A friend asked me for advice on a few players to add to his fantasy basketball team. He plays in a 12-team H2H points league, and based on his “TLDR” response, I should’ve just given him a name rather than analyzing each player and their current environment.
It was a good reminder that my process isn’t everyone’s, but for those who may want to understand my strategy for hitting waivers in points leagues, here are several tips that inform my decisions.
1. Riding the Hot Hand — Player Performance Trends
This one’s obvious, but it needs to be said. If a player is lighting it up recently, pay attention. Maybe someone’s been dropping 20 points a game out of nowhere or collecting a ton of other counting stats. Hot streaks matter in points leagues because the scoring system doesn’t penalize inefficiency beyond turnovers.
For example, Cole Anthony (26% rostered) has been a top 80 player over the last two weeks, averaging 33 fantasy points per game. Anytime a player averages 30 fantasy points on waivers for over a few games, it’s time to scoop them up. Kel’El Ware (37% rostered) is another example of a player playing on a must-roster level recently.
If a guy’s on fire and you wait until their stats hit Reddit or X, you’ll already be too late.
2. Understanding the Path to Consistent Playing Time
Minutes played is one of those “duh” stats, but it’s necessary to generate fantasy points while serving as a foundational anecdote for establishing a player’s baseline. If someone’s suddenly logging starter-level minutes, they’re more likely to get fantasy stats simply because they’re on the floor more.
Injuries to teammates, rotations switching up or coaches benching underperformers can open up opportunities.
Imagine this scenario — your starting center hurts his foot, and now the backup big man gets 30 minutes a night (like Daniel Gafford). You’re leaving points for your opponents if you’re not swooping in to grab that guy.
Don’t sleep on monitoring rotations, either. Coaches might move someone into the starting lineup who instantly benefits from being surrounded by better players (like Nick Richards). Even if they’re just a role player, getting consistent minutes is generally a positive signal for the likelihood of tallying fantasy points.
3. Fantasy Points Per Minute (FPPM) — The Secret Sauce
FPPM is the first and only advanced stat I’ll introduce here because I’ve found it helpful for DFS, which has a scoring system similar to Yahoo points leagues. Fantasy points per minute (FPPM) is an excellent measure of a player’s efficiency per minute. If someone is averaging near 1.0 fantasy points per minute, that’s a strong indication that they could exceed their typical output with any boost in minutes.
For example, say a bench player only gets 15-20 minutes a game but averages 1.2 FPPM. Suddenly, an injury gives them 25-28 minutes. Do the math. That’s a potential 30-34 fantasy points (see: Tari Eason). Even if their actual scoring doesn’t pop off, they’ll rack up value just by staying active on the court.
Consider FPPM as a hidden gem indicator — a clever way to uncover value in players who might initially seem just “meh.” You can find FPPM data with Fantasy Labs.
4. Game Count Matters – Look at the Upcoming Schedule
More games increase your chance of getting more total fantasy points. Points league math doesn’t get easier than this. If you’re eyeing two potential players on the wire, always check their upcoming schedules first.
Who’s playing four games next week versus someone with just two? Grab the guy with four games because one transaction can lead to multiple games’ worth of fantasy production.
I always try to win the volume game in H2H because even if you whiff on a streamer or two in your matchup, you’ll have an edge with the additional games.
5. Prioritize the Multi-Category Players Over The Chuckers
Not all points are created equal. Someone might drop 20 points, but you could leave value on the table if they’re not doing anything else (see: Tim Hardaway Jr.) You should be hunting for a guy who can give you a bit of everything — points, rebounds, assists, steals, you name it. These all rack up in points leagues and every little bit counts. Remember not to get hung up on FG% and FT% because that’s not part of the grading criteria in points leagues.
Players like this can be unicorns on the waiver wire (Cason Wallace), but they do pop up more often than it seems. Even if you’re not getting a monster scorer, players who can provide well-rounded stat lines are just as valuable.
6. Game Script is Your Friend — Matchup Favorability
Here’s where you can get nerdy. I use FantasyPros and Hashtag Basketball’s free Defensive vs. Position tool to see if there are any exploitable matchups on a slate. Matchups matter when considering waiver options. Are they playing a defense that leaks points like a broken faucet? Is it against a team that pushes the pace, meaning extra possessions for everyone involved? These are all reasonable questions to consider when evaluating which players to stream.
Avoid plugging in someone going against top defenders or slow-paced squads that turn games into a slog. No one wants to be stuck watching their player dribble out the shot clock for a contested step-back while their fantasy score is stuck at “3” for half the game.
A Few More Nuggets of Wisdom
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Don’t get attached to names. Just because it’s a former All-Star who’s on the wire doesn’t mean they’ll actually help you. Use logic, not nostalgia.
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Stay active. Waiver wire success is all about speed. It’s Week 13 — forget “waiting and seeing” — you need to act like your league is the NBA trade deadline.
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Be okay with taking risks. Some pickups will flop. Move on.
Remember, the waiver wire can make or break your season. You won’t draft a perfect team, but stay in the know, watch trends and make informed pickups. That turns you from a middle-of-the-pack player into a contender.
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