Luka Dončić vs. Mavericks: What to expect from the Lakers star in his first game against Dallas

Three weeks ago, Luka Dončić was formally introduced as a Los Angeles Laker after the Dallas Mavericks dealt him in the most shocking trade in NBA history. Today, the 25-year-old superstar (who turns 26 this week) will face his former team for the first time. Buckle up! Our writers break down the Lakers and Mavs in the aftermath of the trade, and make predictions on what to expect from Luka during his revenge game.

1. On a scale of 1 to 10, rate Luka’s first three weeks as a Laker.

Vincent Goodwill: 8. The rhetoric surrounding Luka’s trade or at least Dallas’ reasoning didn’t come off as flattering to him, as valid as it may be. And it wasn’t until Saturday night where he had a Luka game, against Denver. But going to LA, being introduced to the crowd last and clearly catching all the positive vibes from JJ Redick can make up for all of that. His pairing with LeBron has shown promise thus far, the QB-to-WR moments. Then he was being hunted by the Charlotte Hornets. So … an 8.

Dan Devine: Let’s call it a 7.5 — which, as luck would have it, is the Lakers’ winning percentage since the deal, with six victories in eight tries. Granted, three of those wins came with Dončić working his way back from a calf strain, and one of them came with him resting on the second night of a back-to-back; “3-2 with losses to the Jazz and Hornets” isn’t exactly the stuff that dreams are made of. What Luka did to a Nuggets team that has owned L.A. for the past four years, though, is the stuff that emboldens you to dream a little bigger, darling:

Players who can do that don’t grow on trees. Even with Dončić needing some time to shake off the rust and find his footing (and the range on his jumper) after missing 22 games, the Lakers have outscored opponents by 12.1 points per 100 possessions since his arrival, offering both tantalizing glimpses of what the LeBron-Luka partnership could eventually blossom into and fresh hope that it’s already got a shot to do some real damage in the here and now. Keep that up, and we’ll be bumping this ‘C’ up toward the top of the grading scale in no time.

Tom Haberstroh: 6. I think Dončić would even admit that he hasn’t been himself for most of his short Lakers tenure. Before the Denver eruption, he had nearly more fouls and turnovers than made shots and assists. Some rust is to be expected from the change of scenery and recovery from his calf injury, but Dončić has set such a high bar for himself that I expect brilliance every night.

Morten Stig Jensen: 7, if only for the stat line and the lack of efficiency. But context is needed here. He came in after a long layoff due to injury, and is still rounding himself back into form. While I can hear Nico Harrison laugh at the word “form,” the 32-point, 10-rebound, 7-assist performance against Denver leaves enough optimism for me that this won’t take long.

2. Who has been the biggest beneficiary of the Luka trade?

Devine: LeBron James, let’s not overcomplicate things. The King’s scoring efficiency has spiked while sharing the court with another genius playmaker: 65 points in 80 minutes with Dončić, with 60% of his baskets coming off of an assist (including eight from Luka). His average time of possession, seconds per touch and dribbles per touch have all decreased since Luka’s debut; his usage rate goes down when Luka’s on the court, and his true shooting percentage (which factors in 2-point, 3-point and free-throw accuracy) jumps by 10 percentage points.

With all due respect to Kyrie Irving — who, now that you mention it, has also benefited from the deal, in the sense that he’s become the unquestioned No. 1 option in Dallas and absolutely essential to the Mavericks’ offensive function right before he can exercise his player option and position himself for another lucrative re-up — LeBron hasn’t had a hub-of-the-offense running buddy this capable of easing his burden since, what, 2011 Dwyane Wade? Those Heat teams turned out pretty OK. This Lakers squad just might, too.

Haberstroh: Rob Pelinka. The Lakers should build a statue for him, preferably sitting at a coffeeshop in a leather jacket halfway unzipped from the bottom up. He should never have to buy a coffee again in Los Angeles again.

Jensen: The Lakers as a whole, with Jaxson Hayes coming in at a close second. (I’m guessing you want me to say Max Christie, but I’m not taking the bait!) Even if we’re just four games in, and the Luka Experience has only been fleeting, we’re going to see both wings and bigs — of which the Lakers have few — benefit greatly from a healthy Luka, particularly when he gets to the free-throw line area, where he’s utterly elite at making decisions.

Goodwill: It’s JJ Redick. When he took this job, his fortunes were directly and tied only to the health and wants of LeBron James. There was the drafting of Bronny and the drama surrounding it. Now, this is a new lease for Redick. The Lakers have a post-LeBron plan and clearly the Lakers coach sees Luka as a huge upgrade from Anthony Davis — the moment of telling himself to “stop” and lock in when looking at Luka on the bench and Redick looking downright smitten as he daydreamed possibilities about the future. But at least he has a future and the possibility of a curious present in the meantime.

