Fantasy Breakdown: Hurricanes Trade Martin Necas To Avalanche For Mikko Rantanen, Also Acquire Taylor Hall From Blackhawks

What an exciting Friday with a rare three-way blockbuster trade between the Avalanche, Hurricanes and Blackhawks, who brokered the swap of all-stars by retaining salary and getting a draft pick for their troubles. It’s been a while since we’ve had a blockbuster deal, and it’s a continuation of the Avs’ overhaul of their roster after acquiring Mackenzie Blackwood earlier this season.

Here’s the full trade:

Given how important Rantanen has been to the Avs, this is certainly jarring. The joke is Gabriel Landeskog gave up his knee (and potentially his career) to win the Cup, but now Rantanen is gone. Their Cup win was the last time Rantanen, Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon shared the ice. Think about that.

Clearly, with Rantanen up for a new deal, a contract impasse for the Avs’ hand. They could’ve kept an unsigned Rantanen for the playoff run, but risk losing him for nothing. Instead, they opted to act quickly, acquiring Martin Necas, who has one more year left on his deal, to replace him.

For the Canes, who were viewed with much skepticism after allowing Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce and Jake Guentzel to walk in free agency, this is arguably their boldest move in franchise history. Rantanen is re-united with fellow Finn Sebastian Aho, and now the task of re-signing Rantanen falls to the Canes. But, honestly, what would be a better way to convince Rantanen to re-sign by winning the Cup? With this move, the Canes are all-in.

There’s a lot to parse through, so let’s break it down through the fantasy lens and through it player by player.

Mikko Rantanen

He’s by far the most impactful player in this trade. On pace for his third consecutive 100-point season, only five players have scored more points than Rantanen during this time: McDavid, Kucherov, MacKinnon, Draisaitl and Pastrnak.

Here’s the rub: under Rod Brind’Amour, no Hurricane has finished with more than 89 points in a season, and that high watermark was set last season by Aho. (It’s worth pointing out the biggest winner in this trade might be Aho).

There is zero doubt Rantanen makes the Canes offense better and the fit is good; he’s going from one really good possession team to one that’s arguably the best. The question now is if Rantanen forces Brind’Amour to play him significant minutes with Aho. Rantanen’s averaged close to 23 minutes per game over the past three seasons, while Aho hovers around 20.

(It would be illogical to assume Rantanen plays anywhere else in the lineup and – correct me if I’m wrong – this also re-unites Aho and Rantanen for the first time since they played together at the 2015 World Juniors).

My guess is that Rantanen’s minutes gets cut back to around 20-21 minutes per game from 23. The Canes have been wildly successful – in the regular season, at least – spreading the minutes around and scoring by committee, and while Rantanen changes that dynamic, I find it hard to believe they will give up their structure and playing style so flippantly for a newly-acquired player they have yet to re-sign long term.

Fantasy stock: Slightly down, but Rantanen remains a potential top-10 fantasy player. If Rantanen’s minutes are cut back – and I think they will – we should presumably assume a marginal, but perhaps not insignificant, decline in point production.

Martin Necas

On the flip side, the Avs now have a huge void where they need to replace the equivalent of 23 minutes of Rantanen’s production. Necas alone won’t do that, but he will take the bulk of those minutes. As it stands, the most logical fit for Necas would be on Nathan MacKinnon’s right wing, but we don’t know how they will mesh. I expect Necas’ ice time to get bumped from 18 to 20 minutes per game, with the rest scattered throughout the lineup.

Does swapping Rantanen for Necas make the Avs a weaker team offensively? Yes, I don’t think there’s much doubt about that. It may adversely impact MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s fantasy values, and the Avs’ depth scoring can be just as thin as prior to the trade. Given Jared Bednar’s propensity to lean on his horses, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see MacKinnon skate 25 minutes a night, and Necas getting close to 23. Necas’ speed is going to be a weapon the Avs will utilize, and it might sound impossible but MacKinnon might even play faster.

Mea culpa if you had listened to me previously and sold high on Necas – but nobody saw this trade coming this early. Necas’ blistering start slowed down where he would’ve finished the season around a point per game. He scored at a 126-point pace in the first two months but slowed to a 59-point pace over the past two months; with the trade, his scoring will probably tick back up and may finish with around 90 to 100 points.

