NL West season preview: Can anyone top the Dodgers? Will the Padres, Giants or D-backs reach the playoffs?

Opening Day is less than two weeks away on March 27, but for two of the teams in the National League, the season starts much sooner. The Dodgers and Cubs will kick off this year’s regular-season action next week with two games in Tokyo.

We took a look at the NL East and NL Central earlier this week. It’s time to break down what could be the best division in the sport in 2025, the National League West.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 14): 97-65, 97.5% odds to make the playoffs, 84.2% odds to win the division

What happened last year? With Ohtani in the fold and recording the first 50-50 season in MLB history, the Dodgers cruised to yet another division title despite an onslaught of injuries in the starting rotation. They were challenged by the Padres in the five-game NLDS but handily defeated the Mets and then the Yankees to win the franchise’s first non-pandemic World Series title since 1988. Then they doubled down by soundly winning the offseason with the additions of Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Michael Conforto, Tanner Scott and more.

Best-case scenario: The Dodgers do what everyone is afraid of and absolutely demolish the rest of the league, setting the MLB record for wins in a season. Shohei Ohtani continues to be a machine, delivering his one-of-one prowess offensively while returning to being one of the league’s best on the mound. Roki Sasaki is the runaway NL Rookie of the Year, Blake Snell mows hitters down, and L.A. captures back-to-back World Series titles.

Worst-case scenario: Disaster strikes, and the Dodgers not only fail to make it back to the World Series but also get knocked out before reaching the NLCS. The team’s rotation is once again decimated by injuries, and the organization struggles to fill holes the way they managed to in 2024. Sasaki isn’t ready for the big leagues and disappoints as L.A.’s big-money strategy fails to deliver.

Make-or-break player: Shohei Ohtani. It’s tough to envision a season in which Ohtani is a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers and isn’t the team’s make-or-break player. The Dodgers’ success is significantly attributed to his prolific greatness, and even with all the other amazing players on the roster, if Ohtani is unable to perform at his typical levels, L.A. will suffer. We’ve reached a point where his offensive numbers are pretty consistent from year to year, but it’ll be interesting to see how he performs once he resumes pitching full-time. With the Dodgers slowing down his ramp-up, it remains to be seen when that will happen.

Season prediction: The Dodgers are an absolute force, and if they play to 90% of their capabilities, they’re going to put together one of the most impressive regular seasons in MLB history, and they’ll probably become the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the Yankees won three straight from 1998 to 2000. Even if things don’t fall completely into place for L.A. — that often happens in baseball — the Dodgers’ roster might be the best, top to bottom, in league history. They’re going to be a problem for the other 29 teams all year.

San Diego Padres

Projected record: 82-80, 36.1% odds to make the playoffs, 4.0% odds to win the division

What happened last year? After a confounding and disappointing 2023, the Padres bounced back in 2024. With a crew of star players, they won 93 games and made the Dodgers sweat out the division title in the final weeks of September. As the NL’s top wild card, San Diego easily bounced Atlanta and then had L.A. on the ropes in the NLDS before another disappointing October exit for the Friars. The winter brought a great deal of uncertainty, as an ownership dispute seemed to prevent the organization from doing much of anything in free agency.

Best-case scenario: The Padres finally put it all together, getting great contributions from all of their superstars while Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. earn MVP votes. Last year’s rookie sensation Jackson Merrill takes another step forward and solidifies his place as the best center fielder in baseball. Xander Bogaerts plays like the Bogaerts of old. And not only does San Diego find a rhythm on offense, but also their pitching staff helps support a strong lineup, making them one of the NL’s toughest teams and carrying the Padres to the NLCS.

Worst-case scenario: Machado continues to age, as injuries and lack of production lead to a down season. Tatis is unable to recapture the electric form that made him one of the faces of the league. But the actual worst case for the Padres is if the pitching is unable to keep the team in games for the duration of the season. After Yu Darvish, Michael King and Dylan Cease, a rotation full of question marks gets shelled, and the Padres are forced to sell at the deadline.

Make-or-break player: Fernando Tatis Jr. There are few players in baseball who captivate the masses like Tatis when he’s on. Whether it’s monstrous homers, Gold Glove defense in right field or his athleticism around the diamond, the man is truly electric. If the Padres are to do anything significant in 2025, they’ll need their two-time All-Star to carry them. We haven’t seen Tatis return to the level he was playing at in 2022, before he was suspended for PEDs, but he has shown signs that player is still there. If he can return to top form, it could be a huge factor in sending the Padres on a deep postseason run.

Season prediction: The Padres will be one of the more interesting this season. On paper they still have plenty of high-end talent, but between the team’s ownership situation and stated desire to cut salary for payroll relief, there are a number of possible outcomes in San Diego. That said, until further changes to the roster, the Padres should once again be in the NL wild-card picture, with the opportunity to upset anyone they face in October.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected record: 86-76, 59.7% odds to make the playoffs, 9.2% odds to win the division

What happened last year? Coming off an NL pennant, the Diamondbacks were pretty ho-hum in 2024. They won 89 games and were in the wild-card mix until the final day of the season — or, rather, the day after, when they were eliminated after the Mets and Braves both clinched via their bizarre doubleheader. The D-backs surprised everyone with a quietly strong offseason headlined by the unexpected signing of ace Corbin Burnes.

