Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Look-ahead lines can often be quite informative. For those who are unfamiliar, look-ahead lines are odds put out a week or more in advance of the games.
For example: In NFL Week 17 odds, look-ahead lines came out last week, before Week 16 games were played. In the case of the Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles clash, Caesars Sports made Philly an 11.5-point home favorite.
Then Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in the Eagles’ Week 16 loss at Washington. Now, that line is down to Eagles -7.5. And it could go lower still if Hurts is actually declared out.
“The speculation is that Hurts will be out. We’re seeing more Cowboys money,” Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said Thursday.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Cowboys vs. Eagles, along with the more notable matchup of the Green Bay Packers vs. the Minnesota Vikings, and other games. Let’s dive into NFL Week 17 betting nuggets.
NFL Rocks On FOX
Cowboys vs. Eagles is a 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff. It’s part of a solid FOX doubleheader, with Packers vs. Vikings following at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Caesars Sports opened Minnesota -1.5, went to -1 on Tuesday and then to pick ‘em on Wednesday. It’s certainly interesting that the line is moving away from a team that’s 13-2 straight up (SU) and a solid 10-4-1 against the spread (ATS).
Green Bay is 11-4 SU/9-6 ATS.
“There was sharp play on Packers +1.5,” Feazel said, before noting the public betting masses still aren’t quite sold on Minnesota either, despite the body of evidence. “The public is still questioning whether the Vikings are a true powerhouse.”
As for Sunday’s early kick on FOX, with Hurts healthy, Caesars made the Eagles 11.5-point favorites against a Cowboys team enduring another difficult season. In the wake of Hurts’ concussion, the point spread reopened Monday morning at Eagles -9.5 — which is kind of a middle ground, hedging whether Hurts would play or not.
Early Thursday, Philadelphia (12-3 SU/9-6 ATS) was at -9. Then came news that the team signed Ian Book off the practice squad, in the event that Hurts doesn’t clear concussion protocol. That led Caesars to go straight from Eagles -9 to -7.5.
There’s another element, though, beyond Hurts’ status: The Cowboys are still playing hard. In Week 16, Dallas (7-8 SU and ATS) was eliminated from playoff contention before its Sunday night home game vs. Tampa Bay.
But the Cowboys went all out and hung on for a 26-24 victory as 4.5-point underdogs. Bettors are taking note.
“There’s sentiment that this Cowboys team is not quitting,” Feazel said.
Is Mike McCarthy making a case to Jerry Jones to keep his job?
Rookie QB Showdown
The Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders game got flexed into the Sunday night slot this week. Both teams are contending for playoff spots, and there’s also some allure to rookie QBs Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. squaring off.
But it’s not really an even fight.
Daniels has started all season for Washington (10-5 SU/9-5-1 ATS). He’s been extremely impressive, most recently leading a 36-33 comeback victory over Philadelphia in Week 16. Penix just made his first start in Week 16 against a dismal New York Giants outfit, and the Falcons (8-7 SU/7-8 ATS) rolled 34-7.
“We’re seeing a lot more Commanders money. All of that is kind of due to Penix. It’s a rookie QB matchup, but one rookie has a lot more experience,” Feazel said.
NFL Sharp Side
Last week, professional bettor Randy McKay was on the Carolina Panthers +4.5 at home vs. the Arizona Cardinals. That bet got there, as Carolina won outright in overtime 36-30.
McKay is going back to Carolina well this week, taking the Panthers +8.5 on the road against Tampa Bay.
“These two teams played a month ago, and Tampa won in OT,” McKay said, alluding to the Bucs’ 26-23 road win. “What has changed since then is maybe a healthier Mike Evans [for Tampa]. But this Carolina team has been playing everyone tough.”
The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
McKay also likes the Vikings at pick ‘em against the visiting Packers.
“The Rodney Dangerfield of NFL teams is getting no respect. But I see them finding a way against a Green Bay team the Vikings beat earlier this season,” McKay said.
Indeed, way back in Week 4, Minnesota went to Green Bay and notched a 31-29 victory as a 2.5-point road underdog.
What is the key to the Green Bay Packers’ success?
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
There aren’t yet many major wagers on Week 17 NFL odds for the weekend. But a monster play showed up for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers Christmas Day game.
And the bettor cashed out big.
A Nevada customer of Caesars Sports wagered $1.45 million on Chiefs moneyline -145. So, as long as the Chiefs won — regardless of the margin — the bettor would profit $1 million.
K.C. did that with ease, rolling over Pittsburgh 29-10.
On the flip side, a Caesars customer put $66,700 on an alternate spread of Steelers +7.5 (-258), figuring the home underdog could at least stay within a touchdown. But Russell Wilson & Co. couldn’t do so.
In the Ravens-Texans game on Christmas Day, a bettor put $50,000 on Ravens moneyline -178. Baltimore got the job done with a 31-2 road blowout, netting $28,089.89 in profit for the Caesars customer (total payout $78,089.89).
Finally, an interesting futures bet landed at Caesars, on the surging Los Angeles Rams: $25,000 on L.A. to win the NFC, at +1500 odds. If the Rams keep rolling and win the conference title, then the bettor pockets a healthy $375,000 profit (total payout $400,000).
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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