NFL Playoffs Briefing: Case for new seeding system; NFC wild-card games analysis

Chris Myers

Play-by-Play Announcer, Reporter and Studio Host

Editor’s Note: Throughout the NFL playoffs, Chris Myers and his research team analyze upcoming matchups, while providing news, notes, and nuggets for inside access to the information an NFL broadcaster uses to prepare for calling a game.

SHOULD PLAYOFFS HAVE A DIFFERENT SEEDING SYSTEM?

The NFL has long given seeding priority to “division champions” even if they win their four-team pod with a losing record. And every year, there are complaints about the unfairness of a team with a great record behind an even greater record in another four-team pod starting the playoffs on the road. This year’s prime example of the latter is the 14-3 Vikings, although in 2024 all eight division champions did at least achieve respectable 10-7 records at minimum.

Here is one possible alternate seeding system. Teams are lined up by their W-L records. Division champions (see Houston below) are always at the top of any win-loss ties, followed by wild cards. Ties between division champions would still be broken by the divisional tiebreakers (see: Rams-Buccaneers) and ties between wild cards would be broken by wild card tiebreakers (see: Steelers-Broncos).

For the 2024 season, the revamped order would look like this below — not much change in the AFC, just a flip between the Chargers and Texans, meaning Los Angeles would instead have hosted the wild-card meeting. (Changes in bold).

1. KANSAS CITY (15-2): West 1                    
2. BUFFALO (13-4): East 1                      
3. BALTIMORE (12-5): North 1                                  
4. LA CHARGERS (11-6): WC 1 (previous seed: 5)
5. HOUSTON (10-7): South 1 (previous seed: 4)
6. PITTSBURGH (10-7): WC 2                                    
7. DENVER (10-7): WC 3

Meanwhile, in the NFC, the seedings would receive a shake-up:

1. DETROIT (15-2): North 1                                      
2. PHILADELPHIA (14-3): East 1                                
3. MINNESOTA (14-3): WC 1 (previous seed: 5)                                    
4. WASHINGTON (12-5): WC 2 (previous seed: 6)                                 
5. GREEN BAY (11-6): WC 3 (previous seed: 7)                                     
6. TAMPA BAY (10-7): South 1 (previous seed: 3)                                 
7. LA RAMS (10-7): West 1 (previous seed: 4)                                       

So, the first round would look like:

7. LA Rams at 2. Philadelphia 
6. Tampa Bay at 3. Minnesota 
5. Green Bay at 4. Washington 

Quite the difference.

Now the NFL might not see any big problem when a 12-5 Dallas team had to open up the 2022 playoffs at 8-9 Tampa Bay. It made for a better game than if 8-9 Tampa Bay as the No. 7 seed had gone to No. 2 San Francisco (13-4).   

But we could argue that using this system would produce more games that matter in Week 18, which was not overwhelmed with suspense this year. 

We might have had a new all-time rushing champion with this system in place, as the 13-3 Eagles would not have been locked into the No. 2 seed as they were under the current system, and might have played Saquon Barkley. 

The Rams would have played harder because instead of being locked into a home game as the champions of the NFC West, they would have been on the road but with a chance for a home game with a Washington loss.

What are your thoughts — should the wild cards have a chance to crack the top four and get a home game as three of them would have if this system were in use in the 2024 season?

CHRIS MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “I’m not sure how much of a groundswell there really is for such a change. I would be interested in canvassing players and coaches about it, but the current system which rewards teams for winning a championship has stood the test of time.”

BREAKING DOWN AFC MATCHUPS

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC playoffs feature three rematches.

In all three, the team at home this week was the winning team in the regular-season matchup. However, the Eagles’ opening week victory did not take place in Philadelphia. Instead, they prevailed 34-29 in Sao Paolo, Brazil as Saquon Barkley had 132 scrimmage yards and three TDs in his Eagles debut.

Nick Siriani is the only coach in Eagles history to win 14 regular-season games in a season — and after 2024, he has done it twice.

Nine teams have won 25 or more postseason games in NFL history, four are in these playoffs and this is a match between two of them. The Eagles are tied for seventh (with the Giants and Raiders) with 25 postseason wins all-time.  The Packers have won 37 postseason games, tied with the Patriots for second, and two behind the 49ers, who will not be adding to their total of 39 this postseason.

Although the two teams have played a combined total of 114 postseason games, this is only the fourth time the teams have met in postseason play and the first since a wild-card game in the 2010 postseason. Green Bay won that one to start a run to their most recent Super Bowl championship. This is Green Bay’s 11th postseason since that win in Arlington over Pittsburgh, and they have not been back to the Super Bowl since.

The Eagles are 37-10 (.787) in the last three regular seasons when Jalen Hurts starts at quarterback. That is the most wins in that span for any NFC quarterback (Patrick Mahomes has 39, with Josh Allen also 37).

The Packers went 11-6, despite only going 1-5 in play against NFC North foes. After losing to the Eagles, they are 10-0 against non-division foes (although only close wins against the Rams and Texans were against teams in the playoff field). Has being tested in four games against the Lions and Vikings made them better equipped to defeat the Eagles?

It seems hard to believe that Matt LaFleur has already spent six seasons as the Packers coach. His worst year was 8-9 in 2022, after which Aaron Rodgers exited.  Otherwise, five winning playoff seasons.

