After the Dodgers signed Hyeseong Kim to a three-year deal, it seemed likely — but not guaranteed — that the Dodgers were going to make a move involving one of their infielders.
That move came Monday.
The Cincinnati Reds are finalizing a deal to acquire infielder Gavin Lux from the Los Angeles Dodgers, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 6, 2025
In exchange for Lux, the Dodgers will receive the 37th pick in the 2025 MLB Draft — a pick that is allowed to be traded because it was a Competitive Balance selection — and outfield prospect Mike Sirota.
Let’s take a look at the potential fantasy upside of Lux in Cincinnati, and what the Dodgers are acquiring in exchange for the infielder.
What kind of year did Lux have in 2024?
Let’s take a quick trip back before we explore Lux’s 2024 campaign. He was drafted with the 20th pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, and before long, he was widely considered one of — if not the — best prospects in baseball. He made his MLB debut in 2019, and he finally got a chance to be a regular in 2021 as a 23-year-old. He was so-so at best in that first full campaign with a .692 OPS over 101 games, but he took a major step forward in 2022 while hitting .276 with a .346 on-base percentage while leading the league in triples. Expectations were relatively high after that sophomore season, but the 2023 campaign never happened as he tore his ACL in spring training and missed the entire season.
Lux returned in 2024 and played in 130 games for the Dodgers, and in what turned out to be his final season with Los Angeles — at least for now — he slashed .251/.320/.383 with 10 homers and five stolen bases over 487 plate appearances. He was a non-factor in the playoffs despite his team winning the World Series with a .580 OPS, although he did hit a homer in the NLDS against the Padres and drove in a run in the Game 5 win over the Yankees that clinched the title.
Lux has shown real flashes as a pro, but the overall experience could pretty easily be described as disappointing.
What does Lux do well, and what has he struggled with?
Lux has shown a strong approach at the plate, and in 2024, he walked in nine percent of his plate appearances which ranked in the 62nd percentile of all qualified hitters. His chase rate was even better, as he swung at pitches outside of the zone just 23.1 percent of the time; ranking in the 85th percentile. Because he is willing to work counts he will strike out as seen in a strikeout rate of 22.6 percent, but when he swung he made contact with the pitch 76.7 percent of the time, which puts him in the 57th percentile. Not elite, but far from a weakness.
Lux isn’t elite in terms of hard contact, either, but you may be surprised to see that he ranks above-average in several categories. He was in the 57th percentile in hard-hit percentage with 41.1 percent of his contact qualifying, and he was above-average (60th percentile) in squaring the baseball up with a rate of 26 percent. Those numbers gave him an expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA) of .319, which is a slightly-above average number in the 51st percentile.
While not a burner, Lux also has above-average speed, and while he has not been a stolen-base threat at the highest level and likely never will be, he does move well enough to be more than a station-to-station player. That will at least not hurt in the run category.
What has Lux struggled with at the highest level?
As a prospect, Lux showed the ability to drive the baseball out of the park, and in his final full year in the minors he hit 26 homers in just 119 games with an outstanding .607 slugging percentage. To say that power hasn’t shown up in the majors is quite the understatement. He has hit all of 23 homers over his last three seasons while never slugging above .399 in that timeframe.
And the metrics suggest that Lux is deserving of those poor slugging marks. His expected slugging percentage of .383, barrel rate six percentage and average exit velocity of 88.3 mph all tell the story of how much the left-handed hitter has struggled to drive the baseball. Yes, it’s worth pointing out that Lux will be able to play in friendlier confines in Great American Ball Park, but those numbers tell you that it won’t really matter where he’s playing without a massive adjustment to his swing plane.
And on top of that, Lux flat-out can’t hit left-handed pitching. Not yet, anyway. Over his career, he’s hit southpaws to the tune of .202/.279/.274 as compared to .264/.337/.408 against righties. It seems likely the Reds won’t have him in the lineup against same-sided pitching — more on his potential playing time later — and that obviously hurts the counting stats.
What about the Dodgers’ return?
The 37th pick helps the Dodgers in a variety of ways. First, it gives Los Angeles a top 40 pick in the draft.Second, it adds a substantial amount of money to their allocated funds, which means they can target more upside players in the draft. Finally, it’s a pick that the Dodgers are able to trade again if they look to improve their roster or acquire a prospect they like more than someone they could potentially take this July.
As for Sirota, there’s reason for intrigue here, as well. He was the 74th pick of the 2024 draft, but coming into the “draft season” he was viewed as a potential first-round pick after putting up monster numbers at Northeastern. Those numbers slipped considerably in 2024, and concerns about him not piling up the numbers — compared to other prospects, of course — while playing in what is considered a lower level of competition obviously hurt his stock. Still, Sirota is a player who shows a quality approach with some potential power, and he’s a strong defensive outfielder. He’s someone to consider in deeper dynasty formats.
Is Lux someone you would want on your fantasy team for 2025?
This is a tough one.
The reason for no is simple. He’s a player that isn’t well above-average at anything but drawing walks, but his average hasn’t been high enough to make his on-base percentage so strong that you ignore the other issues. And again, he is going to be playing in a home park that has the highest-rated park factor for left-handed hitters in terms of homers at 142 (100 is average), but look at those numbers and tell me you believe Lux is a lock to hit for power. You can’t. You shouldn’t. That and the fact that he doesn’t steal bags would make this a pretty easy no.
And yet, I would be surprised if I didn’t end up with Lux on a few of my rosters. It’s being reported that the Reds plan on using him as a “super-utility” player; meaning he should see time at second, third, the outfield and potentially some reps at first base, too. That makes Lux should have eligibility at several positions by the summer — depending on your league, of course — and it’s always nice to have a “regular” that you can put into a few different spots.
And, I also can’t ignore the version of Lux I saw as a prospect. Sure it was five years ago and he’s been an above-average offensive player just once. But it’s far from unheard of to see a player of his pedigree become a solid option. And if Cincinnati is able to find that power stroke — again, hard to bet on, but not impossible — those friendly confines become, well, friendlier.
I wouldn’t draft Lux as a starter, but there’s enough fear of missing out — or FOMO, as the kids once said — that I’d want him on my bench.
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