Jason McIntyre
Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
We’re down to the final four teams of the first College Football Playoff that featured 12 teams.
While most of the games so far haven’t been that thrilling, I’ve got faith that we’re going to get our money’s worth out of these last two rounds.
And speaking of money, I’ve got a few wagers that I think will put some cash in our pockets. Check out my best bets for the semifinal round of the Playoff.
(All times ET)
THURSDAY, JAN. 9
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
In the first round of the playoffs, the edge went to the home teams, who went 4-0 against the spread (ATS). In the second round, the teams that had a bye all lost, and Arizona State is the only one that covered the spread.
So where’s the big edge this week?
Whoever gets to 20 first here wins the game. It might only take 17. We’re talking about two quarterbacks who are limited through the air. Riley Leonard threw for 90 yards against Georgia, and Drew Allar doesn’t have a 250-yard passing game all season.
The offensive strategy will be simple for both — just don’t mess it up.
When it comes to Notre Dame, the Irish didn’t turn the ball over against Indiana or Georgia. In fact, they did next to nothing offensively against the Bulldogs, scoring a touchdown after Georgia fumbled inside its own 20 late in the first half and then running the second-half kickoff back seconds later to put the game away.
For Penn State, Allar had a fumble when the Nittany Lions were up 14-0, and that let Boise State stay in the game and hang around longer than it should have.
Besides cautious offenses, I expect both defenses to largely contain both running attacks, and as a result, I’m looking at the first-half Under and full-game Under, too. Because college football teams don’t have to officially file injury reports, it’s unclear if two standouts will play. That’s PSU edge rusher Abdul Carter, who will be a top-15 pick in the 2025 NFL draft, and Notre Dame’s leading rusher, Jeremiyah Love, who scored 16 touchdowns on the season.
I lean Notre Dame on the side, but I’d prefer ML, as this one has 17-16 written all over it.
PICK: Under 45 points scored by both teams combined
PICK: Notre Dame (-129) Moneyline
Can Notre Dame slow down the Penn State run game?
FRIDAY, JAN. 10
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
No team has looked better than Ohio State through two playoff games.
In the month since the Michigan loss, Chip Kelly has changed the offense to attack through the air, which then softens up the defensive front and leads to big plays in the ground game.
Still, this number is way, way too high at Buckeyes -6. If you back OSU here, you’re paying a tax on the Buckeyes because they are overwhelmingly going to get bet. If you had projected a Texas-OSU semifinal before the Playoff, the line may have been OSU -1 or -2 at the max.
Freshman superstar Jeremiah Smith has five TDs and 290 yards receiving in the two playoff games. He’ll likely go up against Texas All-American corner Jahdae Barron, who permitted 35 catches on 65 targets and zero touchdowns allowed this season.
Texas plays a high rate of zone, which is a risky proposition against Smith & Co. Will it change tendencies and straight up double team the best receiver in college football?
It seems very clear that QB Will Howard wants to target Smith early and back up the defense. It has worked the last two games. Then, the Buckeyes hand off to TreVeyon Henderson, who averaged eight yards per carry against Tennessee and 11 against Oregon. The offense since the Michigan debacle has been unstoppable.
I would normally hammer the Over here, but it seems too obvious. Also obvious: Texas should have a considerable home-field advantage playing at the house of the Cowboys. The arctic blast expected to hit America this week could impact things in Dallas, which historically has not handled snow and ice particularly well. It could make travel difficult — especially for folks flying in.
The reason I can’t bet against Ohio State is because the Buckeyes’ defensive changes have been terrific since the Oregon loss early in the season. They played cover-one man coverage, which is susceptible to big plays, and Oregon lit them up with four receivers notching catches of 30 yards or more. In the cover-two look, they keep everything in front of them, and Oregon only had one such play in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes had zero sacks in the first meeting with Oregon; they had eight in the quarterfinal matchup.
If you want to back Texas out of principle that it’s too big of an overreaction, go for it. I think there are two ways to play this. The safer one is to tease Ohio State down to pick and then tease Penn State up to +8. The alternative is to just back the Buckeyes at -6.
Why?
The best team Texas played this season was Georgia and the Longhorns lost to the Dawgs twice. They’ve been leaking oil for a few weeks, struggling against Texas A&M on the road, then letting Clemson hang around and needing double overtime to put away ASU.
We know OSU will score. Can Texas keep up?
PICK: Tease OSU -6 to pick, Penn State +2 to +8
PICK: Ohio State (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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