Park Factors can dramatically influence a player’s fantasy baseball value.
Left-handed batters have seen a 42% increase in home runs when hitting in Cincinnati over the last three seasons, but they’ve experienced a 23% decrease in San Francisco.
Parks can also affect strikeouts and walks — not just power. And many other factors outside of just dimensions go into whether a venue benefits hitters or pitchers, including mound height, climate, wind and even umpire accuracy due to visibility.
Getting ahead of changes for 2025 — whether they be in park structure or players changing teams — will help win your fantasy league.
Coors Field remains a cheat code for fantasy hitters and a stay-away for pitchers. Thairo Estrada has hit .348 with four homers and three steals over 92 career ABs at Coors Field, so he’s a sleeper in 2025. Brenton Doyle posted a .211/.271/.364 line with a 76 wRC+ on the road last season, but he’s going as a top-85 pick in fantasy drafts thanks to Coors Field. Nolan Jones is a prime bounce-back candidate worth targeting in drafts.
Fenway Park is neutral for homers, but it ranks behind only Coors Field in Park Factor over the last three seasons. Garrett Crochet’s 2.53 SIERA would’ve led all qualified starters last year, and he’ll receive more run support with the Red Sox, but he’ll be pitching in a tougher environment in 2025. On the hitter’s side, Alex Bregman goes from a neutral park in Houston to a top-three hitter’s park in Boston. Bregman has hit .311/.458/.660 with nine homers over 131 career plate appearances in Fenway Park (including the postseason). He’s unlikely to hit many more home runs at his new home park, but Bregman’s batting average should benefit; he owns a lowly .276 BABIP over 2,000+ career ABs at Minute Maid Park.
Hunter Greene will have an especially difficult time maintaining last season’s .237 BABIP and 6.9% HR/FB rate while pitching half his games in Great American Smallpark.
Kauffman Stadium is different because only three parks have limited home runs more over the last three seasons (lefties had the lowest HR/FB% there over 2023-24), but offense ultimately thrives in Kansas City. Strikeouts have decreased an MLB-high 13% at Kauffman Stadium over the last three years. Bobby Witt Jr. hit .382 with a 202 wRC+ and a 1.117 OPS at home last season. He hit .284 with a 134 wRC+ and an .844 OPS on the road (despite hitting more home runs). Witt’s K% saw a dramatic decrease while at home, like most of his teammates. Cole Ragans, however, somehow saw his K% spike to 30.7 in Kauffman Stadium last year.
Target Field is an underrated park for producing run scoring. But it’s only marginally helpful with homers, and strikeouts (+5%) are favorable for pitchers.
Blake Snell is sure to give up more long balls leaving Oracle Park, which has decreased HR for RHB by 21% over the last three season. Meanwhile, Dodger Stadium has boosted them the most (+26%) over that span, so Snell’s 6.5% HR/FB rate last year could double this season. Teoscar Hernández went from posting an 84 wRC+ at home (Safeco Field) in 2023 to recording a 148 wRC+ in Dodger Stadium last season. His ADP is 50 picks higher in 2025 thanks to that dramatic upgrade in parks.
Paul Goldschmidt goes from Busch Stadium decreasing HR for RHB by 7% to Yankee Stadium, which has boosted them by 20%. He’s clearly on the downside of his career, but Goldschmidt still had a 113 wRC+ on the road last season (compared to 85 at home). His slugging percentage dropped 70 points in Busch Stadium, and now he’ll be hitting in baseball’s second-best place for right-handed power. Max Fried, however, is likely to give up more homers in 2025.
Gleyber Torres could bounce back at the plate in 2025, but he suffered a major downgrade in home parks for long balls; Comerica Park has decreased HR for RHB by 12% over the last three seasons.
Spencer Steer is likely to hit better at GAB in 2025 after posting just an 86 wRC+ at home last year. Matt McLain is someone to target in fantasy leagues. Austin Hays is a deep fantasy sleeper after landing in Cincinnati.
Jake Burger slugged 29 homers while playing half his games in Miami last year, where LoanDepot Park has suppressed HR for RHB by 14% over the last three seasons. He’s close to going from a bottom-five to a top-five situation for right-handed power with his move to Texas. Globe Life Field oddly played more pitcher-friendly than usual in 2024, but that’s likely to regress in 2025.
Ezequiel Tovar set the all-time record for swings and whiffs in a season last year, but he hit as many homers on the road as he did in Coors Field; his road wRC+ (104) was higher than at home (86). Tovar benefitted with a .367 BABIP in Coors Field, but his K% jumped to 30.1 in a park that’s decreased strikeouts an NL-high 13%. Tovar should perform better at home in 2025.
It’s unfortunate a true power lefty bat doesn’t exist in Cincinnati right now, as no park is more extreme than GAB (+42%!). Elly De La Cruz hit 19 of his 25 homers last season as a left-handed batter (and the switch-hitter’s OPS jumped more than 200 points), but his home/road splits were mostly even.
Target Field gives a modest boost to lefty power, but Max Kepler should hit more homers now that he’s in Citizens Bank Park. Left-handed batters have posted a 20.2% HR/FB rate in Citizens Bank Park over 2023-24, which is (just barely) behind Great American Ballpark. Kepler is a cheap source for 25 homers.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s 162-game pace after joining the Yankees last season was 39 home runs and 63 stolen bases. He was slugging just .378 in Miami and will continue to benefit from the move to Yankee Stadium. Cody Bellinger goes from one of the toughest parks on left-handed power in Wrigley Field (-10%) to one of the most favorable in Yankee Stadium (+19%). Bellinger had 15 expected home runs in Wrigley Field last year, but he had 24 in Yankee Stadium. The pull-happy Bellinger gets a real fantasy boost with the move to New York’s short right-field porch.
Juan Soto, however, gets a downgrade with his move across New York to Citi Field (-7%). Just for fun, Soto had 63 expected home runs last season if he played in Cincinnati.
Garrett Mitchell is a former first-round pick who could go 20/25 this year if health cooperates. He’s slated to hit cleanup in Milwaukee’s lineup, and American Family Field will help him be one of this year’s fantasy breakouts.
Los Angeles’ lineup is right-handed heavy, but Angel Stadium also boosts homers for RHB by 9%.
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