Two Saturdays ago, Bubba Cunningham sat on national television saying that Michigan State was close to making the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee’s top 16 teams in an early look at the NCAA tournament bracket. A little over a week later, it is hard to imagine that the Spartans haven’t barged their way into that group.
Michigan State had the best week of any Big Ten team, beating Purdue at home Tuesday and rival Michigan on the road Friday. Add in last week’s road smackdown against Illinois, and the Spartans have won three consecutive games over teams in the top 25 in NET Ranking by an average margin of 12 points. That is a strong stretch.
It feels like this team has shaken off any nerves associated with getting Tom Izzo the all-time Big Ten wins record. With that milestone in the rearview, they can focus on doing what all Izzo teams do: Playing hard-nosed, fundamentally sound basketball on both ends of the floor. If they keep playing this way, they will not be left out of the top 16 come Selection Sunday.
Let’s check in on the current NCAA tournament bracket projections for the Big Ten:
Wisconsin Badgers
Projected seed: 2
This week’s schedule: vs. Washington Tue. (Peacock), at Michigan State Sun.
Wisconsin waxed a good Illinois team by 21 points on Tuesday, which feels more representative of this team than the four-point home overtime loss to Oregon Saturday. It took a season-high 17 turnovers from the Badgers and a deep three from Jackson Shelstad in the final seconds of regulation to hand Wisconsin just its second home loss of the year.
Michigan State Spartans
Projected seed: 4
This week’s schedule: at Maryland Wed., vs. Wisconsin Sun.
Michigan State has climbed back up the seeding list by soundly beating good teams. It has two more opportunities to do that this week against ranked teams in the Terrapins and Badgers. There is no rest for the weary in the Big Ten, but right now, the Spartans are the ones doling out the punishment.
Purdue Boilermakers
Projected seed: 4
This week’s schedule: vs. UCLA Fri.
The Boilermakers need the four days off they will get this week as they have lost four consecutive games. The first three came against the three other highest ranked teams on this list, but Sunday’s 15-point loss at Indiana – which was once thought to be dead in the water – will raise alarm bells.
Michigan Wolverines
Projected seed: 4
This week’s schedule: at Nebraska Mon., vs. Rutgers Thu. (Peacock), vs. Illinois Sun.
It may have been premature to hail Michigan as the Big Ten’s best team. Close wins over Purdue and Ohio State could be attributed to good fortune, and the Spartans dealt their rival a healthy reality check with a 13-point win in Ann Arbor. Now, Michigan faces a packed week against three talented teams.
Maryland Terrapins
Projected seed: 5
This week’s schedule: vs. Michigan State Wed., at Penn State Sat.
Maryland is cruising along coming off two blowout home wins over Iowa and USC. Matchups with the two Michigan teams are the only worrisome games remaining for the Terrapins, who have a shot at a 25-6 record after going 16-17 in 2023-24. There’s no reason they can’t nab a top-four seed themselves.
UCLA Bruins
Projected seed: 7
This week’s schedule: at Purdue Fri.
The Bruins took care of business with a solid home win over Ohio State Sunday, a nice response to dropping a game to Minnesota at Pauley Pavilion. UCLA will hang in every single game because they defend their butts off and dominate the turnover margin. Will that be enough to make deep runs in postseason play?
Oregon Ducks
Projected seed: 8
This week’s schedule: vs. USC Sat.
Oregon responded nicely to that five-game, midseason losing streak, bouncing back to win its last four. Stealing a victory in Madison after trailing by as many as 17 points is a massive resume-builder. Now, the Ducks return to Eugene for what they hope will be straightforward victories over USC and Indiana that propel them into the Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament with momentum.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected seed: 8
This week’s schedule: vs. Iowa Tue., at Michigan Sun.
Last week, I explained why it was difficult to say for certain what this Illinois team was. Well, now it seems clear that the Fighting Illini are a solid team that cannot stand up to the nation’s best teams. Losses to Michigan State by 14, Wisconsin by 21 and Duke by 43 points in their last three cast a pall over this team’s chances of making real noise in March.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected seed: 11
This week’s schedule: at USC Wed.
The Buckeyes have now lost three consecutive games, the worst of which was a 21-point drubbing at the hands of Northwestern in Columbus on Thursday. They proceeded to lose at UCLA Sunday, and now Ohio State might need to win a few Big Ten tournament games in order to make the NCAA field.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected Seed: 11
This week’s schedule: vs. Michigan Mon., vs. Minnesota Sat.
The Cornhuskers played only one game last week, a 17-point loss at a Penn State team that wouldn’t make the conference tournament if the season ended today. So yeah, Nebraska is still hanging out around the bubble. A win in Monday’s bout with the Wolverines would help remedy that situation.
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