Football 301 Playbook: Players who will decide the NFC, AFC champions (other than the obvious ones)

The quarterbacks and other stars, like Saquon Barkley and Travis Kelce, are sure to grab much of the attention as the NFL has its final four weekend in Kansas City and Philadelphia. For this week’s Football 301 Playbook, we are going to put a spotlight on some of the character actors for this weekend’s theater. Linemen, rookies, a fullback, a slot defender. Whether it’s good or bad, these players have the potential to swing the game and steal the show (for better or worse).

Commanders vs. Eagles

The absence of linebacker Nakobe Dean was felt by the Eagles’ defense against the Rams last Sunday. The Rams’ use of backfield eye candy had backup Oren Burks in hell when defending the run.

While the Commanders’ method of attack is wildly different from the Rams, there are still plenty of ways for the Commanders to pick at Burks. Whether it’s their use of tempo (which created opportunities last week against the Lions) or their run game that uses QB Jayden Daniels (or the threat of using Daniels), there are paths for the Commanders to highlight No. 42 for Philadelphia and figure out ways to get Burks to go every which way.

Burks has played positive snaps for teams in the past, but the Commanders are surely going to find out ways to make him a focal point of their game plan.

On the bright side for the Eagles, the rest of their defensive spine is stout. Zack Baun deservedly was an All-Pro this year and his ability to impact the game from multiple spots is entertaining to watch because of how unique of a player he is and how defensive coordinator Vic Fangio deploys him.

There are other needle-moving players along the Eagles’ defensive spine. Jalen Carter always has a chance to take over a game and his agility disrupted the Rams’ protection and won the Eagles their NFC divisional-round game.

Milton Williams also looks like a blossoming star (or at least a good starter) who has had the definition of a CONTRACT YEAR, generating the second-highest pressure rate among defensive tackles this season, per NextGenStats.

Jordan Davis has also been out there for the Eagles. One of my favorite stats from divisional-round weekend was that Davis moved an average of 5.9 yards per play against the Rams. No other defensive lineman was below 9.

But, I’m not using this section of the article to say look at a star defensive tackle like Carter or potential free-agent payday winner in Williams. It’s more about what’s going on the other side of the ball.

While the Commanders’ offensive line has been one of the most pleasant surprises (along with the rest of the team) of the entire NFL season, starting right guard Sam Cosmi unfortunately suffered an ACL injury in the the divisional-round upset over the Detroit Lions. Trent Scott replaced Cosmi and got the job done, but the Commanders now have a backup guard going against one of the most disruptive young defenders in football and another defensive lineman who might be pushing for $20 million a season contract soon. The Commanders’ high-tempo offense and Daniels’ excellent movement do a lot to help the offensive line, but Scott’s ability to hold up for 60 snaps against tough matchups is going to be huge for this game and to avoid a recreation of this picture:

The Eagles also have one of, if not the, best offensive lines in football. It includes a star offensive tackle pairing, a strong left guard in Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens doing his best Jason Kelce impression, and reclamation project Mekhi Becton playing the best ball of his career after offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland moved him to right guard.

While the Eagles’ offensive line has been a huge reason for Saquon Barkley’s big season and the Eagles’ overall offensive success (this season and in previous ones, too), the two new faces on their line had their blemishes against the Rams this past weekend. Jurgens was vulnerable to Rams slanting across his face and Becton missed a few protection assignments against the blitz. The strength of the Commanders’ defense is along their front, especially in their interior. Jonathan Allen was constantly pressuring Jared Goff while Daron Payne and Dorance Armstrong had their moments creating edginess on the inside of the pocket. This could be more of a fair fight, at least on the inside, than it would seem at first glance. Becton and Jurgens are the new faces, which makes them by default the players defenses will focus on going after, and even though both have played well this season, this is the cleanest and most direct path for the Commanders’ defense to disrupt Jalen Hurts and make every Eagles pass play an adventure.

Both teams also feature standout rookie cornerbacks who will be tasked with tough assignments. Eagles rookie Quinyon Mitchell has played well even against the league’s better receivers, but got burnt by Washington WR Terry McLaurin on a touchdown after overplaying McLaurin’s release the second time these two teams played. The Eagles made it hard for McLaurin to get going in the first matchup (one reception for 10 yards on two targets), but that big touchdown will surely be on Mitchell’s mind. How Mitchell performs against McLaurin will potentially make Daniels look elsewhere for his big plays (Daniels loves to throw outside and ranks second in yards per attempt on throws outside the numbers, per NextGenStats), which can keep the hyper-efficient Commanders off schedule.

On the other side is rookie cornerback Mike Sainristil, whose move to the outside in Week 8 helped shore up the Commanders’ passing defense. His beautiful interception last week in the end zone before the half was an exclamation point on the move.

Marshon Lattimore battled A.J. Brown for most of the day in these teams’ second matchup this season, but Sainristil will still have opportunities against Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside. Hurts, like Daniels, also loves to throw the ball on the outside. Look for how Sainristil holds up in his battles against Smith and Brown during the onslaught of outside stop routes and go balls from Hurts.