With Jordan Love of Bakersfield taking on Jalen Hurts from the Houston area as the quarterbacks, this is a matchup between QBs who played high school football in California and Texas, respectively.  We also have Austin’s Baker Mayfield against Jayden Daniels of San Bernardino and Orange County’s Sam Darnold going against Highland Park/Dallas product Matthew Stafford. 

All seven NFC quarterbacks are from either California (Jared Goff, Marin County) or Texas. All told, 10 of the 14 quarterbacks are from those two states (6 from California including C.J. Stroud and Josh Allen, 4 from Texas, including Patrick Mahomes). The other four are from Florida (Lamar Jackson), Virginia (Russell Wilson), Oregon (Justin Herbert) and Alabama (Bo Nix).

MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “One of the benefits when calling a playoff game or working as the sideline reporter is having exclusive sit-down time with the head coach and quarterback, along with a few selected others. Matt LaFleur of Green Bay is among the most pleasant, candid and informative, and we really appreciate the way his information can enhance our broadcast for the viewers. Lafleur will often tell you why some of his players excel in situations trusting you won’t mention before the actual game. He is a very meticulous play-caller and against the Eagles’ improved defense, he’ll need a near-perfect game from Jordan Love.

“Eagles coach Nick Sirianni might catch some heat for his animated sideline reactions and interactions, but when you talk with him before broadcasting a game, he is as friendly and under control as anyone. It’s almost as if he takes on a player’s persona when he’s coaching the game from the sideline. This Eagles team has responded to him much like the way they did that went to the Super Bowl.”

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game is also a Week 1 rematch. The Bucs beat the Commanders, 37-20, in Tampa on September 8 in the debut of Jayden Daniels.

Since then, each team has had any number of epic games, including thrilling victories in Week 18.

The Commanders played 12 one-score games, winning eight of them. Daniels already has four game-winning Drives (and Marcus Mariota added another last week). Washington knows how to play in tough games.

The Buccaneers have also been in exciting late-game situations. Baker Mayfield leads the NFL with 28 successful third-down conversions in the fourth quarter or OT (22 passing, 6 rushing). Daniels has 23 (19 passing, 4 rushing) which is third behind the 25 of Patrick Mahomes.

With 41, Mayfield joined Tom Brady as the only Buccaneers quarterbacks to pass for 40 TDs in a season. His 106.8 passer rating set a Tampa Bay season mark. And as an added element, his 378 rush yards are the second-most by a Bucs QB in a season and the most since Steve Young ran for 425 in a 2-14 1986 season. Before 2024, Mayfield had not run for 200 yards in any season.

MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “When we met with Commanders coach Dan Quinn, he was honest about his defense being a work in progress when he assessed his team in the first month of the season.  He did know he had a special talent in Jayden Daniels for his offense.  His vision of complimentary football has played out and has his team in the playoffs.

“Baker Mayfield continues his career resurgence while carrying the Bucs with him.  Tampa Bay was able to replace Dave Canales at OC with Liam Coen and they have not missed a beat in the passing game, while having the franchise’s best rushing season in years. It seems to be a combination of Coen’s scheme, the solidifying of the offensive line with the addition of rookie center Graham Barton and the emergence of fourth-round rookie Bucky Irving. He has added an element Tampa Bay hasn’t seen in some time with an exuberance and enthusiasm to go with speed and quick moves.

“How will Quinn and the Commanders defend Bucky the Bucs, plus 1,000-yard receiving stalwart Mike Evans and Mayfield’s impromptu magic?  The answer will determine the winner.”

Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams were not afraid to rest key players, including QB Matthew Stafford, in Week 18, even when it meant a date with the 14-3 Vikings and not the Commanders. The Rams and Vikings have already met in Los Angeles on October 24, with Los Angeles prevailing, 30-20.  Down 28-20, the Vikings had taken over for a final push, only for QB Sam Darnold to be sacked in the end zone for a safety as officials missed what appeared to be a fairly obvious face mask grab by Rams LB Byron Young. 

Since Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell was hired off the Rams staff, his current offense should be somewhat familiar to McVay and the Rams.

Justin Jefferson has been a special weapon in his five seasons with the Vikings, topping 1,000 yards receiving in all five. His 96.5 yards receiving per game in his career is the NFL record (min. 50 games). His sweet spot is between 120 and 140 receiving yards as the Vikings are 10-0 when he finishes a game in that range.

As for his quarterback, Sam Darnold will be making his playoff debut in his seventh season. This will be the ninth postseason start for Stafford, his sixth since joining the Rams at age 33 in 2021.

MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “This should be a fascinating matchup between teacher and pupil as Sean McVay and the Rams take on Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings. McVay’s been around so long, it’s hard to believe he is still just 38 years old. O’Connell is actually a year older. 

“It is obvious when you talk to McVay why he is so successful with his combination of intelligence and enthusiasm.  I remember meeting O’Connell on the field before a game when he was with the Rams in 2020 and you could see immediately why McVay trusted him so much. It was clear he would impress in a head coaching interview and be successful when he got the job.”

Chris Myers is an Emmy Award-winning play-by-play announcer, reporter and studio host for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @The_ChrisMyers.

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