College Football Playoff: Notre Dame vs. Penn State – prediction, odds, expert picks, QB matchup, and trends

The Nittany Lions (13-2) cruised through the first half of their B10 schedule with their closest victory being a dramatic Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC where PSU still posted an 86%-win expectancy despite the close score. Each of their other 10 regular season wins carried near perfect 94%+ win expectancies, with PSU exhibiting a thorough mastery of their B10 regular season schedule. Penn State was unable to corral Oregon’s offense in the Big Ten Championship though, allowing 496 total yards while dropping a 45-37 decision to the then undefeated Ducks.

The Nittany Lions eviscerated SMU in the first round of the CFP Playoff, picking off QB Kevin Jennings three times while holding the Mustangs to 58 rushing yards on 36 carries (1.6 YPC) enroute to a commanding 38-10 victory. It was much of the same against Boise State last round, with PSU smothering Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty and company to the tune of 108 yards on 40 carries for a comfortable 31-14 win.

OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 2nd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play and 2nd in marginal efficiency. Their main offensive drawback is PSU’s relative lack of big play ability, ranking 92nd in yards per successful play and 59th in explosiveness.

The Nittany Lions Defense has been a wrecking crew once again, ranking 7th in SP+ with a secondary that allows just 5.2 yards per dropback (14th in FBS). Projected Top 10 2025 NFL Draft Edge Abdul Carter got dinged up last game but should play and leads a pass rush that ranks 9th overall with a 42.3% pressure rate and 25th in sacks per dropback (7.8%).

Notre Dame (12-1) didn’t let a disappointing Week 2 loss to 7-5 MAC program Northern Illinois derail their season, winning 10 straight games to punch their ticket to the CFP Playoff.

The main critique of the Irish stems from their soft 63rd ranked schedule that includes signature wins over Texas A&M, Louisville and USC. To their credit, all of Notre Dame’s regular season victories were by 10+ points with the exception of a 31-24 win over Louisville.

ND hosted the first College Football Playoff game even held on a college campus when they welcomed in-state rival Indiana in the first round. They quickly jumped out to a comfortable 27-3 lead before IU scored two late touchdowns with under 1:30 left in regulation to make it a somewhat deceptive 27-17 final in a game Notre Dame was in complete control of from the time Jeremiah Love housed a Q1 98-yard touchdown run.

Though ND lost two NFL-caliber tackles from last year’s offensive line, they haven’t lost a step in the run game ranking second in EPA/rush while averaging 6.7 yards per carry and a sensational 3.94 YAC that’s tops in FBS.

Their secondary is certifiably elite, ranking 1st nationally in passing success rate (29.7%), EPA/dropback and completion rate (48.7%). Their run defense has some vulnerability with star DT Riley Mills outranking a troubling 129th in stuff rate (14%) and 65th in rush success rate heading into the semi-final matchup.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to watch 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final: Notre Dame vs. Penn State

• Date: Thursday, January 9th

• 2025 · Time: 7:30 PM EST

• Site: Hard Rock Stadium

• City: Miami Gardens, FL

• TV/Streaming: ESPN

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Game odds for 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final Notre Dame vs. Penn State

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

Notre Dame opened at -1.5/-122 favorites and has ticked up to -2/-130 in some spots. It could potentially go up to -2.5, but unlikely to hit -3 in such a close matchup. The game total dropped at 46.5 which has held steady across the board, with the exception of Caesar’s showing an even 47 at the moment.

Expert Picks and Predictions for CFP Semifinal: Notre Dame vs. Penn State

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“I have major questions about Notre Dame’s ability to run the ball effectively with Jeremiah Love departing each of their last three games due to injury. Conversely the loss of DT Riley Mills compromises an already shaky ND run defense. I feel like Penn State has more explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball and will be able to control the line of scrimmage. I’m backing Penn State and taking the +2 points in what should be a competitive affair.”

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Quarterback matchup for 2025 College Football Playoff Semi-Final: Notre Dame vs. Penn State

• Notre Dame: QB Riley Leonard spent his first three seasons at Duke, breaking out in 2022 but regressing in 2023 due to a nagging ankle injury that hampered his productivity, completing just 57% of his throws with a 3-to-3 ratio. Now completely healthy, Leonard is completing 66.3% of his throws with an 18-to-6 ratio and an 83rd percentile offensive grade that ranks 20th among Power Four signal callers. His dual-threat ability allows Leonard to evade the rush with an 11.5% pressure-to-sack rate (6th in P4), while posting three consecutive seasons with a rushing grade of 80%+.

• Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar sustained a knee injury and was questionable in the leadup to their pivotal Ohio State game, but the grizzled vet managed to gut it out, showing tremendous leadership and grit despite the 20-13 loss. Allar ranks 16th nationally with an 85.4 PFF overall grade and is handling the rush expertly, rating 7th in FBS with a 69th% under-pressure grade. As a team, PSU ranks 2nd in passing success rate and is gaining first down yardage on 61.7% of their completions (6th in FBS). Allar isn’t putting the ball in the air much in PSU’s run-heavy offense, throwing a mere 24.7 passes per game which ranks 53rd out of 57 Power Four quarterbacks with 200+ attempts. He’s averaging 0.3 interceptions per game since 2023, which is tied for the best interception rate over the last two seasons with Missouri’s Brady Cook.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State: Trends & Recent Stats

• Notre Dame DB Xavier Watts has intercepted 12 passes since the 2023 season, the most among FBS Defensive Players.

• Notre Dame has allowed 159.8 Passing Yards per game since the 2023 season, 2nd-best in FBS. Notre Dame has allowed just 113.4 receiving yards per game to WRs since the 2023 season, 2nd-best in FBS.

• Riley Leonard has averaged just 10.6 yards per completion this season– T-5th-lowest among Power Conference Quarterbacks.

• Notre Dame’s RBs rushed for 4,415 yards on 714 carries (6.2 YPC) since the 2023 season, 2nd-best among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 2.7 YPC since the 2023 season, best among Big Ten defenses.

• Notre Dame is 20-4 (.800) against the spread when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season, 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .539). Penn State is 1-7 (.125) against the spread when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, worst among Power Conference teams; (Average: .430)

• Notre Dame has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 36 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season, tied for worst in FBS.

• Penn State TEs have 19 receptions for 20 or more yards this season second-most among FBS Teams.

• Drew Allar has rushed for 10 TDs in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, 2nd-most among Big Ten Quarterbacks

• Kaytron Allen has rushed for 12 TDs on 67 carries in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, 10th-worst Carry per TD rate among Big Ten Running Backs.

• Penn State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 4-of-748 attempts since the 2023 season, 2nd-best in FBS.

• Penn State are 2-6 (.250) against the spread when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season, 6th-worst in FBS. (Average: .379)

• Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 210 of 886 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season, best in the Big Ten.

• Notre Dame has gained 2,645 yards on 251 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) this season, 8th-worst among FBS skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception this season, 20th-best among FBS defenses.

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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (Open to Now)
·       Ohio State +700 to +125
·       Texas +1000 to +300
·       Penn State +2500 to +500
·       Notre Dame +3000 to +700

Highest Handle%
·       Ohio State 22.0%
·       Texas 10.3%

Biggest Liabilities
·       Ohio State
·       Notre Dame

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