Oregon Ducks Football: Yards per play analysis

One of our goals here at Addicted to Quack is to provide analysis that cannot be found in a box score. To give readers insight into what happened during a game that they cannot easily find themselves.

Below all the analysis can be found by looking at box scores and using a calculator. However, a decent amount of math is involved, and a lot of data is going to be presented so to keep things clear for you the reader a lot of charts will also be involved.

When I myself am dissecting a football game after it has happened, I have found that the best stat from a box score to look at is Yards per Play as total yards can be misleading.

Before going into Oregon’s Yards Per Play Gained and Yards Per Play allowed here is a chart that simply summarizes the point differential of every Duck football game this year.

As you can see, and can likely remember, Oregon has comfortably won 7 of their 11 games played this season, with 4 of the 11 being tight heart racing affairs.

Now here is a chart that summarizes the difference in Yards/Play Gained minus Yards/Play Allowed for every Duck football game this year.

As you can see Oregon has outgained every team they have played on a per-play basis which is very good.

To help understand this chart and the degree to which Oregon outplayed their opponent I find that a simple way to contextualize the difference in yards per play from the better team’s perspective is as follows:

• +0.01 Yards/Play to +0.75 Yards/Play – A close game with one team only slightly better
• +0.76 Yards/Play to +1.50 Yards/Play – One team was definitively better; however, it is still possible to lose a game on the scoreboard with this difference in yards/play
• +1.51 Yards/Play to +2.25 Yards/Play – A very dominant showing
• +2.26 Yards/Play and Above – Absolute Butt Kicking

If we group the games played into these four categories here is where each Oregon opponent would fall:

• +0.01 Yards/Play to +0.75 Yards/Play – None
• +0.76 Yards/Play to +1.50 Yards/Play – Idaho (10-pt win), Boise State (3), Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (3)
• +1.51 Yards/Play to +2.25 Yards/Play – UCLA (21), Michigan State (21), Purdue (35), Michigan (21), Maryland (21)
• +2.26 Yards/Play and Above – Oregon State (35), Illinois (29)

To me there are four results that stand out where the final margin on the scoreboard does not line up with the difference in yards/play. They are Boise State, Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin. Today I wanted to dive deeper into these 4 games to determine why the score didn’t line up with the yards/play number.

Boise State

Margin of Victory = 3

Yards/Play Differential = +1.12 Oregon

Given the advantage Oregon had on a per-play basis I would not expect that this game would have come down to a walk-off field goal to finally beat the Broncos of Boise State, especially when you consider that Oregon had two special teams touchdowns and a third good play on special teams to set up a short touchdown drive. With the yards/play difference of 1.12 and good work on special teams I would normally expect this to be a somewhat comfortable win. The biggest reason this game was closer than expected is due to the two typical factors that could throw off a game result from its yards/play differential: turnovers and penalties. Oregon lost the turnover battle 0-2 in this game and committed 24 more yards worth of penalties. The turnovers especially played a big role, as one turnover was as Oregon was driving to extend the lead over the Broncos and the second turnover gave Boise State excellent field position to start a drive of their own that would end up in the end zone.

Ohio State

Margin of Victory = 1

Yards/Play Differential = +0.76 Oregon

The difference in yards/play here is barely within the category that would mean Oregon was definitively the better team but the line is the line. When you consider the fact that on a per-play basis Oregon was the better team and the Ducks had an extra possession thanks to an onside kick that was kicked directly at the spleen of a Buckeye return team member a 1-point margin is slightly surprising. What is even more interesting is that the two biggest factors that influence the score of a football game outside of yards per play (turnovers and penalties) also favored the Ducks as Oregon won the turnover battle 2-0 (this includes said Spleen kick as a fumble) and had 45 fewer penalty yards. The best explanation I can think of for why this game was only a one-point win for the Ducks was special teams. Oregon left 5 points on the board as a result of a missed field goal, blocked extra point, and an unsuccessful two-point conversion attempt.

Purdue

Margin of Victory = 35

Yards/Play Differential = +1.91

Every other game that fell within this category of major positive yards/play differential was exactly a 21-point victory, except this game against Purdue which was by 14 more points. Looking at the usual suspects of turnovers and penalties offers a bit of explanation. Oregon had a +1 turnover margin and committed 15 fewer yards worth of penalties. This explains part of this puzzle but that isn’t enough to fully explain why this game was out of hand to such a large degree. I think the second half of the puzzle was that Purdue was able to move the ball a little bit on almost all of their drives had but they couldn’t hit anything explosive, meaning they could gain some yardage but couldn’t translate any of that yardage into points.

This transitions nicely into the last game I wanted to talk about, which is last week’s game against Wisconsin. Purdue was able to gain at least one first down on 80% of their drives. Compare this to Wisconsin this past week who was only able to get a first down on 36% of their drives. But 75% of the time when Wisconsin was able to get a single first down, they were able to further continue that drive and translate it into points.

Wisconsin

Margin of Victory = 3

Yards/Play Differential = +1.34 Oregon

I believe there are two factors that lead to the final score of this game being closer than the yards/play differential would suggest as the final turnover margin was a perfectly even 0, and Wisconsin only had one more yard in penalties.

1) The above discussion around Wisconsin’s offence being all or nothing in this game – either doing absolutely nothing with the ball or scoring points, with nothing in between.

2) Turnover Magnitude

Each team committed exactly one turnover in this game. Oregon turned the ball over with 5:25 left in the first quarter when they had the ball at the Wisconsin 9-yard line on 1st & goal. If Oregon does not turn the ball over they are virtually guaranteed 3 points and are potentially able to get 7 points on that drive making this a very critical turnover. Wisconsin turned the ball over with 1:26 left in the fourth quarter when they had the ball at their own 24 yard line. If Wisconsin does not turn the ball over they are still 40 yards away from being in field goal range. And due to the time left on the clock instead of trying to score points on a short field Oregon smartly just runs out the clock to secure the victory. While this turnover ended the game and therefore had a massive impact on the result of who won versus lost it did not have as big of an impact on the score of the game as Oregon smartly elected to not try and convert that turnover into points. Whereas Oregon’s turnover based upon the position of the field it happened directly effected the scoreboard.

What does this analysis mean? While some pundits and analysts out there may have the take that “Oregon is lucky to keep surviving these close games,” I would argue that based on yards/play, Oregon has been unlucky that three of those four close games ended up being close at all. However, I think the fact Oregon has had to play in some tight fourth quarters, despite being the better team, may be beneficial with the biggest rivalry game of the season on deck followed by a potential Big 10 championship and eventual playoff games.