NL East season preview: Can the Braves bounce back? What should we expect from Juan Soto’s first year in Queens?

Spring has sprung, which means it’s time to preview the 2025 MLB season.

A lot could still change between now and league-wide Opening Day on March 27, but let’s begin with a look at the landscape of the National League East.

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Atlanta Braves

Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 10): 93-69, 92.6% odds to make the playoffs, 62.0% odds to win the division

What happened last year? The injury gods cast decimation and destruction upon the Atlanta Braves, as reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., hard-throwing ace Spencer Strider and a cavalcade of other regulars spent significant time on the shelf. A career year from DH Marcell Ozuna and a Cy Young-winning bounce-back from Chris Sale squeaked the Braves into a playoff spot before a wild-card round sweep defeat against the San Diego Padres sent Atlanta packing.

Best-case scenario: Acuña and Strider, two of the game’s best players in 2023, come back with a vengeance. The rest of Atlanta’s still-loaded core — Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris, Ozuna, Sale, Matt Olson, Jurickson Profar, Orlando Arcia, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach, who have all performed at an All-Star level in one or both of the past two seasons — stays healthy and productive. The Braves win 110 games and the World Series.

Worst-case scenario: Atlanta sinks to fourth place as injuries expose a concerning lack of organizational depth. Acuña, like the last time he returned from ACL surgery in 2022, needs a few months to recapture his electrifying best. The enormous uptick in year-over-year innings for Atlanta’s three best returning arms — Sale (70 more in ‘24), Lopez (69 more), Schwellenbach (58 more) — works on a tape delay to undermine the rotation. The catching situation, a key dynamic in this era of Braves baseball, struggles with the departure of Travis d’Arnaud and the recent injury to Sean Murphy. Blooper, the team’s confrontational mascot, is indicted for tax fraud and ends up serving a year in the slammer.

Make-or-break player: Chris Sale. It was a magical 2024 for the limbed-out lefty. After a half-decade of injuries, the sidewinder came roaring back in his age-35 season to lead the league in strikeouts, post a 2.38 ERA in 177 2/3 innings and earn his first career Cy Young. But can he do it again? Because, well, the Braves kinda need him to. A healthy Chris Sale is a monster; a hurt Chris Sale is a monstrous issue.

Season prediction: Division champs and a nice playoff run. The Braves simply have too many good offensive pieces. Last year was an injury-heavy aberration that can’t possibly happen again. Granted, the lack of depth beyond the starting lineup is a real concern, but there’s just too much established talent on this team to seriously wager against them.

Philadelphia Phillies

Projected record: 87-75, 68.9% odds to make the playoffs, 20.6% odds to win the division

What happened last year? The Phillies won the NL East for the first time since 2011 but crumbled against the Mets in a strikeout-filled NLDS capitulation.

Best-case scenario: A forest of greased poles and a parade down Broad Street. Veteran hitters Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner continue to fend off Father Time. The younger trio of Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott reach their full potential. And the pitching staff, which has a shot to be historically good, is boosted by offseason acquisition Jesus Luzardo and top pitching prospect Andrew Painter.

Worst-case scenario: Continuity begets stagnation, and the Phillies miss out on October for the first time since 2021. The bullpen misses Jeff Hoffman and can’t finish games. All-world hurler Zack Wheeler starts showing signs of wear in his age-35 season. The bottom of the lineup, which underwhelmed in 2024, drops down another tier. An important player or two gets hurt, and the Phillies spend October on the couch watching the Eagles and “Landman” instead of at Citizens Bank Park.

Make-or-break player: Trea Turner. The twitchy shortstop, who is under contract in Philly for another nine seasons, had a topsy-turvy second year in the City of Brotherly Love. He was money in the first half but had a below-average hitting line after the All-Star break. Finding a sense of consistency will be huge for Turner, who could soon be thrust back into the leadoff spot.

Season prediction: A wild-card spot and a nice playoff run. This Phillies club is, year-over-year, the most similarly built roster in baseball. Early in the winter, it appeared that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was willing to oversee a roster shake-up. But that never came to fruition, and this Phillies club is going into battle with the same soldiers. Once again, the simple, all-encompasing question for this group is: Do they strike out a prohibitive amount in October? Because while the window isn’t closing, the future is most certainly getting hazier. Realmuto and Schwarber are free agents after this season, while the core of other high-paid vets clicks one year closer to decline. The clock is ticking. Can the Phillies make the most of their opportunity?

New York Mets

Projected record: 86-76, 63.8% odds to make the playoffs, 17.1% odds to win the division

What happened last year? The OMG/Grimace Mets captivated baseball and the Big Apple on their way to an improbable October run that crashed to a halt in the NLCS due to a dearth of pitching. Then they gave Juan Soto $765 million in December.

Best-case scenario: An overpowering offense leads this club to a division crown and the first World Series title of the Moneybag Mets era. The Soto-led lineup rakes the way it should, with Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos all contributing All-Star-level performances. The MLB pitching coaches conjure more magic from what looks to be an undermanned rotation. Sean Manaea’s oblique strain — he’s expected to be out until April — doesn’t linger, and the lefty hurler continues his brilliance from 2024. Jeff McNeil writes his own Latin pop smash hit, and the Mets kick off an era of dominance in Queens.