3. Finish the sentence: The Lakers are ___________.

Haberstroh: Exceptional. They have been and will continue to be the exception to the rule. Teams usually don’t have generational stars seemingly fall into their lap. Unless you’re the Lakers, of course. Whether it’s Luka Dončić, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar or Wilt Chamberlain, the Lakers seem to always find a way to get the big name. None of those all-time greats were drafted by the Lakers and yet, they’ve worn the purple-and-gold in their primes.

Devine: Relevant again. On Feb. 1, the Lakers had outscored opponents by just one-half of one point per 100 possessions for the full season, with a below-average defense and an uninspiring offense. Their chances of contending were the same as they’d been the previous three seasons: Hope LeBron and Anthony Davis are both healthy in springtime; hope the bracket breaks right; hope (and pray, and beg, and plead) that somebody else takes Nikola Jokić out before he sees them.

But hope isn’t a plan — or, at least, not one as elegant and potentially potent as, “We’re going to throw Luka and LeBron at you, and see how you deal with that.” These Lakers aren’t going to be anything close to a favorite in a West topped by a historically dominant Thunder team. But I don’t think anyone’s going to be too thrilled to see them come mid-April, either.

Goodwill: Intriguing. Not just for this year — I felt they would take a step back in the immediate; that’s been wrong thus far — but for their future. The Lakers are forever looking for the next guy, or a supporting figure for the next guy. They can move to the latter now, and prepare for a life when LeBron retires, if he ever does. Life with LeBron and Davis seemed easy to prognosticate: Play-In tournament and, at best, a first-round exit. Maybe they can stretch the shelf life on this mismatched roster, or at least give someone a scare while they figure out what next year looks like.

Jensen: Championship contenders! Assuming of course our favorite Slovenian stays healthy, LeBron’s age suddenly doesn’t show, and they won’t get matched up against teams with a million centers who can abuse their lack of size. Alright, that may not technically describe an actual contender, but I’m going to stubbornly stick with it. When you have Luka Dončić and LeBron James on the same team, we’re entering one of those Stranger Things visions where everything is possible. Will they win the title? Probably not, but I can’t in good conscience exclude them from that conversation.

4. Finish the sentence: The Mavs are ___________.

Jensen: Still wrong for making that trade? Look, I get it. We all get it. Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson. What a trio, right? If only this was 2015, the league would be in for a world of trouble. But it’s a decade later, Davis is already out with an injury, and Thompson looks every bit like a 35-year-old guy who had back-to-back ACL and Achilles injuries. The Mavs would essentially have to win the title for this trade to ever make sense, and that seems … optimistic.

Goodwill: Snake-bitten. If you hate the trade, you can at least see why Nico Harrison thought he could build a team in the present that could contend in the West. Load up on rim protecting, talented bigs and augment it with shot-making and creativity of shot creation on the perimeter. The combination of Davis and Dereck Lively II seems downright scary to consider defensively, but we may never see it because everybody is on the injured list. That prevents us from seeing the vision. I want to see it.

Devine: Waiting. Which, as I understand it, ranks among the hardest parts. The Mavericks deserve credit for staying above .500 since the deal, especially considering they’ve had AD for just one half of one game in that span. But the premise of the trade — the on-court rationale, anyway — was that bringing in Davis to play alongside the center tandem of Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, with PJ Washington at the 3 and a bunch of big mix-and-match options at the 2 next to Kyrie, would make Dallas a gigantic, imposing, defensive meat-grinder of a group to play against … and with Davis, Lively and Gafford all sidelined, we haven’t gotten to see what that version of the team looks like.

Whether that version has any chance of being as good as the Luka-led iteration that, again, went to the Finals eight months ago remains to be seen. But hope springs eternal … even if, as some dude wrote not too long ago, hope in itself isn’t a plan.

Haberstroh: Lottery-bound. Missing the playoffs after reaching the NBA Finals and trading away the face of the franchise would be a tragedy for their fans. The Warriors and Timberwolves look poised to come out of the West logjam with new-found edge, healthier rosters and softer schedules than the one ahead of the Mavs. Maybe the Mavericks pull a rabbit out of the hat, but I don’t see it with their injured bigs.

5. Prediction time! What will Luka put up against the Mavs?

Goodwill: 32-10-6. Nobody does drama like LA. And the Lakers will give Dončić every opportunity to extract early revenge, although the real revenge will come when the Mavericks have to play a road game at home during Luka’s return to Dallas later in the season. But as long as he’s got the wind to keep up with his emotions, he’ll have some wild swings and have his moments.

Jensen: It’s one of those things where he might go for 50, or he’ll brick eight 3-pointers because of built-up energy. Guessing there’s no in-between for this particular game, and frankly, that’s the way it should be. The team shipped you out and spent the following two weeks going on a smear campaign to justify its decision? If that doesn’t deserve a 50-piece, I don’t know what does.

Devine: Dallas ranks 26th in defensive efficiency since the trade; this seems like very bad news against a jilted lover with a flamethrower. Let’s go with 36-9-9 in a Lakers rout — the kind of performance that makes it very, very hard for JJ to remind himself to stop smiling.

Haberstroh: I’ll say 31 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists. That’s his postseason career averages, collectively unmatched by any player in NBA history.