The first round of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff is in the books.
Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State came out of the weekend victorious, punching their tickets to the quarterfinals. Unlike this past weekend’s games, the next four matchups will be bowl games held at neutral sites on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
As we still have some time to preview the four quarterfinal games, FOX Sports college football analyst R.J. Young shared the three biggest things we learned from the first round.
1. Playoff teams get wrecked — all the time.
While there seemed to be much consternation over the results of the first-round games, Young wants to send a reminder that what happened over the weekend isn’t a new development in the CFP era.
“LSU beat Oklahoma 63-28 in 2019. Oregon smashed Florida State 59-20 in 2014. Clemson rocked Ohio State 31-0 in 2016,” Young said. “This isn’t the first time we’ve seen teams with great records get trounced in the playoffs. It’s just the first time we’ve seen it with home-field advantage.”
To Young’s point, 14 of the 30 games in the four-team version of the CFP were determined by at least 20 points. Twenty of them were won by at least two scores.
Moreover, of the 12 teams in the playoff field this season, six of them lost a game by multiple scores earlier this year. Two of the first four teams left out of the CFP bracket also dropped a game by at least two scores this season.
2. Ohio State is the only first-round winner that looks like it can win it all.
Of the four winners from the games over the weekend, Young believes one of them shined more than the rest.
“The Buckeyes put up 42 points on a team that had not allowed more than 30 all year long and held that offense to 10 points when it scored at least 14 in every other game it played,” Young said. “This wasn’t a fluke, it was a promise — one that it plans to keep when it plays Oregon in the Rose Bowl.”
Even though all four teams won their games by at least two scores, Ohio State’s 42-17 win over Tennessee seemed to be the most decisive. Clemson lingered and had a fourth-and-goal opportunity to cut Texas’ lead to one score in the fourth quarter of its 38-24 loss. Indiana made a late push in its loss to Notre Dame, falling 27-17.
Penn State’s 38-10 win over SMU was the largest margin of victory over the weekend. However, SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings gifted Penn State an early 14-0 lead with the two pick-sixes he threw. SMU actually had more first downs than Penn State (21-18), while the Nittany Lions only outgained the Mustangs by 72 yards.
Ohio State, meanwhile, was dominant from start to finish against Tennessee. The Buckeyes scored a touchdown on each of their first three drives, dictating play to take a 21-0 lead. They were close to scoring a touchdown on the fourth drive, too, getting down to Tennessee’s 20-yard line before a pass Will Howard threw into the end zone took a bad bounce that led to a highlight-reel interception for Volunteers defensive back Will Brooks.
Tennessee made it a little interesting before halftime, cutting Ohio State’s deficit to 21-10. But the Buckeyes rattled off 21 straight points, scoring on their first three possessions of the second half. Tennessee didn’t find the end zone again until its offense was facing backups with less than two minutes remaining, which was why Young said that Ohio State essentially held the Volunteers to 10 points.
Ohio State outgained Tennessee 472-256. Will Howard threw for over 300 yards and freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith had over 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Both TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins rushed for touchdowns, further proving that Ohio State can throw and run on just about anyone in the country. Tennessee’s defense is still ranked seventh in yards and scoring even after Saturday’s loss.
Ohio State will take on top-seeded Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The two teams met earlier in the year in Eugene, with Oregon winning by just one point as Howard memorably slid at the buzzer to prevent Ohio State from trying a game-winning field goal attempt.
3. If you didn’t have home-field advantage, you got smoked.
All four first-round games followed a similar storyline: home teams winning wire-to-wire by multiple scores over their road opponent. Young is not terribly surprised by that.
“College football provides the best home-field advantage in sports,” Young said. “That’s why none of the first-round games were a one-score game and the average margin of victory was more than 19 points.”
Each home team was favored by at least seven points and went a combined 24-4 at home this season. When you add the top two seeds’ home records, the top six teams have gone a combined 37-4 at home in 2024.
Ohio State, particularly, has been strong in Columbus over the last few years. Its only two losses at The Shoe since 2022 have been to Michigan, and it has only lost four games at home since the start of the 2016 season.
Meanwhile, the four road teams went a combined 2-6 against teams that were ranked in the final CFP poll this season, with one of those wins being Clemson’s over SMU in the ACC title game.
Suffice to say, it isn’t a shocking development that we got the results we did in the first round.
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