Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Set your Week 16 fantasy football lineups with Dalton Del Don’s key start/sit advice for every game on the slate.

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Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Start: Jerome Ford

Thompson-Robinson starting is bad news for Jerry Jeudy, but Ford is a sneaky play if you need an RB this week. He saw 84% of the snaps and every RB opportunity after Nick Chubb went down with a broken foot last week, and the Bengals have ceded the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks. Pierre Strong and D’Onta Foreman could also see work, but the Browns should shift to going run-heavy with DTR.

New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons

Start: Malik Nabers

Nabers surpassed a 40% target share last week for the fourth time this season, while no other wideout has done it more than twice. It also marked Nabers’ eighth game he’s seen a 40%+ first-read target share. Nabers’ role expanded last week, as he saw season highs in routes, targets, catches, yards and TDs from the slot, where he absolutely dominated in college. The Falcons have been gashed for the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks (and they just got to face Desmond Ridder), so Nabers gets a favorable (and fast-paced) matchup indoors Sunday (even with A.J. Terrell shadowing him).

Drew Lock is an upgrade over Tommy DeVito’s low aDOT/high sack combo. Nabers has a 28.4% target share during two games with Lock this season. The Giants have a lowly 16.75-point implied team total, so Nabers’ ceiling is likely limited. But he’s still a top-20 WR this week.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Start: Adam Thielen

Thielen led Carolina in routes run despite Jalen Coker’s return last week, seeing 67% of his snaps in the slot. Xavier Legette is out this week, and Coker could be hampered as he’s expected to play through a quad injury, so Thielen should be extra busy Sunday. The Cardinals have shut down outside receivers but have struggled to defend the slot, where they’ve allowed the second-highest target rate (51%) this season. Thielen also ranks top 25 in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage, which Arizona has used at the league’s 10th-highest rate.

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Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Start: Jared Goff

Goff is a safer start when at home (and indoors), but he’s gotten 9.0 YPA on the road this season. He has a 10:1 TD:INT ratio over the last three games, and Goff could continue to pass more with David Montgomery out and numerous injuries on Detroit’s defense. The Lions have a healthy 27.5-point implied team total, and the Bears’ pass defense has sunk from first in EPA/dropback allowed Weeks 1-8 down to 27th since then.

Sit Caleb Williams, who ranks last among 34 qualified quarterbacks in YPA (4.9!) against man coverage this season, which the Lions have used at the league’s highest rate (42.3%).

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Start: Anthony Richardson

Richardson has averaged nine rush attempts over four games since returning as the starter, including four carries inside the five. AR continues to battle accuracy issues, but no quarterback is throwing deeper downfield, and he’s faced the highest pressure% in the league since retaking the starting job in Week 11; Richardson ranks first in Big Time Throw% (9.3) when kept clean over that span. Injuries have hit a Tennessee secondary that ranks 28th in EPA/dropback allowed since Week 10. Titans’ opponents have the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation over the last month. The Colts are projected to score 23 points this week, so Richardson has upside.

Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets

Start: Cooper Kupp & Matthew Stafford

Kupp has taken a clear backseat to Puka Nacua, and he’s coming off a goose egg during the first week of the fantasy playoffs. In Kupp’s defense, both teams struggled badly passing during a game with rain that combined for zero touchdowns, but he’s now the WR57 over the last three weeks.

Kupp is clearly not the same player he once was, and Nacua has emerged as a true No. 1, but he gets a prime matchup to bounce back this week. The Jets have allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the last five weeks, and New York ranks 29th in EPA/dropback allowed since Week 9. Moreover, New York has ceded the most fantasy points to the slot, where Kupp has run 62% of his routes this season.

Stafford had a 10:0 TD:INT ratio over his previous four games before last week’s rainy slog that totaled just 18 points. The Rams have a 24.75-point implied team total, and a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers could make it a shootout Sunday. The Jets are a pass-funnel defense that’s been shutting down the run but has allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the last five weeks. New York ranks last in defensive EPA since firing Robert Saleh (they ranked fifth before). Jets’ opponents also sport the third highest pass rate over expectation over the last month. Stafford is a top-12 QB this week.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

Temper expectations: Brian Robinson Jr.

