Hope is a dangerous beast.
Or, in other words: Roki Sasaki is a Los Angeles Dodger, and few in the baseball industry are particularly surprised.
The 23-year-old Japanese hurler, one of the most promising talents in the nation’s storied baseball history, announced Friday on Instagram that he agreed to a deal with the defending World Series champs. For Dodgers fans, it’s cause for celebration. For the rest of the league, it’s a disappointing conclusion to a fascinating free agency and another reason to gripe and groan about the growing might of MLB’s new evil empire.
Frustration, from the fan bases and front offices that missed out, is justifiable and understandable. So, too, is the decision Sasaki made for himself.
Los Angeles is the optimal place for him to develop into the player he wants to be. He can find comfort and guidance in being around Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, his countrymen and teammates on the Japanese national team. The Dodgers develop pitching at an elite level. Being a Dodger seems like a nice life. It’s a reasonable, rational choice.
But from an entertainment perspective, it’s underwhelming, dispiriting. The rich are getting even richer, the strong even stronger. The Dodgers, a team with an armada of superstars, add yet another, this time at a bargain-bin price. Chavez Ravine, it seems, is hogging all the hardball joy.
Still, life must go on for those who missed out on Sasaki. The San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays, the two clubs that were reportedly finalists for the young hurler’s services, can’t afford to waste time licking their wounds. Spring training starts in less than a month. Rosters need refurbishing and rearming.
Here’s where those two teams go from here.
Toronto Blue Jays
Déjà vu all over again.
Last winter, the Jays won the Ohtani silver medal. Then they were competitive, though left lacking, in the Juan Soto sweepstakes. Corbin Burnes too spurned their advances, taking less money to be an Arizona Diamondback. And now, they settle for second place once more.
Toronto’s ability to be in the mix for so many talented players shows that the leadership group is doing something right. That’s particularly true for Sasaki, whose market was capped by the international bonus system. It’s better to be a finalist than a bum, in theory. But as the legendary Ricky Bobby once said: If you ain’t first, you’re last.
And Sasaki’s spurning of the Jays makes sense. Yes, the team is skilled at getting the most out of its big-league starters. Yes, it has a track record of keeping established arms healthy. Yes, there’s some talent on the roster. But the long-term outlook up north is not rosy, especially compared to what the Dodgers have.
Both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are a year away from free agency. Bichette looks certain to leave, while extension conversations with Guerrero are moving at a slug’s pace. The lineup behind that tandem and leadoff man George Springer is uninspiring. The farm system is below average. The payroll is already at $218 million, but Toronto went 74-88 last season, finishing dead last in the American League East. It’s a formidable future.
And now the Jays must get a little desperate, a little stupid, if they want to compete in 2025. Free-agent slugger Anthony Santander has been linked to Toronto all offseason; that’s a deal that needs to get done. Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman remain on the open market. Another impact reliever, even after the addition of Jeff Hoffman, is also a necessity.
The pathways to glory, for a franchise without a playoff victory since 2016, are dwindling rapidly. Sasaki would’ve solved a lot of problems in Toronto while changing the narrative about the Blue Jays as bridesmaids. Instead, this organization must trudge forward through another gray winter, searching for clearer skies ahead.
San Diego Padres
The Friars’ flirtation with Sasaki dates back quite a while. At the celebration of life ceremony for beloved former team owner Peter Seidler in November 2023, general manager AJ Preller directly referenced the talented young hurler as someone Seidler was excited about pursuing. There were other signs, too, other reasons to believe Sasaki could end up in San Diego. For one, the pitcher has a close relationship with Padres vet and fellow Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish.
“We fully expect to be right in the mix and actually, at the end of the day, have Sasaki be a Padre,” San Diego skipper Mike Shildt said on MLB Network Radio during the 2024 Winter Meetings. “We’ve got a lot of inroads to get to Sasaki. Now we’re gonna put the full-court press to make it happen, and we’re very optimistic.”
When the Padres were reported to be among the Sasaki finalists, the hope amplified to a fever pitch. Then, during his recruiting visit to Petco Park last week, video emerged of Sasaki playing catch on the warning track in brown and gold workout gear. The thought of Sasaki teaming up with Darvish to take on the rival Dodgers and their own super-powered Japanese tandem was tantalizing. And for a cash-strapped outfit such as the Padres, adding a controllable, affordable, potentially elite starting pitcher would’ve been a god-send.
Instead, the worst-case scenario unfolded. Sasaki is now a Dodger, ready and raring to wreak havoc upon San Diego hitters for the foreseeable future. He will, upon his first career start at Petco Park, be booed into oblivion.
For the Padres, the path forward now grows increasingly hazy. With the ownership group embroiled in a disastrously messy legal fight, the baseball operations department has been frozen solid in a financial holding pattern all winter. Preller, who has a reputation as one of the most active and aggressive executives in the game, has yet to sign a single player to a major-league contract this offseason. And the roster, albeit talented, could certainly use reinforcements — reinforcements that Preller and Co. don’t have the cash to acquire on the open market.
That means the Padres will either (1) get creative and trade away an established, expensive player in order to add depth or (2) stand pat and hope for the best. Both Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez are set to hit free agency after 2025, and both will make around $14 million this season. A trade involving either player is not out of the question. Retaining left fielder Jurickson Profar, a free agent who had an All-Star breakout campaign in 2024, is easier said than done. Upgrades at designated hitter and/or catcher wouldn’t hurt, either.
Sasaki wouldn’t have solved all those issues at once, but his arrival could have opened up a trade of Cease or fellow free-agent-to-be Michael King. Sasaki also would have infused new energy and life into a frustrated fan base. His addition would’ve been a transactional counterpunch to a Dodgers juggernaut that has bullied baseball the past few winters.
Instead, the Padres must ready themselves to face Sasaki multiple times per season while doing whatever possible to stymie the steamroller to the north.
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