Nothing against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are on an impressive run. But the story of the NFC championship game — and probably the entire NFL season — is Jayden Daniels.
Daniels, the second pick of the NFL Draft who had what is likely the greatest rookie season for a quarterback in league history, will try to do something that has never been done before. If the Washington Commanders win on Sunday, Daniels would become the first rookie quarterback ever to start a Super Bowl. He has had numerous signature moments in a historic rookie season, but making that history would endure for a long time.
The Eagles have their own fantastic stories, starting with Saquon Barkley’s magical season that will go down as one of the best running back seasons in NFL history. But this weekend, the stage belongs to a rookie quarterback trying to lead yet another upset and make some history.
The matchup
No. 6 Washington Commanders (14-5) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
Lincoln Financial Field | Philadelphia
3 p.m. ET
How to watch Commanders at Eagles
This game will be broadcast on Fox and Fox Deportes.
Betting odds
The Eagles are a 6-point favorite at BetMGM. The line opened at Eagles -5 and moved, showing some hesitancy about the Commanders in the betting market. For a Week 11 Thursday night matchup in Philadelphia, the Eagles were a 4.5-point favorite. When the teams met again at Washington in Week 16, the Commanders were a 4-point underdog. The total for the game is 47.5.
X-factor
Somehow, the Commanders have to slow down Saquon Barkley. In the two regular-season meetings, Barkley rushed for 146 and 150 yards against them. Washington probably isn’t holding Barkley under 100 yards. He has hit 100 yards in 11 of his last 13 games. The Commanders gave up the third-most rushing yards and fifth-highest yards per carry in the NFL for the regular season. But they need to find a way to keep Barkley from taking over the game, and it probably starts with their linebackers. Bobby Wagner had another exceptional season. He ranked second among linebackers in run defense grade this season at Pro Football Focus. Frankie Luvu was an expert signing in free agency. He had 10 tackles and two sacks in the first meeting with the Eagles. The Commanders’ top two linebackers are crucial to keeping the Eagles from running all over them. Others like safety Jeremy Chinn will need to step up as well. Barkley is going to get plenty of yards. But Washington’s run defense needs to make sure he doesn’t gash it with multiple big plays. It’s a big ask.
How the Commanders can win
Every week it’s the same answer, and that’s Jayden Daniels. While there is sometimes too much emphasis put on quarterbacks, in the Commanders’ case their success really does revolve around their star rookie. The Commanders aren’t completely devoid of talent, but their roster is clearly much worse than any other team in the NFL’s final four. But they have a special quarterback. Washington turned it over five times in the Week 16 win over the Eagles (clearly they can’t do that again) but still won because Daniels threw five touchdowns. Since the end of September the Eagles have allowed more than 23 points just once, and it was the 36 they allowed to Washington. The Commanders have to play the same efficient offensive football they’ve played most of the season, including converting some key fourth downs that Dan Quinn likes to go for, and hope the defense can make enough plays to give Daniels a chance to win it at the end. That formula has produced a lot of wins for Washington this season.
How the Eagles can win
The Eagles have passed for a net total of 186 passing yards in two playoff games. Last week’s snowstorm played into Philadelphia having just 65 net passing yards, but their lack of a productive passing game still seems impossible for an elite team in this era. However, the Eagles have figured out how they want to play. Saquon Barkley is going to carry the offense while everyone else can catch up on their reading, and an excellent defense will carry them home. If Jalen Hurts’ knee injury, which he suffered in the divisional round, hinders him at all then we’ll see even more of an emphasis on Barkley, if that’s possible. Philly’s approach has been working. The only bad game Philadelphia’s defense has had since September was against the Commanders in Week 16, and while that’s a bit concerning for Sunday’s challenge against Jayden Daniels, assume that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will make adjustments. Philadelphia has gone old school, running the ball and playing defense to get to the NFC championship game. And that will be their agenda as long as they’re alive in this postseason.
Prediction
The Eagles have lost one game since the end of September. That came against the Commanders in Week 16. That game was unusual for Philadelphia, with Jalen Hurts leaving in the first quarter due to a concussion. The Eagles probably still win that game if DeVonta Smith didn’t drop a third-down pass late in the fourth quarter. That allowed Jayden Daniels to put together a game-winning drive and throw his fifth touchdown of the game with six seconds left to win it. The Commanders led at Philadelphia in the fourth quarter of a Week 11 game too, but the Eagles pulled away. Washington can compete with Philadelphia because it is well-coached and has a dangerous quarterback. Ask the Detroit Lions. The Eagles have the better team, with more talent up and down the roster and a 14-1 record since Week 4. Of their three losses, they allowed game-winning touchdowns with 34 seconds left in one (vs. Atlanta in Week 2) and six seconds left in another. That level of dominance should eventually take over the NFC title game. But it won’t be easy. Philadelphia 24, Washington 21
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