After winning nine games in a row and capping a strong 12-2 December, the Knicks fell in back-to-back games in which they looked outmatched without their starting unit in and gassed down the stretch.
That alone shouldn’t alarm fans, but combined with all the high-minute games their key players are accumulating and the context of Tom Thibodeau’s previous teams succumbing to injury, there’s an early anxiety building over the workload placed on this starting lineup.
Thibodeau has forever valued the win in front of him above all, and given questionable depth throughout his career, has found the most success leaning on shorter rotations. This year’s roster has been especially thin, which has resulted in even more responsibility on their top-end talent.
Of the NBA’s top players in minutes played this season, New York’s Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby take spots one through three. Jalen Brunson is seventh and Karl-Anthony Towns is 12th, while no other team has more than four players in the top 50.
Their starting lineup featuring those five has played 610 minutes this season, nearly 200 more than any other lineup in the league. On top of minutes played, Bridges leads the NBA in miles traveled, and three of the Knicks’ starters join in the top-six of that measure.
There is some skew in these metrics, as the Knicks have actually had great injury luck to start the year, with their starters missing little time. There’s also a major long-term benefit in them playing together in such high volume, as they were able to gel and find prolonged success relatively quickly for a team that underwent massive turnover this offseason.
Still, an extreme amount of minutes played can increase the risk for injuries, and we’ve already seen some bumps and bruises develop among the starters. Not only are they in danger of missing time, but the time spent on the court can be far less effective due to fatigue.
Even Towns himself admitted to being “exhausted” down the stretch of the Knicks’ recent loss to the Thunder. Quantitatively there appears to be some truth to this as well, as the starters have a positive net rating in every quarter but the fourth, in which teams are outscoring them by five points per 100 possessions.
There may be some garbage time embedded in those numbers, but it’s hard to argue the Knicks have put their best food forward in the clutch. They’re a middling 5-5 in games within five points with under three minutes to play for a number of reasons, with fatigue likely being one of them.
Relevant is the Knicks being without their sixth man for three games now. Miles McBride offers them a very reliable 25+ minutes a night when healthy, and his return will alleviate some of these issues.
Precious Achiuwa returned from injury just a month ago, giving New York a boost to both frontcourt positions. With McBride’s injury, that means the Knicks only got 12 games out of their two best bench pieces.
It’s a similar story to Landry Shamet, who performed well in training camp and the preseason, but injured his shoulder before the regular season. He just returned to the rotation around the holidays, and has looked solid in limited minutes.
With these reserves back in tow and Mitchell Robinson eventually due to return, we could see the starters get some added rest. That said, these injuries make it painfully apparent this depth is on thin ice, and the wrong missing piece or two could leave the Knicks scrambling for options.
Finding a solution is much more difficult than pointing out the problem and its symptoms. New York has limited freedom of movement, and if their available options were good enough to bolster the bench, Thibodeau would have leaned on them already.
There are New York’s three rookies – Pacome Dadiet, Tyler Kolek, and Ariel Hukporti – who have appeared in a pinch to positive results, but aren’t yet seasoned enough to be trusted with regular rotation minutes, at least in the coaches’ eyes. Then there’s sharpshooter Matt Ryan, plus options out of the G League in TJ Warren, Donovan Williams, and Chuma Okeke.
There are arguments to be made for any of these guys to deserve a shot at proving themselves under NBA minutes and opponents, but whatever the Knicks have seen so far clearly isn’t enough. Thibodeau also isn’t one to live with experimentation and playing through mistakes despite the potential long-term gains, as it could impact winning in the immediate.
That leaves players available via trade or free agency. The latter is basically impossible for the Knicks, who are currently hard capped at the second apron, with few interesting names available — even once the buyout market gets into full gear.
A trade would also be very difficult for the Knicks to pull off, with them unable to aggregate salaries, use trade exceptions, or take back more money than they send out. Still, it’s within the realm of possibility for them to do something with Robinson’s salary, perhaps trading him for a couple of depth pieces if they make the math work.
This would likely mean taking back players worse than Robinson when fully healthy, as his value is diminished due to his repeated injuries. Robinson also fills some high-end needs for the Knicks when revved up, so moving an impact talent like him for some short-term relief may not be the best bet.
There simply aren’t a bounty of good options for the Knicks, who will likely ride things out for now as guys are getting healthy and the All-Star break nears. They don’t have much maneuverability for upgrades and have multiple years with this core to replenish the back half of the roster, so don’t expect anything rash between now and the trade deadline.
This will be an ongoing storyline to watch as the season progresses, as it’s been in each season of Thibodeau’s Knicks tenure. Will it become background noise, be resolved, or end up tanking this team before it reaches its full potential?
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