Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last time on Fact or Fiction: There should be a trade market for Zion Williamson]
Fact or Fiction: This is Donovan Mitchell’s moment
If given the time you could probably name the nine-man list of 10-time NBA All-Stars who have never won a championship: James Harden, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Patrick Ewing, Charles Barkley, John Stockton, Karl Malone and Elgin Baylor. Even the handful of nine-time All-Stars who haven’t won a title are familiar: Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Dominique Wilkins, George Gervin and Lenny Wilkens.
Members of this fraternity are guaranteed of the Hall of Fame, but it is a club to which no one seeks membership, for it means they failed to reach the pinnacle of their profession. It is what separates Malone from Dirk Nowitzki, Paul from Isiah Thomas, Anthony from Paul Pierce. Bragging rights are forever.
We can debate who in the NBA right now will become a 10-time All-Star, though this seems like a pretty good standard: Of the 42 retired players who earned six All-Star bids by age 28, 25 of them finished their careers with double-digit appearances. The vast majority of the others had careers cut short by injuries.
The newest entrants into the list of 28-year-old, six-time All-Stars will be Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell, a pair of surefire selections whose teams are vying for Eastern Conference supremacy. Tatum won his ring last season. He is certified. And Mitchell has his best chance of winning a title this season.
How good of a shot do Mitchell’s Cavaliers have to win it all? Of the eight previous teams to start a season 34-5, as Cleveland has, six won the title. The two other teams had previously banked a title.
|
TEAM |
START |
FINISH |
NET RATING |
|
1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers |
36-3 |
68-13, NBA champions |
+7.7 |
|
1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers |
36-3 |
69-13, NBA champions |
+10.5 |
|
1982-83 Philadelphia 76ers |
34-5 |
65-17, NBA champions |
+7.4 |
|
1991-92 Chicago Bulls |
34-5 |
67-15, NBA champions |
+11.0 |
|
1995-96 Chicago Bulls |
36-3 |
72-10, NBA champions |
+13.4 |
|
1996-97 Chicago Bulls |
34-5 |
69-13, NBA champions |
+12.0 |
|
2005-06 Detroit Pistons |
34-5 |
64-18, lost conference finals |
+10.7 |
|
2015-16 Golden State Warriors |
36-3 |
73-9, lost NBA Finals |
Lost NBA Finals |
|
2024-25 Cleveland Cavaliers |
34-5 |
TBD |
+10.8 |
Cleveland’s net rating is among the best ever and second this season only to the Oklahoma City Thunder, another team on a historic pace. No team that has started so hot as the Cavaliers — with a net rating as high as theirs — has failed to reach the NBA Finals. It cannot be understated how good they have been.
Do we think the Cavaliers will improve on this in subsequent seasons? Or is this their moment?
While we view Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his Thunder as a superstar and a team on the rise, we do not think of Cleveland in the same vein. Mitchell is an established star. He is who he is — great, though not someone who we consider to be the traditional anchor of a historic team. Previous players to lead their teams to 34-5 starts included all-timers Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Julius Erving and Steph Curry.
Of course, we said the same of Tatum last season, and he delivered.
One other player led his team to a 34-5 start: Chauncey Billups. Mitchell already has as many All-Star selections as Billups logged in his entire career, but their situations are not so different. Granted, defense was Detroit’s calling card, and offense is Cleveland’s trademark, but they are both smaller-market teams with ensemble casts, led by a guard who has peaked as a fringe MVP candidate. Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen vs. Billups, Richard Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace is a war.
Point is: It can be done. Donovan Mitchell absolutely can win the championship.
And how many times are we going to say that in his career?
Mitchell is not a serious MVP candidate, at least not in the eyes of sportsbooks and voters. He is sacrificing for the greater good of the team, and his production — his lowest-scoring output since his rookie season — reflects that. Gone are the days when the best player on the best team is automatically an MVP candidate of consequence. Tatum, for example, finished sixth in the MVP voting last season.
Of the 21 teams in history that have won 65 games in a season, 15 won the title, and yet only the Chicago Bulls of the 1990s and the Golden State Warriors of the 2010s won 65 games on multiple occasions. That these Cavaliers are not. Tatum’s Celtics — Cleveland’s biggest threat in the East — are learning this now.
Windows close quickly in the NBA, especially for players outside the pantheon — players like Mitchell. Mobley’s next contract pushes Cleveland closer to the luxury tax next season, and who knows how chemistry carries from one season to the next. We were not even sure Mitchell wanted to stay in Cleveland as recently as eight months ago. Things change. And fast. Mitchell’s 2021-22 Utah Jazz won at a 56-win pace, lost in the first round of the playoffs and were dissolved by the end of the next season.
You have to seize these opportunities when they come. And this is Mitchell’s moment. I think we can all agree he is more Nique than MJ, hitting a second-round playoff ceiling through his first seven seasons.
And how often do you know this is your best chance as it is happening?
When Iverson was a 25-year-old MVP for the 2000-01 Philadelphia 76ers, did he think, This will be the only time I sniff an NBA Finals? Did Barkley as a 29-year-old MVP in his first season on the Phoenix Suns think they would never return to the title series? How could Harden have known as a 28-year-old MVP that his 2017-18 Houston Rockets would represent his last best shot a ring? In the moment you think you are invincible. In the moment you never see the end coming. But it comes for us all, faster in the NBA.
But with Mitchell we can see it as clear as day. In all likelihood, these Cavaliers will never be so good as they are now, and Mitchell may never be as good — or as sacrificial — as he is now. The intersection is Mitchell’s moment. His moment to seize his championship — his moment to secure bragging rights over every one of the ringless Hall of Famers who will one day attend Mitchell’s induction into Springfield.
Determination: Fact. This is Donovan Mitchell’s moment.
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