Premier League’s nine-team race for Champions League spots predicted

With the Premier League title race effectively over and the three promoted teams looking increasingly doomed to relegation, it is the race for European qualification that could provide the most intrigue and drama in the remaining months of this campaign.

The Premier League is expected to receive five Champions League places next season, and it could be argued that more than half the division could legitimately be targeting those spots. After all, only seven points separate fifth-placed Newcastle United from 11th-placed Brentford.

Assuming that Liverpool and Arsenal finish first and second, there are therefore three Champions League places up for grabs for nine teams – and possibly even 10 teams, if Tottenham Hotspur can produce a late charge.

Here, Telegraph Sport assesses which sides are best placed to compete for a place in Europe’s premier competition.

Nottingham Forest

Biggest strength

Their defensive resilience. Only Liverpool have kept more clean sheets (11) than Forest (10) this season and, of the teams below them in the league, only Bournemouth have conceded fewer goals. Forest centre-backs Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic have been largely excellent throughout the campaign.

The concern here, though, will be that this solidity has twice evaporated in recent weeks. Forest conceded five at Bournemouth in January and then four at Newcastle on Sunday. Those were alarming results.

Biggest weakness

For Forest, it is a question of sustainability. Chris Wood has been exceptional in attack, scoring many more goals than his expected goals tally would suggest he should have done. Can he maintain such overperformance for the remainder of this campaign, though? And can the team as a whole produce enough goals to secure their place in the top five?

Forest rank eighth in the Premier League for goals scored and only 14th for the number of shots they have taken. Their collected expected goals figure for the campaign is 33.9, which is only the 14th highest in the division.

Fixtures

Arsenal (H), Manchester City (H), Ipswich (A), Manchester United (H), Aston Villa (A), Everton (H), Spurs (A), Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester City (H), West Ham United (A), Chelsea (H)

Predicted finishing position: 6th

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Manchester City

Biggest strength

The quality of their attacking players. Even in a dreadful season for his club, Erling Haaland has still scored 19 goals in 25 league appearances. New signing Omar Marmoush has already struck a hat-trick in the Premier League and looks primed to cause some damage to opponents in the remainder of this season. Phil Foden could flicker back into form at any moment, while Savinho seems to be growing in stature.

Biggest weakness

The psychological impact of this season’s struggles, on the playing squad and on Pep Guardiola, is evidently considerable. City are simply not a happy club at the moment. Their injury list is problematic, too, with John Stones and Manuel Akanji both out with long-term problems (joining key midfielder Rodri on the sidelines).

Fixtures

Spurs (A), Forest (A), Brighton (H), Leicester (H), United (A), Palace (H), Everton (A), Villa (H), Wolves (H), Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)

Predicted finishing position: 3rd

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Newcastle United

Biggest strength

In Alexander Isak, Newcastle possess perhaps the best centre-forward in the division right now. His two goals against Forest on Sunday took him to 19 in the Premier League this season and he undoubtedly has the ability to fire Newcastle back into the Champions League.

Biggest weakness

Inconsistency. In the past few weeks, Eddie Howe’s side have lost at home to Bournemouth and Fulham, and produced a horrific showing in a 4-0 defeat at City. This is a team that has been blowing hot and cold since the turn of the year. When they are good, they are almost unstoppable. When they are bad, they are remarkably vulnerable.

Fixtures

Liverpool (A), West Ham (A), Brentford (H), Leicester (A), United (H), Palace (H), Villa (A), Ipswich (H), Brighton (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Everton (H)

Predicted finishing position: 4th

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Bournemouth

Biggest strength

Andoni Iraola’s tactical approach, with high-intensity pressing and boldness in possession, makes his team an extremely awkward opponent for any side in the Premier League. Guardiola himself has said Bournemouth’s style is the new “modern football”.

Bournemouth’s results against the big teams speak for themselves: this season they have dismantled Arsenal, City, Spurs, Newcastle and Forest. Their expected goals tally (47.7) is the third highest in the division, while they also have the third best defensive record.

Biggest weakness

Bournemouth have played for a long time with a large injury list, and they operate with an aggressive and physically draining style of football. Even with the return of injured players, it is possible that they begin to run out of energy by the end of the campaign.

This happened, to an extent, last season: Iraola’s team lost their final three league games of the season and won only two of their last eight.

Fixtures

Brighton (A), Spurs (A), Brentford (H), Ipswich (H), West Ham (A), Fulham (H), Palace (A), United (H), Arsenal (A), Villa (H), City (A), Leicester (H)

Predicted finishing position: 7th

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Chelsea

Biggest strength

Chelsea are currently on a desperate run of form but there can be no doubting the quality of Enzo Maresca’s squad, especially once key striker Nicolas Jackson is available again. Cole Palmer, especially, has demonstrated that he has the ability to win matches on his own.

