Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
NFL conference title odds tend to bring out heightened high-roller interest. Caesars Sports found that out almost immediately this week.
On Monday, a Caesars Palace big bettor plopped $1.3 million on Kansas City Chiefs moneyline -130, for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills. If Kansas City just wins the game — regardless of margin — then the bettor locks down a $1 million win, for a total payout of $2.3 million.
To most of us casual observers, a bet that size is shocking. But not to Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel, especially when considering this specific matchup at this specific time of year.
“It’s no surprise that it’s on the Chiefs. If you look at the precedent the past couple years, the Chiefs have beaten the Bills in this spot,” Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Bills-Chiefs and Commanders-Eagles, as we dive into NFL Conference Championship betting.
When It Matters Most
Since the 2020 regular season, the Bills and Chiefs — and therefore, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — have met eight times. That series is tied 4-4, but as Feazel alluded to, not all wins are created equal.
Buffalo’s four victories all came in the regular season. Conversely, three of Kansas City’s wins came in the playoffs, when it really mattered.
In the 2020-21 AFC Championship Game, K.C. won 38-20 at home.
Then came the fantastic finish in the 2021-22 divisional round, again at Arrowhead Stadium. Allen led the Bills to a touchdown that put them up 36-33 with just 13 seconds left. But Mahomes and the Chiefs quickly responded with a field goal to tie it at 36, and K.C. won 42-36 in overtime.
In last season’s divisional round, the Bills were finally at home vs. the Chiefs. But the result was the same: Kansas City won 27-24.
“These games are always instant classics, and this one probably will be, as well,” Feazel said.
Caesars opened Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Chiefs -1, quickly nudged to -1.5, then Monday went to -2, where the point spread remained as of Wednesday night.
“Outside of that one big bet, it’s probably 50-50 action on this game. You’ve got a lot of Chiefs haters this year,” Feazel said. “Josh Allen is playing his best football, and these are two of the most-bet teams in the league.
“This is certainly gonna be one of the biggest-bet games of the year. And we’ll need the Bills.”
If the most recent outcome matters — which it might not — the Bills and Chiefs met in Week 11 this season, in Buffalo. The Bills led 16-14 at halftime, there was no third-quarter scoring, and Buffalo pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 30-21 victory as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Tom Brady discusses officiating and the Chiefs
Familiar Foes Fight On FOX
Much like the Bills and Chiefs, the Eagles and Commanders are plenty familiar with each other, as NFC East rivals. Philly hosts Washington in the NFC Championship Game at 3 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX.
In Week 11, the Eagles trailed the Commanders 10-6 entering the fourth quarter. But Jalen Hurts & Co. then put up the next 20 points, scoring three touchdowns en route to a 26-16 victory as 4.5-point home favorites.
In Week 16, the Eagles rolled into the fourth quarter with a 27-14 lead at Washington. But Hurts suffered a concussion in the first quarter and missed the rest of the game.
Philadelphia could’ve used him late, as the Commanders rallied for a 36-33 win as 4-point home underdogs.
For this season’s third meeting, Caesars opened the Eagles -5. The first move was actually down to Philadelphia -4.5, but that drew sharp bets on the Eagles.
The spread has since advanced to Philly -6.
“Obviously, the Commanders are coming off a very surprising win vs. the Lions,” Feazel said, alluding to Washington’s 45-31 upset of the No. 1 seed. “Money so far is from people either laying the 6 points with the Eagles or betting the Commanders moneyline.”
So Washington backers — at least among the public betting masses — like the +230 or so odds of the Commanders pulling off another road upset.
A $100 bet on the Commanders moneyline would profit $230, for a $330 total payout.
But one bettor took it much further than that, putting $160,000 on Washington moneyline +228 at Caesars. If the Commanders win Sunday, then the bettor pockets a hefty $364,800 profit, for a $524,800 total payout.
As the weekend nears, that has Caesars’ risk room rooting for what oddsmakers term the Super Bowl middle.
“An Eagles win and a Commanders cover,” Feazel said.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is invested in just one of Sunday’s games: Bills vs. Chiefs.
Much like that million-dollar bettor at Caesars, McKay is taking Kansas City moneyline, though he got a better price at -120. In Week 11, McKay bet the Chiefs +3 on the road vs. the Bills — the aforementioned 30-21 K.C. loss — so he couldn’t resist taking Mahomes & Co. to simply win at home.
“I know everyone has Kansas City fatigue. But I believe getting them at home [at this price] is a decent bet,” McKay said.
Tom Brady on what makes Jayden Daniels so special for the Commanders
Built For The Futures
Of the four remaining teams, there’s only one that Caesars Sports is looking to dodge in Super Bowl championship futures odds.
“The Chiefs are our only liability left, going for the three-peat. They’ve been popular all year,” Feazel said. “The Bills, Eagles and Commanders are all great for us.”
That said, there are varying levels of great.
“The Eagles are our best outcome to win the Super Bowl,” Feazel said.
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
As noted above, Caesars took that massive $1.3 million wager on Chiefs moneyline -130 vs. the Bills. That is far and away the largest reported bet so far on NFL Conference Championship odds.
The second-largest reported bet: $269,931.80 — a rather unusual total, particularly including the 80 cents — on Eagles +170 to win the NFC title. Caesars took that wager in mid-January, after Philly’s 22-10 wild-card win over Green Bay.
If the Eagles win Sunday, then the bettor profits $458,884.06 — yeah, the 6 cents, too — for a total payout of $728,815.86.
And there’s that $160,000 Commanders moneyline +228 wager mentioned above. Other bets of note:
- $100,000 Chiefs +200 to win the AFC (Caesars). A Chiefs win Sunday gives the bettor a $200,000 boost (total payout $300,000).
- $50,000 Eagles +325 to win the NFC (Borgata Sports). The bet was made before Wild Card Weekend, and if it gets there, then the customer profits $162,500 (total payout $212,500). The same customer has $50,000 on Eagles +700 to win the Super Bowl.
- $25,000 Eagles +330 to win the NFC. The bet was made at Caesars prior to Wild Card Weekend. If Philly wins Sunday, then the bettor nets $82,500 (total payout $107,500).
All that money, and we’re not even to the weekend yet. The high rollers will surely continue dialing up the dollars as kickoffs get closer.
But amid all these major wagers, it’s worth reminding: This is sports betting. Gambling. Always keep it reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Enjoy the games!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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