Robinson is the RB18 in “expert consensus ranks” this week, so you may not have better alternatives. But Robinson’s expectations need to be lowered against an Eagles’ defense allowing the lowest EPA/rush since Week 9. Philadelphia hasn’t let a running back run for 100 yards this season, and the Eagles have ceded the fewest rush schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs over the last five weeks. Robinson’s role remains strong (and he’s always a threat to score a couple of goal-line TDs), but he’s averaged just 38.7 rushing yards during losses this year, and the Commanders are 4-point underdogs Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

Start: DK Metcalf

Metcalf saw the fewest targets (three) in a game he didn’t leave injured since his rookie season last week, but he gets a nice spot to bounce back Sunday. Geno Smith (and Metcalf) returned to a full practice this week, as Metcalf would’ve otherwise been a bench candidate with Sam Howell starting. Metcalf leads Seattle in target rate (19.2%) versus zone coverage this season, which Minnesota has used at the league’s fifth-highest rate (77.0%). The Vikings have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to outside receivers this season, but they’ve yielded the second-fewest ANY/A (5.1) to the slot since Week 8 (where Jaxon Smith-Njigba has run 86% of his routes this year).

Vikings’ opponents have the league’s highest pass rate (64%) and have averaged the most pass attempts (37.9) this season. Metcalf is due for touchdown regression (and more targets!) and should remain in fantasy lineups this week.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson has averaged 16.8 fantasy points (would be the RB5 this season) during wins but just 9.9 (RB31) in losses this year. The Patriots are a whopping 14-point underdogs this week, sporting a lowly 16.25-point implied team total. The Bills have been far less vulnerable to fantasy backs over the last five weeks, and this matchup is likely to be slow-paced. Look for alternatives to Stevenson this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders

Start: Jakobi Meyers

Meyers has seen the second-most targets (45) and air yards (447) in the league over the last month — and that was with Desmond Ridder starting last week. Aidan O’Connell’s return is a boost for Meyers. The Jaguars have allowed the third most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and this matchup should be fast-paced. Meyers’ target rate has jumped to 25.5% versus man coverage this season, which Jacksonville has used at the league’s fourth-highest rate (38.2%).

San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins

Start: Jauan Jennings

Jennings is coming off a quiet fantasy performance, but he saw a 29% target rate and suffered from a game in which weather greatly affected passing. The 49ers are down to their No. 5 running back this season with Isaac Guerendo injured, so San Francisco could pass more than usual. Jennings owns a 35.5% first-read target share since Brandon Aiyuk went down (Week 7), and he ranks fifth in yards per route run (2.64) this season. Jennings is a top-15 WR this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys

Start: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield has enjoyed a healthy Mike Evans while tossing seven touchdowns over the last two weeks. He should keep it going Sunday night against an injury-filled Dallas defense (albeit one that’s performed much better with Micah Parsons, who is likely to play through a stomach bug). The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points per dropback this season, and the Buccaneers have one of the highest implied team totals (26 points) this week.

Cooper Rush is a sleeper at QB this week, as he gets a pass-funnel Tampa Bay defense that blitzes heavily.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

Sit: Kendre Miller

Miller has impressed during limited work this season, and he should lead New Orleans’ backfield Monday night with Alvin Kamara out. But he has a tough setup on a completely depleted Saints team with one of this season’s lowest projected totals (14.25 points) this week. Spencer Rattler is starting at QB, and New Orleans’ top two WRs might be Kevin Austin Jr. and Dante Pettis. The Saints are 14-point underdogs, and the Packers haven’t let a running back rush for 75 yards since Week 8. Jamaal Williams figures to be more involved in a slow-paced matchup, so Miller is a fringe start Monday night.