Best-case scenario: The D-backs come out the gate like a team possessed and show that their new roster has what it takes to compete in baseball’s toughest division. Former NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll returns to his 2024 form and puts himself back in MVP discussions, forming one of the best tandems in the sport alongside 2024 NL MVP finalist Ketel Marte. But the biggest strength is Arizona’s rotation, which is in the conversation for best in MLB, as Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt pitch the D-backs not only back into the postseason but also all the way to the NLCS with another chance to shock baseball.

Worst-case scenario: The investment in Burnes doesn’t pay off, as the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner regresses. The rest of Arizona’s rotation does the same as what was thought to be the team’s strength fails to come to fruition. Carroll’s slow start in 2024 carries into 2025, and the lack of production seeps into the rest of the lineup, causing the offense to be stagnant as the D-backs find themselves on the outside of the postseason picture once again.

Make-or-break player: Ketel Marte. Marte was the D-backs’ best player last season, and he put himself in the conversation as one of the best players in the sport on the way to finishing top-three in MVP voting. He has taken his game to new heights over the past six seasons, and if he’s healthy, there’s no reason he can’t continue to be a force at the top of Arizona’s lineup. Marte is a top-10 player in the game who’ll have another opportunity this season to show the world just how good he is.

Season prediction: The D-backs could be one of the best teams in the National League this season. They added a former Cy Young winner to their rotation in the offseason, and they made their team better in multiple areas with the addition of first baseman Josh Naylor in their lineup. Who’s to say Arizona isn’t the third- or fourth-best team in the NL by the time we get to September? The NL wild-card race is guaranteed to be a fight this season, but Arizona has enough to get a say and secure their playoff spot before it’s all said and done.

San Francisco Giants

Projected record: 81-81, 28.4% odds to make the playoffs, 2.6% odds to win the division

What happened last year? After a winter of significant spending, it was another disappointing, .500-ish season in San Francisco. New addition Jung-Ho Lee was injured for most of the season as the Giants were largely a non-factor in the playoff picture. After an 80-82 finish, they again were major players in free agency, adding shortstop Willy Adames and veteran Justin Verlander during Buster Posey’s first winter at the helm.

Best-case scenario: When it comes to the Giants, starting pitching is always going to be front-and-center. If things go well, it’ll mean ace Logan Webb continuing to be one of the best starters in baseball. Adames becomes the big bat San Francisco hoped for as the Giants’ offense finds the power they’ve desperately needed. The Giants are in the middle of the wild-card race all season, and their pitching prowess means they constantly put other teams on upset alert.

Worst-case scenario: Buster Posey’s first year as president of baseball operations doesn’t prove fruitful, as the 42-year-old Verlander, Robbie Ray and former top prospect Kyle Harrison are unable to stay healthy, leaving Webb to once again try to carry the team’s rotation. Even worse is another season of stagnant offense, with the addition of Adames’ bat doing little to improve the lineup’s production.

Make-or-break player: Willy Adames. The Giants have been in need of offense for a while, and after adding Korean outfielder Lee last offseason, they acquired the power-hitting shortstop to add some thump in the middle of the order. Adames’ importance as a right-handed run producer can’t be understated. The shortstop is coming off the best season of his career, with career highs in hits, homers, runs and RBI. The ominous stat that has hung over the Giants since the departure of Barry Bonds is that no player has eclipsed 30 homers in the Bay since MLB’s all-time leader in homers did it in 2004. While it’s a tall task for a right-handed hitter in San Francisco, Adames’ consistency is a welcome sight, and his ability to lead a clubhouse will also be a huge benefit.

Season prediction: The addition of Adames notwithstanding, it feels like the Giants’ goal this season is to have the players who were already on the roster improve. It’s not a bad strategy, with solid players such as Lee, Matt Chapman and 2024 All-Star Heliot Ramos entrenched on the roster. Yet it’s fair to wonder if they can be more than just a middling team in baseball’s toughest division. The Giants are going to show flashes, but it’s difficult to imagine a jump back into the postseason in 2025.

Colorado Rockies

Projected record: 63-99, 0.1% odds to make the playoffs, 0.0% odds to win the division

What happened last year? Another season of irrelevance. In a loaded division full of stars, the Rockies were totally forgettable — and out of the playoff picture virtually immediately. Then, as per usual, the Rockies spent almost no money in the winter.

Best-case scenario: First and foremost, Kris Bryant returns to being a power threat, hitting 30 home runs for the first time since 2019. And it’s not just Bryant who performs. The team’s young core of Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Nolan Jones all become the best versions of themselves as the Rockies make their opponents sweat for the first time in years.

Worst-case scenario: It can’t really get worse for the Rockies than it’s already been, right? Bryant continues to be a shell of his former self, yet again playing less than half the season. Colorado’s young core of players fails to develop, and some even begin to regress as the Rockies sink further into the depths of baseball’s cellar, becoming the worst team in baseball.

Make-or-break player: Kris Bryant. The reality is that the Rockies’ make-or-break player for the past three seasons has been Bryant. The former NL MVP hasn’t played more than 80 games in a season since he signed his seven-year, $182 million deal with Colorado in 2022. While the days of Bryant being a perennial All-Star might be in the rearview mirror, there’s nothing that says he can’t still be a real power threat in his 30s. The Rockies need that from him if they are to have any hope of staying afloat.

Season prediction: Honestly, the bar for the Rockies couldn’t be any lower than it already is. They’ve been among the bottom three teams in baseball for the past five years, and it’s hard to imagine they’re not close to that level again in 2025. But they have interesting talent and a solid crop of top-tier prospects who could be on the door of the big leagues. The goal in Colorado should be to play competitive baseball.