In the first round of the College Football Playoff, the teams seeded 5-8 all won.
In the second round, they all won again.
The moral of this story: Who knows, other than something doesn’t totally add up when not a single one of the top four teams, all of which received the advantage of a first-round bye, advances into college football’s final four.
The semifinals are set: In the Orange Bowl, it will be No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame. Then, in the Cotton Bowl, it will be No. 5 Texas vs. No. 8 Ohio State.
Appropriately enough considering the way the second round played out, it’s the team with the worst seed, the Buckeyes, who are now the favorite — and fairly overwhelmingly at that — listed at 11-10 to win it all by the BetMGM Sportsbook.
These matchups ensure that a team with a long pedigree and a big name will carry the championship trophy when the first 12-team playoff concludes in Atlanta on Jan. 20.
Also, the Penn State-Notre Dame matchup guarantees either James Franklin or Marcus Freeman will have a chance to become the first Black coach to win the title at college football’s highest level.
One thing this expanded tournament could still use — a well-played, truly great football game. Other than the two-overtime win by Texas over Arizona State, all these playoff games have been double-digit snoozefests.
A quick look at the four contenders.
No. 5 Texas (13-2)
The Story: The Longhorns are 0-2 against Georgia and don’t have to worry about the Dawgs anymore. They are 13-0 against the rest of the country.
The Player: Receiver Matthew Golden had seven catches for 149 yards, a touchdown and a key two-point conversion in the second overtime in the win over Arizona State to help erase a lot of questionable stuff by his quarterback, Quinn Ewers.
Money Matters: The On3 NIL tracker has Arch Manning — nephew of Peyton and Eli — leading the country at $6.6 million in earnings. Not bad for a backup quarterback, though Manning stepped in capably, starting two games in place of the injured Ewers in September to guide the Longhorns to wins.
History’s Mysteries: The program with the third-most bowl appearances hasn’t won a national title since 2005. Before that, it was 1981.
He said it: “We’re not in awe that, ‘Hey, this is where we are.’ This is where we’re supposed to be.” —Coach Steve Sarkisian after the Arizona State win.
No. 6 Penn State (13-2)
The Story: After a loss to Oregon in the Big Ten title game, Franklin’s record against teams in the AP Top 10 dropped to 3-19. Oregon isn’t playing anymore; Ohio State is, and Franklin’s record against the Buckeyes is 1-10.
The Player: Tyler Warren might have played himself into the top tight end on the NFL draft board this season. In the 31-14 win over Boise State, two of his six catches were for touchdowns.
Money Matters: Quarterback Drew Allar makes around $4 million. He has committed to returning for his senior season, though this strong playoff run might change the calculus.
History’s Mysteries: The Nittany Lions and Notre Dame used to be the country’s two most notable independents, so it made sense they played every year from 1981-1992. But their only bowl meeting was a little-noticed 20-9 Notre Dame win in the 1976 Gator Bowl.
He said it: “A lot of college coaches I saw this week were talking about, ‘This is a four-game season.’ It’s not. It’s a one-game season.” —Franklin, after a first-round win over SMU, on the week-to-week nature of the first 12-team college playoff.
No. 7 Notre Dame (13-1)
The Story: When the Irish lost 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, Notre Dame’s odds of winning the national title ballooned to 100-1. Twelve wins later, including two by double digits in the playoffs, and they are listed at 7-1.
The Player: Let’s give this one to a coach. Marty Biagi is in charge of the special teams unit that returned a kickoff for a touchdown, kicked three field goals and baited Georgia into a key offsides penalty in the fourth quarter by quickly subbing out its entire punt team for the offense on fourth-and-1.
Money Matters: QB Riley Leonard is thought to be making around $1 million after his move to the South Bend from Duke.
History’s Mysteries: Notre Dame hadn’t won a big-time bowl game since Jan. 1, 1994, when it beat Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. The program that gave us everyone from The Gipper to Joe Montana seeks its first title since 1988.
He said it: “We’ve been here before. Now it’s time to get it fixed. We’ve got to get it fixed and get back to playing football the way we know how to play, we’ve played before, and we can, and we will.” —Freeman after the Sept. 7 loss to Northern Illinois.
No. 8 Ohio State (12-2)
The Story: After punctuating a fourth straight loss to Michigan by standing on the field looking lost while the Wolverines triggered a melee by planting the team flag at the 50-yard line, there was good reason to think coach Ryan Day could only keep his job by somehow rallying to win a national title that felt unlikely.
The Player: WR Jeremiah Smith has 290 yards and four touchdowns in the playoffs. He cradled in a pair of one-handed catches in an early-season win over Michigan State that put the label “playmaker” all over this highly touted freshman.
Money Matters: Smith is thought to have around $3.7 million in NIL deals.
History’s Mysteries: With Urban Meyer coaching, Ohio State won the CFP’s first playoff, the four-team affair that closed out the 2014 season. Since then, the Buckeyes are 3-4 over five playoff appearances.
He said it: “At the end of the day, we wanted to win a national championship, and the way that we got here wasn’t what we expected.” —Day after the win over Oregon.
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