It’s also worth noting that Necas spent most of the season dragging along Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Playing with MacKinnon represents a major upgrade, like going from a banana peel to a golden mushroom in Mario Kart, and it’s an upgrade over Aho, too.

Fantasy stock: Up, given increased minutes and the opportunity to play alongside MacKinnon. The risk is the lack of chemistry, and it may take time for the pair to gel.

Nathan MacKinnon

The loss of Rantanen will hurt. Going from Necas to Rantanen is definitely a downgrade, though Necas and MacKinnon should form a very productive pair. Necas’ speed is an asset, and his playing style shouldn’t take much of an adjustment.

I do think MacKinnon’s fantasy value takes a slight hit, though I imagine he’ll finish a top-three fantasy player no matter what. In the immediate aftermath, especially with the Avs playing an early matinee in Boston on Saturday, I suspect MacKinnon will play a ton of minutes – more so than usual, anyway.

The Avs have some quality depth but there’s no one in particular that stands out. MacKinnon now stands alone at the top without a proper sidekick, and it’s up to him to carry the offense by himself. Maybe that’s good because it’ll force him to shoot the puck all the time, but no one will be able to finish his plays.

Fantasy stock: Slightly down. Despite being an elite player, not having an elite linemate will hurt MacKinnon’s scoring production, albeit marginally. I still expect MacKinnon to finish top-three in scoring and in fantasy value by the end of the season.

Taylor Hall

It’s weird to say but Hall’s fantasy value might see the most significant change even though he wasn’t the centerpiece of the deal. He goes from the offensively feeble Hawks – even though it’s improved under Sorensen – to a team that plays a blistering pace with skill all over the lineup.

It remains to be seen where Hall plays. The most optimal spot for his fantasy value would be on Aho and Rantanen’s left wing, but he’ll have to beat out at least two other players (Svechnikov and Jarvis) for that spot, and it’s highly unlikely.

My best guess is Hall ends on a line with Kotkaniemi that has no discernible skill other than the ability to execute Brind’Amour’s game plan. The real difference makers are Aho’s line and Staal’s line, with Kotkaniemi’s line eating up whatever minutes are left behind.

Depending on deployment, Hall could remain as waiver wire fodder or pick up a lot of fantasy value really quickly. I would bet on the former; his minutes likely won’t increase significantly and his shooting volume is unlikely to spike by a significant margin. Still, I’d keep an eye out for him and see how he’s deployed, but more out of curiosity than anything.

Fantasy stock: Up, but to what level is the key question. For now, there’s no rush to roster Hall on your fantasy team unless he gets consistent top-six and PP deployment, which seems unlikely.

Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, Jack Roslovic and Jackson Blake

Aho’s three most common linemates at 5-on-5 based on minutes played: Roslovic (390:22), Jarvis (317:42) and Svechnikov (314:27).

Roslovic was worth rostering for a hot minute in fantasy when he was scoring goals, but a regression was always coming after shooting at a 20 percent clip in the first three months. He has not scored a goal since Dec. 31, and his ice time has rapidly declined after he was bumped to the fourth line. If Aho’s not setting up easy goals for Roslovic, he’s not doing a whole lot. I don’t think any of this is surprising, and the inclusion of Rantanen means Roslovic will likely not play on the top line at any point for the rest of the season.

Aho played between Svechnikov and Blake in their most recent game, and the most obvious candidate to get dropped is Blake. I like Blake’s game, and I think he can be a good streaming option if he plays L1, but not getting those minutes means he’s far less attractive.

Svechnikov should get a big boost. He already plays well with Aho, and Rantanen increases their offensive potency. Rantanen’s already got some built-in chemistry with Aho, so it should work really well (at least on paper). Svechnikov has managed to stay healthy all season but has not scored at the same pace as he had in the previous two seasons (0.69 P/GP vs. 0.87 P/GP) due to inconsistency and different deployment. Perhaps Rantanen is the catalyst for getting back Svechnikov back to his previous pace.

Jarvis gets a slight boost because he’ll only benefit when the Canes are on the power play. He’s an excellent, versatile player, and the Canes have found a good spot for him with Jordan Martinook and Jordan Staal. I suspect this will be Brind’Amour’s matchup line, so offense will be their secondary goal in most cases.

Fantasy stock: Down for Roslovic and Blake due to decreased playing time in the top six. Svechnikov gets the biggest boost since he’ll share the ice with Aho and Rantanen at both even strength and on the power play, while Jarvis will only join them on the power play.

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