as a rookie.
The Titans used the No. 45 overall pick from the Rams to select Alabama running back Derrick Henry in the second round, and that was an amazing pick for Tennessee. Henry is one of the best running backs of the last decade. The Titans whiffed on their 2017 first-round pick from the Rams when they selected Western Michigan wideout Corey Davis at No. 5 overall in 2017. The next three picks were Jamal Adams, Mike Williams and Christian McCaffrey. But in the third round, the Titans drafted Jonnu Smith, who was a solid tight end for Tennessee.
Goff led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII but lost 13-3 to the Patriots. He was eventually traded to the Detroit Lions before the 2021 season in a deal that sent quarterback Matthew Stafford to the Rams. Stafford led the Rams to a Super Bowl LIV win over the Bengals, so in a roundabout way, the trade worked out well for Los Angeles.
It was a solid deal for the Titans, too. Conklin, Henry and Smith were all quality players.
Potential trade partners for Patriots
The teams in the top 10 of the 2025 draft order entering Week 18 that need a quarterback upgrade include the Titans (No. 2), Browns (No. 3), Giants (No. 4), Jets (No. 7), Raiders (No. 8) and Saints (No. 10).
So it’s possible the Patriots could have a lot of options to trade down in the top 10 if they do secure the No. 1 pick.
“That’s the key here, you want volume of draft picks. We’ve seen what a high draft pick can go for,” The MMQB’s Albert Breer said on NBC Sports Boston’s Sports Sunday, as seen in the video player above.
“So if I’m a Patriots fan, I’m rooting for two things: A loss on Sunday to Mitch Trubisky and the Bills, and Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders to get red-hot over the next two to three months. To the point where these quarterback-needy teams behind you — the Raiders I think will be under a mandate to draft (a QB) from their owner, the Giants need one, the Titans need one. You’re able to create a market for that pick. All the stuff about being competitive and setting a winning culture, you’re not doing that on Sunday.”
The ideal scenario for the Patriots if they trade the No. 1 pick might look something like what the Bears got from the Panthers. Chicago received a proven veteran wide receiver, stayed in the top 10 (Bears went from No. 1 to No. 9), and also got several future draft picks including a future first-rounder.
The Browns, Jets and Raiders have all drafted poorly with very few playoff appearances between them over the last 20 years. Getting a future first-rounder from any of those three teams would be a good outcome for the Patriots.
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