Every year, bounce-back players provide some of the best fantasy baseball draft values. After all, fantasy managers are a reactionary bunch, and they struggle with recency bias when dealing with players who have solid career track records but experienced a performance dip last year.
Ideally, wise managers will target players who have a viable excuse for having had a bad year. Players who were injured last season are fine targets, as long as there is a reasonable expectation that the ailment won’t linger into 2025. And those who were a victim of bad luck while maintaining their skills are also terrific options to consider. Here are seven players who fit into one of those two buckets.
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Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (Yahoo ADP: 109.6)
Bichette got off to a slow start last year before rounding into form (.280 BA, 3 HR) in May. Unfortunately, a calf injury and fractured finger limited him to 15 games after June 15. The shortstop had never previously hit below .290, and he heads into a contract year needing to prove that his plate skills and durability are worth a lucrative contract. Bichette will be just 27 years old on Opening Day, making it much more likely that last year was an aberration than an early career decline.
Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (Yahoo ADP: 187.6)
A disappointing season for Lowe in which his OPS dropped by 142 points was primarily influenced by first half struggles. The power-speed threat looked more like himself after the All-Star break (.262 BA, 5 HR, 17 SB in 62 games) and still has the skills to repeat his 20-homer, 32-steal 2023 season. After all, Lowe ranks among the top 25% of players in average sprint speed and average exit velocity. Improving on his 31.8% strikeout rate from last season will be Lowe’s key to success.
Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies (Yahoo ADP: 242.6)
I had Jones on my 2024 bust list, as I didn’t anticipate him repeating his .401 BABIP and 20-20 season (in 106 games) from the previous year. But I didn’t expect the outfielder to fall so far. He was limited by a back injury to 79 games, and his batted-ball data (88.2 mph average exit velocity, 5.9% barrel rate) experienced major regression. Fantasy managers have fully abandoned Jones, but he still plays half his games at hitter-friendly Coors Field, and at age 26, he is young enough to move past the back woes and return to the 20-20 plateau.
Christopher Morel, Tampa Bay Rays (Yahoo ADP: 247.7)
Morel could make a strong case as baseball’s unluckiest hitter from 2024. After all, he ranked among the top 10 in baseball in terms of gaps between his xBA, xSLG and xwOBA and his actual marks in each category. Morel produced career-best marks last season in walk rate (10.0%) and strikeout rate (26.0%), but his average exit velocity dropped nearly 2 mph to 89.2. The Rays are set to play their home games at a homer-happy venue, which gives Morel the potential to go deep 30 times.
Thairo Estrada, Colorado Rockies (Yahoo ADP: 232.5)
Estrada was viewed as a reliable middle round draft option last season. Fast forward one year, and the infielder is going undrafted in many leagues. Estrada got off to a slow start in 2024 before a wrist injury wiped out most of his summer. Surprisingly, the Giants outrighted him to the minors at the end of August and Estrada chose to go to free agency at the end of the season. He has plenty to prove during his age-29 season, but fortunately he is in the right home park to accentuate his strong ability to make contact. I’ll take the over on 10 homers, 20 steals and a .255 average.
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants (Yahoo ADP: 249.8)
Predicting a player to enjoy a bounceback year during his age-42 season is a bold move, but I’m ready to go out on that limb with this future Hall of Famer. According to Statcast, Verlander was among baseball’s unluckiest pitchers last year, as his 3.78 xERA was 1.70 runs lower than his actual mark. The veteran typically limits walks while living and dying with the long ball, which makes him a great candidate to thrive at power-suppressing Oracle Park. Overall, I expect Verlander to improve on a per-inning basis while we cross our fingers that he can stay healthy at his advanced age.
David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates (Yahoo ADP: 170.4)
Bednar was one of baseball’s best relievers across 2021-23 (2.25 ERA) before falling apart last season (5.77 ERA). His decline was caused by unusual struggles with the long ball and a loss of control skills in the second half. He also missed nearly a month with an oblique strain and wasn’t at his best when he returned. The Pirates did not augment their bullpen this offseason, which leaves Bednar with no real competition for save chances. It’s also worth noting that Bednar’s fastball averaged a career-best 97.3 mph in 2024.
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