Eric Williams
NFL Reporter
There’s no denying that Lamar Jackson is closing out his best season statistically as a pro. Jackson leads the league in passer rating (121.6), tops all quarterbacks in rushing yards (852), is second in passing touchdowns (39) and has just four interceptions through 16 games. He is also sixth in the league in passing yards (3,955).
All those numbers are better than what he put up during his MVP season last year. And they are better than the numbers of his closest competitor this season, Josh Allen.
That makes it tough to argue for Allen to win the award this season. However, there are other factors in favor of Allen winning his first MVP.
The Ravens are 7-3 against teams with winning records and still need a victory over the Cleveland Browns this weekend to claim the AFC North division title. Allen’s Bills are 3-3 against teams with winning records, but they are the only team to beat the top team in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the top team in the NFC, the Detroit Lions.
At 13-3 overall, Allen’s Bills have a better record than Jackson’s Ravens (11-5). Buffalo clinched the AFC East division title in Week 13. Allen will start this Sunday against the New England Patriots to keep his active starting streak alive, but he’ll play only a couple of series beyond that.
That means Jackson has an opportunity to enhance his MVP résumé while Allen watches Mitch Trubisky run Buffalo’s offense in the final week of the regular season. Jackson also owns the head-to-head matchup with Buffalo, with the Ravens easily handling the Bills 35-10 in Week 4.
A third MVP award would put Jackson into a different stratosphere. Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre have all won at least three MVP awards. But they all have Super Bowl victories on their résumés.
Jackson is 2-4 in the playoffs and has yet to reach a Super Bowl. Yes, the MVP award is for what a player has accomplished during the regular season, However, is it too soon to catapult Jackson into this elite group, when he hasn’t carried his team to the top of the mountain?
Another MVP would give Jackson two in a row and three overall. That’s one more than the player most NFL observers consider the best in the league in Patrick Mahomes — the quarterback of the team with the best record in the league, the 15-1 Chiefs, who are chasing an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title.
Allen has 40 total touchdowns, 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Buffalo lost talented offensive players in Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Mitch Morse during the offseason and, because of that, the Bills were expected to take a step back on offense.
But Allen figured out how to do more with less. Allen and left tackle Dion Dawkins were the only Buffalo players selected for the Pro Bowl. The Ravens, meanwhile, had five offensive players selected: running back Derrick Henry, fullback Patrick Ricard, receiver Zay Flowers, center Tyler Linderbaum and Jackson.
Allen was the catalyst for how the Bills performed on offense. And he played well toward the end of the season when Buffalo needed him most, finishing with 18 total touchdowns and just one turnover in the month of December. The Bills averaged 38 points per game and went 4-1 last month.
Despite Jackson having the better numbers, Allen has been at his best in the biggest moments of the regular season, which is the true measure of an MVP.
The oddsmakers feel similarly, with Allen still the front-runner heading into the final weekend of the regular season. Jackson is slightly behind, while Joe Burrow has crept up to the third spot with Saquon Barkley.
1. Josh Allen, Bills
Current MVP Odds: -300 (bet $10 to win $13.33 total)
One important stat to Allen that he will keep going is his consecutive starts mark, which shows his durability at the most important position in sports. Allen is currently at 114 consecutive starts, including the postseason. But he has a long way to go to catch the all-time leader, Brett Favre, who had 297 consecutive starts.
With 65 career rushing touchdowns, Allen is tied with Hall of Famer Thurman Thomas for the most in franchise history.
Does Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson have the better MVP case after 17 weeks?
2. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Current MVP Odds: +225 (bet $10 to win $32.50 total)
With 3,955 passing yards, Jackson has a chance to become the first player with at least 4,000 passing yards, 40 touchdown passes and fewer than five interceptions in a season.
Jackson also surpassed Michael Vick this season as the quarterback with the most rushing yards in NFL history with 6,110.
3. Saquon Barkley, Eagles
Current MVP Odds: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Barkley is the ninth player in league history to eclipse the 2000-yard rushing mark (2,005) and needs only 101 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season record of 2,105 yards set in 1984. However, with nothing for the team to gain, the Eagles smartly plan to sit Barkley in Week 18.
If not for several quarterbacks playing well, Barkley might be discussed more as a legitimate MVP candidate. He has accounted for 38% of Philadelphia’s offense this season, making the Eagles one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
4. Joe Burrow, Bengals
Current MVP Odds: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
The LSU product would be in the running with Jackson and Allen for MVP honors if not for a porous defense and his team’s .500 record. Burrow leads the league with career highs in passing yards (4,641) and touchdown passes (42).
He has at least three touchdown passes in eight consecutive games and could become just the fifth quarterback in NFL history with 5,000 passing yards and 45 touchdown passes in a season, joining Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Drew Brees and Mahomes.
5. Jared Goff, Lions
Current MVP Odds: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Mahomes certainly is a consideration at this spot because of how he has played late in games, helping the Chiefs earn the best record in the NFL. However, it’s hard to overlook how Goff has masterfully engineered the league’s most explosive offense.
Detroit leads the league at 33 points per game. Goff has 13,411 passing yards and 95 passing touchdowns since 2022 — both marks the best by any NFL quarterback over that span.
Honorable mention: Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Derrick Henry, Jayden Daniels
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.
[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]
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