Worst-case scenario: A starting pitching catastrophe drops the Mets to an embarrassing fourth-place finish. Manaea and fellow injured starter Frankie Montas turn out to be unavailable for quite a while. None of the other rotation pieces steps up. Alonso’s slow offensive decline continues. Lindor is simply good instead of an MVP candidate. Vientos can’t back up his breakout year. The bullpen leaks runs, and everything goes sideways by the All-Star break.

Make-or-break player: Kodai Senga. In 2023, the Japanese forkballer was a legitimate No. 1 starter, posting an ERA under 3.00 in 166⅓ innings. That earned him a runner-up Rookie of the Year finish and a handful of Cy Young votes. In 2024, Senga battled injuries all year and made just one regular-season start. He returned for a few postseason outings but didn’t look like the same guy. The Mets are desperate for a return to form, but the range of possible outcomes for Senga is downright chasmic right now.

Season prediction: A playoff appearance, a pretty good year, but one that falls short of expectations. The 2024 Mets ran out of gas because they ran out of pitching, an issue that doesn’t seem rectified five months after their NLCS defeat. Don’t get it twisted: This lineup rules, and the Soto Show is going to convert youngsters in New York to the Mets. But it’s difficult to imagine this starting rotation guiding the Mets through the October gauntlet to a World Series title.

Washington Nationals

Projected record: 73-89, 3.1% odds to make the playoffs, 0.2% odds to win the division

What happened last year? The Nats were aggressively meh in 2024, though a few bright spots such as James Wood and Dylan Crews provided encouraging glimpses of a better future.

Best-case scenario: A rejuvenating, surprising, against-the-odds playoff appearance. Wood and Crews are immediately franchise-changing, All-Star-level performers. Shortstop CJ Abrams proves that his stellar first half was the real deal. Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell, a pair of veteran sluggers added during the offseason, give the lineup some much-needed depth. Arms such as Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker and MacKenzie Gore continue to take steps forward while under-the-radar signings such as Mike Soroka, Trevor Williams and Shinnosuke Ogasawara contribute solid innings.

Worst-case scenario: A deflating fifth place in the NL East raises doubts about the organization’s immediate future. Wood and Crews show that their flaws — swing-and-miss and too many ground balls, respectively — are legitimate concerns. The starting pitching can’t hang, and the Nats are out of most games by the third inning. None of the other young players, such as Jacob Young, Luis Garcia or Keibert Ruiz, plays well enough to solidify themselves as key members of the next good Nats team.

Make-or-break player: MacKenzie Gore. Acquired in the Juan Soto deal, the 26-year-old lefty has shined in spurts but has yet to deliver a full season of excellence. Besides flamethrowing prospect Jarlin Susana, Gore is still D.C.’s best candidate to become a homegrown starting pitcher atop the rotation. That will happen only if he can figure out a way to get right-handed hitters out.

Season prediction: An invigorating, hope-building, fourth-place finish. This Nats team seems like a group on the brink that, with a handful of big-time free-agent additions, could’ve made some serious noise in the wild-card hunt. But there’s a dearth of obvious impact here, particularly on the pitching side. A strong step forward from Gore seems like an absolute must this year. The top objective for the 2025 Nats will be convincing the team’s ownership group that the 2026 Nats are worth investing in.

Miami Marlins

Projected record: 72-90, 1.8% odds to make the playoffs, 0.2% odds to win the division

What happened last year? Coming off a Cinderella playoff appearance in 2023, the Marlins … fired GM Kim Ng, got off to a horrendous start, traded away a treasure trove at the deadline and finished the season with 100 losses.

Best-case scenario: A cheeky, scrappy, fourth-place finish. The rotation could be pretty solid, especially if Sandy Alcantara looks like his old self after a year on the shelf and No. 2 starter Ryan Weathers sustains his spring training velocity jump. Shortstop Xavier Edwards and DH Jonah Bride, who are both coming off stealthy good offensive seasons, build on that to lead the offense.

Worst-case scenario: Worst team in MLB history. This offense could be a cataclysm, a mudslide, a no-good-very-bad-day. Only the Chicago White Sox are projected to have a soggier lineup. It’s really difficult to win baseball games when you don’t score runs.

Make-or-break player: Sandy Alcantara. The 2023 NL Cy Young winner missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery but was named Miami’s Opening Day starter way back on Feb. 13. He’s under team control through the end of 2027 at a very affordable price for a frontline arm. Considering that this Marlins front office has traded away anything of value in recent months, it’ll be interesting to see if/when they pull the ripcord on Alcantara if he has a strong first half.

Season prediction: The pitching is good enough to keep Miami from sinking to historic depths, but the Fish finish with the worst record in the NL. This Marlins team, unfortunately, is designed to lose, so they’ll probably do that a lot. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix ripped this thing up from the studs to rebuild the organizational foundation from scratch. There are a few interesting players here and there, but it’s going to take a long while before baseball is relevant again in Miami. It seems unlikely that the players destined to change the fortunes of this bizarro franchise are currently employed by the Marlins.