The returns of Jackson, Roméo Lavia and Noni Madueke should give Chelsea a different edge in the final part of the season. It is also worth noting that Chelsea have the second-highest expected goals figure (51.5, behind only Liverpool) in the league. Their fans will hope it is only a matter of time before their attack clicks back into gear.

Biggest weakness

The goalkeeping situation is deeply alarming. Chelsea have kept only four clean sheets all season (only four Premier League teams have kept fewer) and neither Robert Sánchez nor Filip Jorgensen have impressed between the posts. Jorgensen’s error against Villa on Saturday was a horrible moment for the 22-year-old.

Chelsea will also have to navigate the demands of playing European football on Thursday nights, with Maresca’s side expected to go all the way in the Conference League.

Fixtures

Southampton (H), Leicester (H), Arsenal (A), Spurs (H), Brentford (A), Ipswich (H), Fulham (A), Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), United (H), Forest (A)

Predicted finishing position: 5th

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Aston Villa

Biggest strength

After a busy January transfer window, Villa have real strength in depth in attack. The arrivals of Marcus Rashford, Donyell Malen and Marco Asensio have provided Unai Emery with a different dynamic and more options in the final third. All three players appear to have settled in quickly, with Rashford in particular looking sharp despite his exile at Manchester United.

Biggest weakness

Villa have excelled in the Champions League this season and they will expect to progress beyond Club Brugge in the round of 16. It is no easy task to balance European commitments with Premier League duties, and this threatens to be Villa’s downfall in the race for the top five.

Only once in eight attempts this season have Villa won the league match immediately following a midweek game in the Champions League.

Fixtures

Palace (A), Brentford (A), Brighton (A), Forest (H), Southampton (A), Newcastle (H), City (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Spurs (H), United (A)

Predicted finishing position: 9th

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Brighton

Biggest strength

Brighton’s squad is stacked with talented attacking players who can produce moments of magic in the final third. Few teams in Europe boast as many exciting forwards. Kaoru Mitoma, Danny Welbeck, João Pedro, Yankuba Minteh, Georginio Rutter, Brajan Gruda and Simon Adingra have the ability to cause problems for even the meanest defence.

Biggest weakness

Brighton have the second-youngest team in the division (behind Chelsea) and the youngest manager in Premier League history. A frequent consequence of youth is inconsistency, and Brighton have demonstrated this in recent weeks. The same team that lost 7-0 at Forest have since won three matches in a row in all competitions.

Fixtures

Bournemouth (H), Fulham (H), City (A), Villa (H), Palace (A), Leicester (H), Brentford (A), West Ham (H), Newcastle (H), Wolves (A), Liverpool (H), Spurs (A)

Predicted finishing position: 8th

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Fulham

Biggest strength

Although Fulham do not keep many clean sheets, their defensive record is solid and they have conceded only 35 Premier League goals this season (the seventh-best record in the league). This is a team that is always competitive and their matches are usually close affairs: since the start of December they have not won or lost a league game by more than two goals.

Biggest weakness

Marco Silva’s side are lacking in firepower. On both goals and expected goals, they rank 12th in the Premier League. This is a thoroughly mid-table output and it feels unlikely that they will have enough attacking class to make a push towards the top five.

Fixtures

Wolves (A), Brighton (A), Spurs (H), Arsenal (A), Liverpool (H), Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Southampton (A), Villa (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), City (H)

Predicted finishing position: 12th

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Brentford

Biggest strength

The goalscoring duo of Bryan Mbeumo (15 league goals) and Yoane Wissa (12 league goals). Brentford are the only team to have two players in double digits for goals this season. Kevin Schade is capable of contributing, too. Brentford are never afraid to attack teams and they have real quality in their front line.

Biggest weakness

Brentford are probably too much fun. Their matches are usually wonderfully entertaining and open contests, but this can also work against them. Thomas Frank’s side have shipped 42 goals in the Premier League this season – only five teams in the division have conceded more.

Fixtures

Everton (H), Villa (H), Bournemouth (A), Newcastle (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Brighton (H), Forest (A), United (H), Ipswich (A), Fulham (H), Wolves (A)

Predicted finishing position: 11th

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Tottenham Hotspur

Biggest strength

Their injured players are coming back. Spurs could quickly look like an entirely different side to the team that has struggled so badly in recent months. The last 10 days have brought positive signs in this regard and, provided there are no more setbacks, Spurs could be strong and rejuvenated for the run-in.

Biggest weakness

Even if Spurs can reunite their best players on the pitch, they are so far behind the pack that it will be extremely difficult for them to make up enough ground in time. At the time of writing, they are 11 points behind fifth-placed Newcastle. There could always be more injuries, too.

Fixtures

City (H), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A), Chelsea (A), Southampton (H), Wolves (A), Forest (H), Liverpool (A), West Ham (A), Palace (H), Villa (A), Brighton (H)

Predicted finishing position: 10th

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