Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
College Football Playoff odds in the first round couldn’t have gone much better for the public betting masses, as straight bets and parlays to the favorites paid out with relative ease.
“The bettors were happy with every single favorite covering. And the action was phenomenal, close to standard NFL games,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “We’re excited to see games this early that actually matter.”
The Dec. 31/Jan. 1 quarterfinals matter even more.
Will the favorites continue to roll, or will a big ‘dog such as Boise State or Arizona State spring an upset?
Bookmakers serve up their insights on College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds.
Ahead of the Curve
The majority of sportsbooks opened No. 7 Notre Dame as a slim favorite against No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Part of the reasoning behind that: Georgia quarterback Carson Beck won’t be under center.
Beck suffered an elbow injury in the Bulldogs’ 22-19 overtime win vs. Texas in the SEC Championship Game. He had surgery on Monday, so his season is over. Redshirt sophomore Gunner Stockton will lead the Bulldogs against the Fighting Irish.
But where other sportsbooks zigged, Caesars Sports modestly zagged, opening at Georgia -1.5. And the subsequent point-spread movement at other books proved Caesars right, as everyone else fell in line.
“We went with Georgia as the favorite. That’s who we think is the better team,” Feazel said. “We were on the right side of the move.”
Caesars moved to Georgia -2 briefly on Monday, before returning to -1.5 for this 8:45 p.m. kickoff on New Year’s Day.
“The strength of this Georgia team is not the quarterback — it’s the players around him,” Feazel said. “This is a big step up in class for Notre Dame, especially for the defense that the Irish is going to face.
“Right now, the action we’re seeing is pretty even on each side. I’m not sure where bettors are gonna lean, but it’s the game we’re most looking forward to.”
Feazel’s opinion of Georgia notwithstanding, there’s a dichotomy worth pointing out: Notre Dame is one of the best spread-covering teams in the nation, and Georgia is one of the worst.
The Fighting Irish are 12-1 straight up (SU) and 11-2 against the spread (ATS). Georgia is 11-2 SU and a dismal 4-9 ATS.
Marcus Freeman breaks down what sets Riley Leonard apart
New Year’s Eve Party
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State kicks off the CFP quarterfinals at 7:30 p.m. ET on New Year’s Eve. The Broncos got the bye and the higher seed, but oddsmakers have the Nittany Lions as substantial 11-point favorites in the Fiesta Bowl.
“We opened Penn State -10 and briefly went down to -9.5. And then we saw action to draw this up to -11,” Feazel said. “Eleven is kind of no-man’s land. It’ll probably stay between 10-13 through this weekend.”
Boise State is 12-1 SU/7-5-1 ATS, while Penn State — coming off a 38-10 blowout of No. 10 SMU as a 9-point home favorite — is 12-2 SU/7-7 ATS. Neither team has been dynamic at covering for bettors, but Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its last six games.
“Right now, there’s not much action,” Feazel said. “It’s mostly Boise State money and Under money so far. But the public will be on the favorite.”
Betting the Big ‘Dog
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State features the biggest point spread in College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds. The Longhorns (12-2 SU/8-6 ATS) are 14-point favorites against the Sun Devils (11-2 SU and ATS).
Texas is coming off an impressive 38-24 first-round win over No. 12 seed Clemson as 13.5-point home favorites. Arizona State got a first-round bye into the Peach Bowl, set for 1 p.m. ET New Year’s Day.
“On this one, we are seeing some ‘dog money on Arizona State, especially on the moneyline. We’ll see if that remains true,” Feazel said, adding he expects Texas to get plenty of public support on the point spread.
The Sun Devils are +400 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet would profit $400 (total payout $500) if ASU pulls off the upset. It’s a big ask, but it’ll be a nice windfall if Arizona State is up to the task.
Ohio State Buckeyes crush Tennessee: How impressive was their gameplan?
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone got a first-round CFP win, taking Notre Dame -7 in its 27-17 victory over Indiana. He’s got another play lined up for Texas vs. Arizona State in the quarterfinals.
Texas was expected to be here. ASU, not so much. The Longhorns are the only team to reach the playoff last season and this season. Meanwhile, the surprising Sun Devils won just three games last season. This season, ASU was picked by Big 12 media to finish last in the 16-team conference.
Texas is a 13.5-point favorite over Arizona State and its energetic 34-year-old coach Kenny Dillingham. Stone believes the Sun Devils might give the Longhorns all they can handle. He recommends taking the generous points at ASU +13.5.
“Arizona State has been a moneymaker for its backers all season long. The Sun Devils are 11-2 against the spread this season, and that includes a current streak of six straight covers,” Stone said, noting that during the 6-0 ATS run, ASU beat the spread by an average of 16 points. “The market continues to underestimate this team, in my opinion.”
Arizona State tailback Cam Skattebo has 1,568 rushing yards, despite missing a game due to injury. Skattebo averages 6.0 yards per carry. Texas’ highly-regarded defense only allows 104.5 rushing yards per game and just 3.1 yards per carry.
So something has to give in this matchup.
“Skattebo is going to have to run the ball effectively for the Sun Devils to keep it close,” Stone said. “I’m banking on him getting his yards.”
Coming Up Roses
The Rose Bowl, with a 5 p.m. ET kick on New Year’s Day, almost looks like a traditional matchup. Oregon, formerly with the Pac-12, meets traditional Big Ten powerhouse Ohio State. Except both teams are now in the Big Ten.
Plus, they’ve already met once this season. In Week 7, the Buckeyes went to Eugene as 3.5-point favorites. But the Ducks prevailed, 32-31.
Now, on a neutral site, Ohio State (11-2 SU/7-6 ATS) is again the favorite, despite Oregon’s perfect record (13-0 SU/7-6 ATS). Caesars opened the Buckeyes -1 and is already up to -2.5.
“It’s a revenge spot, and Ohio State certainly wanted this game. But this Oregon team is no slouch,” Feazel said. “I would not be surprised if the line gets to 3. There’s a lot of Ohio State action and a lot of Over action.”
Texas beats Clemson: Did Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns make a statement in 38-24 win?
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
As mentioned in this space a couple times recently, the biggest reported bet on College Football Playoff championship futures landed on Texas. A Louisiana customer of Caesars Sports dropped $1.5 million on the Longhorns at +390 to win the national title.
Texas got win No. 1 out of the way, dispatching Clemson. If the Longhorns win three more, then the bettor will reap a huge windfall of $5.85 million, for a total payout of $7.35 million.
But some of the more interesting wagers out there came earlier in the season and were much smaller bets on teams with much longer odds at the time.
For example, on Sept. 9, after Notre Dame’s shocking 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois, a Caesars bettor decided to jump on oddsmakers’ immediate reaction. The customer put $500 on the Fighting Irish at +8000 (80/1) to win the national title.
If Notre Dame goes the distance, then the bettor profits $40,000.
The Fighting Irish are now the +550 co-fifth choice among the eight remaining teams. That means it would now take a $7,273 bet to profit $40,000.
With Notre Dame expected to be competitive vs. Georgia in the quarterfinals, that’s a pretty good ticket to have in hand. We’ll see if it holds up through New Year’s Day.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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