It isn’t always fun to play fantasy football like an actuary, being sensitive to aging curves and ready to walk away from a player before your opponents do.
But it’s probably right.
The 2024 season was not kind to the 30-something receivers. For the setup of this article, I looked at every 29-and-up receiver who charted a year ago (that age pocket was chosen so I had the full 30-somethings for the current season) and I recorded their results. I knew the older guys didn’t have a good year, but the truth was even worse than I expected.
There were 12 players in this group who had top 50 fantasy seasons at their position (Weeks 1-17, half-point PPR) in 2023. Of those dozen, 11 of them charted worse in 2024, and the only plus movement was inconsequential (Cooper Kupp rose from WR39 to WR36).
Injuries, of course, were a big part of this. And some of these players still had useful fantasy seasons. I don’t think anyone’s ever regretted drafting Mike Evans. Adam Thielen was useful in the latter stage of the year when he healed up and his young quarterback got a lot better.
But for the most part, a blanket fade of the veteran wideouts was the play in 2024. What a drag it is getting old.
Let’s do a quick lap through this list and try to figure out what the heck happened.
Tyreek Hill (WR2 in 2023, WR20 in 2024)
Hill was the number one shocker from this group, as he didn’t miss a game in 2024 — and he was electrifying in the previous season (119-1,799-13). Hill did play through some aches and pains, of course, but it was the Tua Tagovailoa season that mostly ruined the Miami passing game. Tagovailoa missed six full games and after his return, the offense was reluctant to take deep drops and develop long passes.
It blows my mind that after Week 1, Hill didn’t have a reception over 30 yards. His YPC collapsed down to 11.8, his lowest mark since his ordinary 2016 rookie season.
Looking Forward: Hill’s always had a different view of the world — sometimes he talks about not being far from retirement, sometimes he hints that maybe he’d like a trade. We need a happy and engaged Hill for the best fantasy results. Maybe it’s too much narrative street, but I need some positive Hill newsflow before I get tempted at the 2025 ADP, fully knowing his draft cost will be cheaper than it’s been in a very long time.
Mike Evans (WR4 in 2023, WR11 in 2024)
Evans was the one player of this group who aged gracefully, posting a season that was remarkably similar to everything he’s done since 2019. His yards per target have been virtually unchanged for five years, and missing three games wasn’t the end of the world.
Looking Forward: Boring value vets are probably better targets in other fantasy sports, but if there’s one 30-something wideout I’m likely to steer towards next draft season, it’s Evans. Baker Mayfield has rebuilt his career, and Evans will be the alpha on this team, no matter what the WR room looks like next year (Chris Godwin is a free agent).
Keenan Allen (WR8 in 2023, WR33 in 2024)
Allen changed teams and went to a city where he wasn’t the automatic target hog every week. Caleb Williams had a very uneven rookie year, though much of that was caused by the faulty infrastructure around him. Seven touchdowns applied some deodorant, but Allen’s yards per target collapsed to a new low.
Looking Forward: Allen was never an elite separator at peak, so it’s unlikely I’ll proactively target him into his age-32 season, no matter where the free agent signs.
Stefon Diggs (WR11 in 2023, WR63 in 2024)
Diggs was useful but seldom great over eight games, eventually knocked out by a torn ACL. Meanwhile, Nico Collins (despite his own injuries) developed into a full-fledged superstar. I guess the Bills officially won the Diggs breakup — Josh Allen had an MVP season (or darn close to it) without Diggs.
Looking Forward: Diggs heads to free agency but unless he landed in a perfect setup, it’s hard to see much upside left. You can only draft him as a depth piece, if at all.
Davante Adams (WR13 in 2023, WR16 in 2024)
Adams wasn’t happy for a brief stretch in Las Vegas (three games), eventually landing in New York, reunited with Aaron Rodgers. Adams was actually slightly more efficient with the Raiders, but Rodgers peppered Adams with a heavy target share and kept the wideout’s fantasy value afloat.
Looking Forward: Not that I’m excited for Rodgers to stay in the NFL, but if he’s linked to Adams, I’ll try to keep an open mind to the veteran receiver. Most other setups, I’ll just move along.
Amari Cooper (WR14 in 2023, WR59 in 2024)
A midseason trade didn’t hold Cooper back in 2018, so I thought the shift to Buffalo in midseason might perk him up. It’s mostly been a flop, with just 37.1 yards per game and a ton of useless fantasy weeks.
Looking Forward: Cooper is another wideout who was never an elite separator even during his best days, so you worry that his talent could be eroding quickly as we look ahead to his age-31 season. He’s also another player from this list walking into free agency.
Adam Thielen (WR19 in 2023, WR54 in 2024)
Thielen is curiously a data point in favor of experienced vets, as he was terrific in the six games after Thanksgiving (37-449-4). Bryce Young’s improvement is one of the feel-good stories of the year.
Looking Forward: Thielen will probably be a good coach someday, and he might have some NFL usefulness left as well. But I don’t want to use a draft pick on a 35-year-old receiver, no matter the internal chops. Maybe he’ll be a short-term waiver find again.
Calvin Ridley (WR24 in 2023, WR29 in 2024)
If you were able to roster Ridley as a boom-and-bust WR3, he probably met expectations. His global ADP was slightly lower than his finish; in short, you made a modest profit here despite the small ranking tumble.
Looking Forward: I’d be open to drafting Ridley as an unsexy depth piece if the market allows me, but I am not comfortable rostering him where he needs to be an opening-day starter.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR26 in 2023, WR45 in 2024)
A better touchdown rate helped after he joined the Chiefs, but his efficiency stats were relatively similar. The only profit season he’s given fantasy managers in the past four years came in 2023.
Looking Forward: Peak Hopkins was able to consistently win on contested catches, a profile that likely doesn’t age well. If his game didn’t pop in Kansas City, where he’s now an afterthought, where is it going to pop? I’m out on Hopkins.
Tyler Lockett (WR34 in 2203, WR66 in 2024)
Brandin Cooks (WR421 in 2023, WR95 in 2024)
I paired these guys together because it’s probably a simple case of aging out of fantasy relevance. Lockett was a reliable fantasy value for 5-6 seasons, and while Cooks was never a star, he was quietly useful while traveling the country (five NFL teams).
Looking forward: Remember the good times but stay unemotional at the table.
Cooper Kupp (WR39 in 2023, WR36 in 2024)
For the third straight year, Kupp missed a big chunk of games — that makes it 18 DNPs over three seasons. His success rate tumbled the last two years and his yards per target reached a new low in 2024.
Looking Forward: Kupp’s peak was a magical thing — he was probably the league’s best player in 2021. But he’s an aging player tied to an aging quarterback, and obviously, the LAR passing game is routed through Puka Nacua now. I suspect the market will throw out a tantalizing ADP on Kupp next summer, but I’m still prepared to look the other way.
A disclaimer to all this as we close up shop — we’re spitballing here. The 2025 fantasy season is a long way off. We’ll do plenty of stat review and game review in the offseason. NFL teams will do what they do — add and drop players, make trades, draft college kids, overhaul coaching staffs. This is just one step in a long 2025 fantasy journey. Let’s enjoy and continue that journey, confident the destination will take care of itself.
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