Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
NFL Wild Card weekend is here, and I believe we’re in for some pretty exciting football.
There are a few games that I’m eyeing. In two of those games, I’m wagering on the prop market, and then on the last, I’m looking at a first-half spread.
Check out my picks and predictions for the first weekend of the NFL playoffs.
(All times ET)
SATURDAY, JAN. 11
Steelers @ Ravens (8 p.m., Prime Video)
The Steelers are playing the worst football of any playoff team. They’ve lost four straight, including three blowouts to three playoff teams and a two-point loss to the Bengals last weekend. They have not scored more than 17 points in any of those four losses.
Quarterback Russell Wilson has regressed, and George Pickens is a no-show. The rushing game has gone away, and the offense is just boring. Pittsburgh’s defense is still good, but eventually it breaks against these teams who can continually send firepower while the Steelers offense falters.
The Ravens should handle business in this game. They’re playing outstanding football and have the feel of a Super Bowl favorite. However, their lack of postseason success relative to their regular-season success gives me pause to wager on them to cover this game.
I can make a case — a small case — where this black-and-blue decision game is three points like it normally is. So nothing on the side, but I do have two props for you.
Russell Wilson Over/Under 225.5 passing yards
In the last five games, Wilson hasn’t thrown more than 217 yards and that includes against this Ravens team in a blowout. And what’s wild about his yardage in that game is that the bulk of his yards came in the first half. On the final three drives, when the Steelers were attempting to make a comeback, Wilson threw a pick-six and the offense gained only 29 yards.
With Pickens seemingly disappearing from the offense, the Steelers’ weapons are limited against a good Ravens pass defense. Pittsburgh will also attempt to run the football early in the game to avoid the offense going through Wilson.
Also, getting some first downs via the ground in theory would limit the number of pass attempts for Wilson.
PICK: Russell Wilson Under 225.5 passing yards
Jaylen Warren Over/Under 20.5 receiving yards
The Steelers started to use Warren as more of a primary back in the last month and then last weekend, they just stopped. He went from back-to-back games with six receiving targets to just one against the Bengals.
They will have to use Warren in the passing game against the Ravens. Screen game and third-down completions will get Warren Over 20.5 yards, which he’s hit in six of their last nine games.
PICK: Jaylen Warren Over 20.5 receiving yards
NFL Wild Card Super Six: Which QB will have the most passing yards?
SUNDAY, JAN. 12
Broncos @ Bills (1 p.m., CBS, Paramount+)
This is an empty-the-playbook game for the Denver Broncos. By any means necessary, they have to win this game, even though they’re nearly 10-point underdogs.
When I think about what that means for the Broncos offense, I think about quarterback Bo Nix using his legs via designed runs and scrambles against pressure. Nix has 92 carries this season and 14 over the last two weeks. Having a quarterback who can move like him gives the offense a huge advantage.
Quarterback runs tend to work because the defense has difficulty accounting for the quarterback in its scheme. They work on third down and in the red zone best.
The Broncos must use these to help him score on Sunday.
Finally, if the game is out of hand, or gets out of hand, I could see Nix wanting to use his legs to scramble when no one is open. Just get yards as soon as possible.
PICK: Bo Nix Over 5.5 rush attempts
Can Jayden Daniels and the Commanders upset the Buccaneers?
Commanders @ Buccaneers (8 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
I like Tampa Bay to start fast on Sunday night against the Commanders.
The Buccaneers played poorly against New Orleans to clinch their playoff spot. They were tight, and their defense was bad in the first half. That amounted to a playoff game for them. They needed to win to get in.
Now that that’s out of the way, I expect this veteran team to settle down on Sunday night.
Tampa Bay ranked first in the NFL regular season in points on opening drives. It has 11 scoring drives, including eight touchdowns.
Washington had a marvelous season, but this a tough spot for any team with a rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks making their first road start do not win many of these games and often do not play up to their standard. There are butterflies, nerves and excitement.
I don’t expect Washington to handle these emotions well, and it will impact the Commanders’ play early. If they do settle down, this could be a game. But I’m wagering against that happening early on.
PICK: Tampa Bay -2.5 first half
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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