Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
We’re coming off an NFL Wild Card Weekend that wasn’t nearly as competitive as some predicted.
Will that change this week with some more interesting games? I think that answer is yes.
Let’s dive into my best bets — featuring several player props — for the divisional-round matchups.
(All times ET)
SATURDAY, JAN. 18
Texans @ Chiefs (4:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Chiefs host Houston in the divisional round after the Texans got a surprising 32-12 win as 3-point underdogs over the Chargers during Wild Card Weekend.
This game is a rematch of a Week 16 contest that Kansas City won 27-19 at home. The Chiefs’ starters have not played a meaningful snap of football since clinching the No. 1 seed with a win over the Steelers on Christmas Day.
This rest is much-needed for their veteran players, including tight end Travis Kelce, who had an unexpectedly large workload again this season after some injuries and youth forced the Chiefs to target Kelce more often.
Kelce had 133 targets and 97 catches during the regular season, which was more than last season and more than 2021.
There’s no player who will benefit more from that long break than Kelce, and I’m going to wager on it.
When Kelce is on the field for a playoff game after a week or two of rest, he instantly becomes the top priority in the passing game. He is Patrick Mahomes’ safe answer for every question. He’s always open, and they have a connection and chemistry unlike any other duo in the NFL.
Since the start of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl run, dating back to the 2019 season, Kelce has played in eight games when coming off extra rest. He’s been targeted at least six times with at least six receptions in all eight of those games. In the six games that weren’t a Super Bowl game, he’s had at least 10 targets in all of those, with a minimum of seven catches.
I see the pattern holding up for this game on Saturday afternoon.
PICK: Kelce Over 5.5 receptions
Concerned for the Chiefs with top starters not playing since Week 17?
Keeping our attention on the Texans-Chiefs matchup, I have another wager you should consider, and that’s Joe Mixon’s rushing attempts.
The Kansas City defense has been outstanding against the run this season. It has held nearly every starting running back under their projected rushing total, and with that long rest, the defense will be firing off the ball.
Don’t believe me? Look at the Rams and Eagles’ defensive lines last weekend, after sitting out Week 18.
Teams do not try to rush the ball as often against the Chiefs as they do against other teams. K.C. only faces 24.6 rush attempts per game, which is good for seventh-fewest in the NFL.
If the Chiefs offense is able to score — which I think it will be — that will also force the Texans out of the run game.
So I have Texans running back Joe Mixon under 16.5 rushing attempts.
PICK: Joe Mixon Under 16.5 rushing attempts
Commanders @ Lions (8 p.m., FOX/FOX Sports App)
The Lions are going to score points against the Commanders on Sunday.
With a week of rest under Detroit’s belt, I’m sure Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has schemed up some nasty things to befuddle the Washington defense, which is just below average.
I don’t think the Commanders have the means to control Detroit’s multiple offensive attacks.
You could take the Lions team total Over, but turnovers — which you can’t predict — or red-zone stalls could change the Lions’ scoring output.
So I’m going to wager on the Commanders trying to keep up.
The only way I see the Commanders keeping this game close is if this becomes a Jayden Daniels game. And by that, I mean through the air with his arm, and on the ground with his legs.
The Lions have seen an average of 35.9 pass attempts against them this season because teams tend to play catch up when they get behind. If the game goes as I see it, Washington will find itself in a situation where Daniels has to throw the ball.
I’m also targeting Daniels’ Over rushing attempts, and the same theory applies.
It’s difficult to account for a quarterback in the run game because of the numbers advantage for the blocking unit when the QB runs. These are efficient runs, especially on fourth down, where the Commanders excel. During this late-season playoff push — including their playoff win — they have used Daniels more in the run game and in turn, he has prioritized rushing the football more.
Daniels has had at least nine rushing attempts in five of six games, with three of those games over 10 rush attempts.
PICK: Jayden Daniels Over 34.5 pass attempts
PICK: Jayden Daniels Over 9.5 rushing attempts
Where Jayden Daniels’ year ranks among all-time rookie seasons
SUNDAY, JAN. 19
Rams @ Eagles (2 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
These two squads are entering this game after having wild-card contests that unfolded very differently.
The Eagles beat the Packers 22-10, with an uneven offensive performance after resting their starters in Week 18. They had a quick scoring drive after the Packers fumbled the opening kickoff and then another touchdown after tight end Dallas Goedert went hulk smash on the Packers defense.
Excluding the final drive, in which Saquon Barkley took a knee to finish the game, the Eagles offense had five punts and three field-goal attempts. Not ideal, but maybe we can chalk it up to some rustiness after having the week off.
We’ve also seen the Eagles offense not play up to task on any given week but then return to better play the next week.
The Rams offense, on the other hand, performed well against the Vikings on Monday night, but the story was the L.A. defense. That unit sacked Sam Darnold six times in the first half and did not allow the Vikings offense to get going.
It was an impressive performance for a young Rams D against a Vikings offense that had been rolling most of the season.
If you look at how both teams played last weekend, I understand why you’d want to gobble up the points with the Rams. But I’m going the opposite direction.
Whatever the Rams do well, the Eagles have a counter for. Philly has the best offensive line in the NFL and that group played well against the Packers last weekend. Los Angeles’ defense needs its line to play big to slow down opponents and this matchup is not favorable for it.
The Rams defense is only ranked 21st against the run, so if they can’t rush the passer and don’t stop the run well, I think the Eagles will have their way.
The Rams offense looked especially refreshed after taking Week 18 off. It scored quickly against the Vikings, but without a defensive score, it only reached 20 points. In the previous three games, when the starting offense played, the Rams scored only 12, 19 and 13. Now L.A. faces an Eagles defense on the road in the cold, frigid air of a mid-January afternoon.
This is just not a matchup that I think favors the Rams.
PICK: Eagles (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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