It’s Week 17 — the final week for most fantasy managers! In this week’s article, we’ve got one quarterback and multiple flex plays who have shown upside in the past, but a lack of reliability throughout the season with volatile production and unclear pecking orders. Are we taking chances on these players in Week 17? Who can we trust?
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
It feels fitting that Week 17’s make-or-break article would feature the receiver who finished as the overall WR1 in Week 1 but quickly tumbled into being one of the most extreme volatility receivers in the NFL. Reed has the potential to finish as the overall WR1 or post zero fantasy points in any given week.
Over the past two weeks, Reed has at least provided a more stable floor with 10 fantasy points in Week 16 against New Orleans and nine fantasy points in Week 15 against Seattle. However, the lack of touchdowns continues to limit his upside.
The offense runs aggressively through Josh Jacobs and it’s been highly effective. It’s reasonable to expect them to stick with that game script. However, from a fantasy perspective, one issue Green Bay faces — and a potential benefit for us — is that attacking Minnesota on the ground hasn’t been the most effective strategy. Jacobs could still have a strong game, but Minnesota’s offense often forces opponents to push passing volume to keep pace.
We saw this earlier in the season when the Packers and Vikings faced off in Week 4. That game featured a combined 60 points, with the Vikings allowing 389 passing yards and four passing touchdowns to Jordan Love, both season highs. Notably, that was Jayden Reed’s second-best game of the season. He caught seven of eight targets for 139 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the overall WR2.
Will Reed make or break your lineup in Week 17?
While the Packers’ offensive identity has shifted since that matchup, another high-volume game from both sides is a reasonable expectation. Reed matches up well against the Vikings’ defense, and those middling, underwhelming performances we’ve endured could finally lead to a massive ceiling game for him.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
Let’s kick things off with my favorite make-or-break player for the week – Bryce Young. Young is coming off his best performance of the season, scoring 27 fantasy points and finishing as the overall QB2. While his passing volume wasn’t high – he threw for just 158 yards – his rushing upside continued to drive his fantasy production. He had three total touchdowns and ended the Arizona Cardinals’ season.
Carolina often gets written off as a terrible team, but they’ve clearly improved in the second half of the season. While Young still has areas to develop, he offers top-10 upside this week in a fantastic matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
We’ve seen this matchup recently in Week 13, and unlike last week’s game against a solid Arizona defense, the Tampa Bay game was all about volume. In that matchup, he attempted a season-high 46 passes, throwing for 298 yards and one passing touchdown while adding another score on the ground. He finished as QB8, but there’s room for even more production this time around.
Will Young make or break your lineup in Week 17?
In the Week 13 game, Young completed just 26 of those 46 attempts. Adam Thielen had a fantastic game, but the rest of the receiving corps underperformed. Notably, Jalen Coker was absent for that matchup. While Coker is a volatile option, his presence rounds out the receiving corps and provides additional firepower against Tampa’s defense. Young is one of my favorite streaming options this week, with a strong chance for a high-volume performance and top-10 upside.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Bronocs
The most frustrating thing for any fantasy manager unfortunate enough to roster Williams has been figuring out if he’s truly the RB1 in the Broncos’ offense on a week-to-week basis. The problem, as we’ve discussed before, is the complete lack of consistency in Denver’s running back room.
Last week was a prime example. After multiple games of being virtually invisible, Audric Estimé suddenly split carries with Williams on the first drive and even scored the goal-line touchdown. Williams wasn’t injured or ineffective; he didn’t do anything wrong, but from that point forward, he logged just two carries. Estimé primarily handled early-down work, while Williams was relegated to a receiving role.
That receiving role did lead to seven receptions on 11 targets, which is impressive. However, it only amounted to 29 yards, leaving Williams with just nine fantasy points in half-PPR formats. If you’ve followed this column all season, you know whenever Williams shows up here, it’s typically to recommend avoiding him altogether. However, a matchup against Cincinnati could change my tune.
Will Williams make or break your lineup in Week 17?
Last week, we discussed trusting Jerome Ford in a layup matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. While the Browns’ offense was certainly risky with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Bengals’ defense is just too good to pass up. Despite Cleveland having scored just six points, Ford finished the RB9 overall. Williams can benefit from the matchup but we should recognize that his situation is much different than Ford’s. Ford was a clear lead back, volume play. Williams’ volume is not a guarantee.
To be clear, I remain highly uncomfortable recommending Williams as a start. That said, this game profiles as high-scoring, with a projected point total of 49.5. Strong offenses on both sides, potential goal-line opportunities and Williams’ receiving upside make him a viable, albeit risky, play this week.
Tank Bigsby & Travis Etienne Jr., RBs, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars face a Tennessee defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs but can we trust any Jacksonville running back this week? The Jaguars’ backfield has been frustratingly straightforward; there’s no true lead back and volume is fairly evenly split between Bigsby and Etienne.
There are exceptions, though, and one of them came in the last matchup between these two teams. In that game, Bigsby logged 18 carries to just four for Etienne. However, from a fantasy perspective, their outputs weren’t significantly different. Bigsby scored 13 fantasy points (RB19), while Etienne had nine (RB28).
This backfield split is frustrating because it caps both players’ ceilings while still providing a surprisingly low floor. Consistently landing in the 5-12 fantasy point range. Both are talented and explosive, but they exist firmly in flex territory, much like Javonte Williams.
Will Bigsby or Etienne make or break your lineup in Week 17?
While the previous matchup between the Jaguars and Titans was underwhelming, I have slightly higher hopes for Jacksonville’s offense this week. Mac Jones has settled into his starting roll and although the team remains underwhelming overall, they’ve moved the ball well enough to spark a mild uptick in production. The game script should remain relatively close, which benefits Bigsby.
Tennessee’s defense has allowed over 90 rushing yards to the opposing lead back in three consecutive games. If nothing else, volume should provide a decent floor. Cross your fingers for a touchdown to push either Bigsby into a more productive fantasy outing.
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