Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
We’re headed for an NFL Conference Championship Weekend with a few big dogs and a surprising upstart.
Will Buffalo finally break through against Kansas City in the postseason? Can Washington upset division-rival Philadelphia?
Let’s dive into my best bets for the AFC and NFC title games.
(All times ET)
SUNDAY, JAN. 26
Commanders @ Eagles (1 p.m., FOX/FOX Sports App)
An NFC East battle for a trip to the Super Bowl — not what we predicted but an awesome matchup nonetheless.
The Eagles beat the Commanders earlier in the season, while the Commanders returned the favor near the end of the season. In Week 16, the Eagles went up 14-0, lost quarterback Jalen Hurts to a concussion, and then the Commanders rallied back to win 36-33 on the final play of the game.
The Eagles enter this game after a 22-10 win over the Packers followed by a 28-22 win over the Rams — but both scores are not indicative of how the games went. The Eagles beat both teams handily for most of the game, controlling the line of scrimmage in each contest. The Eagles’ Saquon Barkley has 51 rushes for 324 yards, while the Eagles defensive line has seven sacks and double-digit tackles for loss.
The Commanders come to Philadelphia after back-to-back road wins as underdogs. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been fantastic, and we can no longer consider him a first-year player ahead of this contest. The Commanders are clearly playing well together and have faith in the plan.
Is that enough to win this weekend? Let’s dig in.
The Commanders’ story is a great one. They have a rookie quarterback who appears like he’s ascended into the upper tier of the position after just one season. He looks unfazed by the occasion, but this spot is difficult for many newcomers to the league. It’s why we’ve seen the five rookies who have quarterbacked in conference title games all take a loss.
The Washington offense vs. the Philly defense will be the key matchup on Sunday. The Eagles defensive line is a problem and the Commanders are without their best guard. Jalen Carter could wreck the game by his lonesome on behalf of the Eagles.
To combat the Eagles defensive line, I would expect the Commanders to continue to use tempo and no huddle for two reasons. First would be to tire out the Eagles. If you line up quickly and snap the ball, you get them winded. Secondly, when you use tempo, it’s normal not to substitute during that time. If you do not sub, the defense is unlikely to sub. That gets the big fellas tired. We saw some of that tempo against the Lions defense.
Daniels attempted 19 pass attempts in the first half against the Lions with this offensive mindset: tempo, quick to the line and get the ball out quickly. He only finished with 31 pass attempts because of the score. I would expect Daniels to exceed that number of attempts in this game, with the Commanders trying to keep up with the Eagles and/or being behind.
Daniels attempted 32 passes against the Eagles in the first meeting and 39 in the second one. He attempted 35 passes against Tampa Bay in the first playoff game. In other words, he’s got to throw the ball for the Commanders to keep it close.
PICK: Jayden Daniels Over 32.5 pass attempts
Eagles-Commanders: NFC Championship Super 6 bets
In games where I believe the Eagles have a rushing advantage, and/or will be playing from ahead, I like to take Kenneth Gainwell Over rushing yards. He went over 9.5 last weekend on only one attempt, which is low for him. In both Commanders’ games this season, he was at four carries a game. Gainwell is also the third-down running back, and the Eagles often run the ball on third down.
I like Gainwell Over rushing.
PICK: Kenneth Gainwell Over 11.5 rushing yards
Bills @ Chiefs (4:30 p.m., CBS/Paramount+)
My favorite wager of championship weekend comes from this game. I like Josh Allen to continue to use his legs against the Chiefs like Allen has done in their previous playoff matchups.
Allen has faced the Chiefs three times in the postseason and he’s rushed for 88 yards, 68 yards and 72 yards in those three games. If you recall when the Bills played the Chiefs in Week 10, Allen had a game-clinching touchdown run.
And please understand, there are reasons why Allen continues to rush the ball well against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs defense is heavy on man coverage, along with pressuring the quarterback. When you pressure and play man coverage, the opportunities for the quarterback to run for big yardage increase, as defenders are stuck on their assignments and the defenders rushing the passer might not reach the quarterback.
The evidence is in the playoff results.
Quarterbacks rush for more yards than their average against the Chiefs. Last weekend, C.J. Stroud rushed for 42 yards after averaging only 13.7 yards this season. In the playoffs last season, Brock Purdy rushed for 12 yards in the Super Bowl, more than his weekly rushing average.
In the 2023 playoffs, Lamar Jackson rushed for 54 yards, Allen for 72 and Tua Tagovailoa for 25, which is 21 yards more than he averaged per week.
You get the picture.
Lastly: In these big Buffalo games, Allen becomes part of the rushing game plan. The Bills use him on quarterback runs and third-down sweeps. Quarterback runs are efficient and difficult to defend. It puts Allen on safeties or even linebackers who he can run past.
PICK: Josh Allen Over 48.5 rushing yards
Outside of Travis Kelce, it’s always interesting to see who Patrick Mahomes will target in the passing game. He tends to revert to players that he trusts and one of those is backup tight end Noah Gray.
The Chiefs play Gray more than most backup tight ends with their 12 personnel packages, and he gets a decent workload when teams attempt to double-team Kelce. In the Chiefs’ last five playoff games, Gray has at least 13 yards receiving in four of those five games. One of those games was against the Bills and in the other three during his career against Buffalo, he’s had 14, 16 and 23 yards. He’s a guy the Chiefs tend to target against Buffalo.
PICK: Noah Gray Over 14.5 receiving yards
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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