Quarterback
Start: Jared Goff, Lions
Sportsbooks have conservatively projected the Lions to score nearly a billion points this week. Their 32.5 implied team total is six points higher than any other team. Even as a 10-point favorite, Goff should have no issues racking up fantasy points. In eight victories of 10+ points this season, Goff has averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game. That would be good for the QB5 on the year.
Sit: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Among the remaining playoff quarterbacks, only Matthew Stafford and C.J. Stroud—the passers for the teams with the lowest implied totals this week—have fewer 25-point fantasy games than Mahomes. The inevitable Super Bowl LIX champion has the league’s third-lowest aDOT (6.9) and deep throw rate (7.9 percent). As 8.5-point favorites over the Texans, the Chiefs aren’t likely to push the ball downfield, meaning we’re in for another dink-and-dunk game from Mahomes.
Running Back
Start: James Cook, Bills
Cook isn’t the best running back play of the slate, but he might be the most underrated. As long as the Bills keep things close—the spread is 1.5 points in favor of Baltimore—being a slight underdog shouldn’t be an issue for Cook. In one-possession situations, the Bills’ 45 percent run rate ranks ninth in the NFL. Buffalo logged a -2% pass rate over expected this year.
The 51.5 total in this game is high enough to have the Bills with a better implied team total than the Eagles, despite the Eagles being favored and Buffalo entering the weekend as a dog.
Start: David Montgomery, Lions
I have no clue how much David Montgomery will play on Saturday. But, he practiced in full throughout the week and didn’t even get a game-day designation. That would normally tell me he is good to go for Detroit’s upcoming game. The Lions and their massive team total are all going to be popular this week. The only way to get access to the team at any ownership discount might be via taking the plunge on their goal line back who finished the regular season with the fifth-most carries inside the five-yard line despite missing three games.
Sit: Joe Mixon, Texans
I got burned fading Mixon last week, but to be fair to Wild Card Kyle, the thesis was that Mixon would not be able to handle the negative game script. The Texans bodied the Chargers, teeing up Mixon for a great game. There’s no way they pull off the upset as 8.5-point dogs, right? Mixon has been a true RB1 in wins and a nightmare in losses this year.
The most shocking part of this split is his decrease in receiving output in losses. That’s probably noise, but Mixon has also topped a 60 percent route rate in just two games. The Texans use Dare Ogunbowale as their two-minute back, capping Mixon’s receiving production in losses. On a slate loaded with stars at running back, Mixon isn’t a priority option.
Sit: Kyren Williams, Rams
My advice at running back boils down to fading the two players on the teams with the lowest team totals. Their modest receiving workloads make the argument even easier. Williams’ eight percent target share ranks 37th among running backs. His mark of .52 yards per route run is two running backs shy of the worst in the NFL. Williams’ fantasy value is entirely based on touchdowns, and only the Texans project to score fewer points than LA in the Divisional Round.
Wide Receiver
Start: Nico Collins, Texans
It’s not shaping up to be a good week for Texans fans, but things set up awfully well for their superstar wideout. The Chiefs run Quarters coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (20 percent). Collins leads the NFL in yards per route run versus Quarters at 6.2. The gap between him and the No. 2 receiver, Drake London, is as wide as the gap between London and the No. 55 wideout. Collins also leads the NFL in YPRR versus Cover 1, Kansas City’s second-most common look.
Start: Hollywood Brown, Chiefs
Brown only played in two games during the regular season before being given two weeks to prepare for the postseason. The speedy wideout earned a 19 percent target share and a 26 percent air yards share in the pair of appearances. That was while running a route on just 40 percent of the team’s dropbacks. Brown posted mind-bending marks of .44 targets and 2.7 yards per route. Even as those numbers dip with more volume, a potentially drastic uptick in routes will more than make up for the efficiency regression.
Sit: Cooper Kupp, Rams
It appears to be over for Kupp. The former superstar receiver has earned an 11 percent target share while being targeted on 11 percent of his routes over his past four games. For reference, Puka Nacua has seen 40 percent of LA’s targets with a .37 TPRR during that stretch. The Rams have moved Nacua into the ‘Kupp role’, leaving mostly intermediate and deep targets for the namesake of the elite role itself. Facing a Philly defense that prides itself on preventing big plays, expect plenty of Nacua once again.
Sit: Amari Cooper, Bills
When asked who their No. 2 receiver would be for the playoffs, the Bills simply answered “No” in the Wild Card Round. Khalil Shakir ran 72 percent of the routes while no other Buffalo wideout topped a 53 percent route rate. Cooper finished fifth among the team’s receivers in route rate at 41 percent. He earned a measly three targets.
Tight End
Start: Isaiah Likely, Ravens
Likely’s fantasy viability depends on Zay Flowers’ health. He’s a fun dart throw if Flowers, who has not practiced this week, is active. Likely is a must-play if the young wideout can’t suit up. Likely ran 73 percent of the routes and earned a team-high 21 percent target share last week. The Ravens don’t have the receiver depth to backfill Flowers’ targets, but they do have the manpower at tight end to do so. Expect Likely to be heavily involved as long as Flowers is out or even limited versus Buffalo.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
We got more of the same from Kincaid in the Wild Card Round. He only ran 66 percent of the routes and earned a pedestrian 12 percent target share. The last time he ran more than 70 percent of the routes was in Week 9. A good week for Kincaid sees him playing a similar role to Isaiah Likely, who is cheaper in DFS and plays on a team projected to score more points.
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