Bills vs. Chiefs

One of the strengths of the Bills’ offense is it can be versatile with its personnel groupings and trot out a smorgasbord of different looks. One of those looks is putting fullback Reggie Gilliam on the field and in the backfield.

Gilliam’s uptick in snaps as the weather gets colder has essentially become an annual tradition in Buffalo. He played 49 total snaps before the Bills’ Week 12 bye. Nine of them came against the Chiefs in Week 11, when Gilliam was primarily used as another tight end. While this speaks to the usefulness of Gilliam’s ability to line up across the formation, I am very curious if the Bills will tap into more true two-back looks and use true I-formation runs to move the ball on the ground. The Bills prefer single-back looks with their TEs in a wing position next to the tackles, but the Texans used two-back looks to great success against the Chiefs in the divisional round, including on Joe Mixon’s rushing score.

The Texans, with the worst rushing attack in the NFL this season, ran the ball 10 times for 52 yards and a 60% rushing success rate against the Chiefs last week. But the Bills are much better running the ball. And the Chiefs have been susceptible on the ground all season to two-back looks, ranking 22nd in rushing success rate and 25th in EPA against 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) run plays.

While the Bills don’t exactly need tips to get their run game going (and if they really have issues they can just spam the Josh Allen button again), but I wonder if a two-back change-up featuring Gilliam will be a way to keep the Chiefs’ defense and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo on their toes.

A more positive development for the Chiefs in the divisional round was getting cornerback Jaylen Watson back from injury. Watson rotated in and out of the lineup but ended up playing more snaps (40) than starting cornerback Nazeeh Johnson on Saturday. While both will still be on the field plenty with the Chiefs’ use of dime (six DBs) personnel, and Trent McDuffie is the true star of this position room, Watson is still an improvement over Johnson on the outside. That’s from an eye test perspective and a statistical sense.

Watson has allowed fewer yards per target than Johnson (6.1 vs. 8.9), EPA per target (-.29 vs. .28, negative is good for defense) as the closest defender to the target, and also made more plays on the ball despite fewer snaps. Watson has recorded seven passes defended and a 24.1% HAWK rate (passes defended and interceptions divided by targets defended) this season. Johnson had three and a rate of 7%.

Watson was missing in Week 11 during these teams’ first matchup this season, and Johnson ended up eating targets and yards from the Bills. Johnson allowed five targets, four receptions, 74 yards, one TD and a perfect passer rating (158.3) as the closest coverage defender in that game.

Watson isn’t exactly Darrelle Revis, but there’s only improvement from here.

Another part of the Chiefs’ coverage that has been a season-long weakness is targets to the slot, which is exactly where Khalil Shakir likes to make a living for the BIlls (not to mention the Bills TEs who operate in the same areas). After Watson’s injury, the Chiefs moved McDuffie to the outside from the slot. And while McDuffie has been superb on the outside this season, his replacement in the slot, Chamarri Conner, hasn’t been quite up to snuff. Some of this is because of the less-than-advantageous positions he gets put in by Spagnuolo’s aggressive blitz looks, where defenders have to hide looks and rally to their coverage responsibilities. But it still has been an area that offenses can get after.

The Chiefs allowed the highest success rate to slot targets this season and allowed the eighth-most EPA per dropback, too (they also forced a league-high seven INTs on slot targets. Those crazy Spagnuolo looks have a benefit!). Shakir was the leading receiver in Week 11, but it doesn’t look like the Chiefs are in any hurry to replace Conner in the middle of their defense. It’s all about mitigating weaknesses during the playoffs, and the Chiefs are betting Conner can hold up against the onslaught of flats, screens and quick outs.

The defensive backfield isn’t all clear sailing on the other side, either. Starting Bills safety Taylor Rapp suffered a hip injury against the Ravens in the divisional round and missed Wednesday’s practice. While on/off splits can be noisy, whenever Rapp has been absent from the field for the Bills this season, things have gotten dicey on the backend of Buffalo’s defense. On the 350 plays this season without Rapp, the Bills ranked dead last in yards per play allowed (6.1), EPA allowed per dropback (-.25) and explosive run rate allowed (11%, remember why they’re called safeties!) and also ranked 30th in dropback success rate allowed.

The Chiefs’ offense this season might be a flurry of 4-yard gains, so explosive runs might not be the biggest fear this weekend (the Chiefs had three runs of 10 or more yards last week which was, funnily enough, a season high for them), but it’s still scary to have a potential gap on the back end against Patrick frickin’ Mahomes. Buffalo’s defensive staff has shown the Bills can tailor their game plans quite well and Rapp still might play. But rookie safety Cole Bishop could be asked to step up and hold the fort in the biggest game of the season against that QB.

Chiefs left guard Michael Caliendo got the nod last week with Joe Thuney staying out at left tackle. The Texans’ defensive line had its ears pinned back the entire day, and Caliendo had an up-and-down game (seven QB pressures allowed) but avoided real catastrophes.

While Thuney will have a bit of an easier go-around Sunday, Caliendo is going to have his hands full again going against Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones. Look for the Chiefs to keep the run game mostly to the right.