Before the penultimate matchday of the league phase of the Champions League, the reigning English, Spanish and French champions are all at risk of being automatically eliminated.
When Manchester City visit Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid host Salzburg on Wednesday (both 8pm GMT), all three heavyweights of the competition know victory would make the final matchday a significantly more comfortable proposition.
The new 36-team single-league format of the Champions League means teams must finish between ninth and 24th to earn a phase in the knockout phase play-offs, while automatic progression as one of the top eight teams is not out of the question for the three sides.
101GreatGoals.com takes a look at how close each of the established contenders are to being knocked out and the task ahead of them in their final two matches of this stage.
Man City: Peril in Paris?
Seven points in their first three games put City on course to advance automatically, only for their subsequent form to reflect their surprising domestic travails since November – by far the worst of Pep Guardiola’s almost all-conquering reign.
Tame defeats at Sporting and Juventus came either side of a 3-3 draw at home to Feyenoord that was memorable for the wrong reasons, with the 2022/23 champions spurning a 3-0 lead after the 74th minute.
That has left them a point above the elimination places, albeit with a goal difference at least four superior to any of the teams in the bottom eight.
With PSG unbeaten at home domestically this season and in even greater need of a positive result, a point for City might be welcome and would almost certainly leave their fate in their hands when they host a Club Brugge side currently two points above them on January 29 (8pm).
Victory would put them in a stronger position to finish between ninth and 16th and be seeded for the play-off draw. Only two wins would give them a chance of automatically going through.
City were last knocked out during the initial stage in the 2012/13 season, when they drew all of their home games and lost all three away in a group also containing Ajax, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Manager Roberto Mancini left at the end of the campaign.
Guardiola, who won the competition in 2009 and 2011 with Barcelona, has always reached the knockout stage during his 17 years as a manager with the Spanish club, Bayern Munich and City.
The Spaniard’s shortest run in the competition as a coach came in his first season at Etihad Stadium in 2016/17, losing by the now-abolished away goals rule after a 6-6 draw on aggregate with Monaco in the round of 16.
PSG: In the elimination places
Runners-up in 2019/20 and semi-finalists in two of the last four seasons, Paris are in the most precarious position of the three titans before Matchday 7, ensconced in the highest elimination place by a point.
Drawing may not be enough to lift them out of the elimination spots. A point would lift them above Dinamo Zagreb, who are immediately above them, if the Croatian club lose at Arsenal on Wednesday (8pm), but Stuttgart, who are level on points with PSG, will expect to win on Tuesday (8pm) at a Slovan Bratislava side still seeking their first point.
PSG are on an eight-match winning run but have not met opponents as potentially dangerous as City along the way. They will be hoping to save their best for last, having followed up a European run of one point from four games with a 3-0 win at Salzburg on Matchday 6.
Defeat would ramp up the pressure before PSG head to Stuttgart on January 29 (8pm), when they will take on opponents who have started the year with three consecutive wins to move fourth in the Bundesliga.
Paris have suffered several underwhelming campaigns – they were knocked out in the round of 16 in 2021/22 and 2022/23 despite having Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar among their ranks – but have progressed from the initial phase on each occasion during their current 12 consecutive years of participation.
The last time they fell at the first hurdle in the competition was in 2004/05, when manager Vahid Halilhodzic was replaced by Laurent Fournier in February.
Current manager Luis Enrique has never been eliminated at the first stage when he has coached in the Champions League, winning the title in his first season in charge of Barcelona in 2014/15.
The 54-year-old has guided Paris nine points clear as part of an 18-game unbeaten start in this season’s Ligue 1, although they had to come from behind to win 2-1 at Lens on Saturday.
“I’m very happy with the victory,” the former Spain boss said afterwards, describing PSG as “in a good dynamic” and carrying “a lot of hope” for the Champions League.
Real Madrid: Holders under threat
Along with City, Madrid were the only team to win all six of their group stage matches on their way to extending their own record by winning the Champions League for the 15th time in 2023/24.
An exit this early seems unthinkable for the dominant force in the competition, but defeats at Lille and Liverpool and a home loss to Milan mean Madrid are two points above the elimination places.
At home on Wednesday (8pm) to a Salzburg side with five defeats and one win, Madrid will be strong favourites to finish the matchday looking upwards – but an end to their two-match winning run in all competitions could put them in need of a result a week later (8pm) at Brest, who are currently in the automatic knockout stage places.
Even the prospect of a play-off would be a surprise for a squad containing the likes of Vinicius Jr, Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham, not least because Madrid have made at least the semi-finals in 14 of the last 16 seasons.
They have never been knocked out at the first opportunity in 70 years of involvement, although they exited in the round of 16 in 2018/19, sacking two managers during their first season after the departure of all-time Champions League top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo.
They were knocked out at the same stage the following season, losing both legs of their round of 16 tie 2-1 to City under Zinedine Zidane.
Manager Carlo Ancelotti has won the Champions League twice as a coach with Milan and three times as Madrid boss, but the most successful boss in the history of the competition has been knocked out in the group stage three times.
Ancelotti’s Parma only lost one of their six matches but were still eliminated in 1997/98, when second-placed sides went out. The Italian then finished bottom of a group with Juventus in 2000/01 and third with Napoli in 2018/19.
When are the Champions League knockout phase play-offs?
Teams finishing between the top and bottom eight will enter two-legged knockout phase play-offs ties.
The first legs will take place on February 11 and 12, followed by the return matches a week later. The draw to decide the ties will be held on January 31.
When is the Champions League round of 16?
The top eight sides and the play-off winners will take part in round of 16 first-leg matches on March 4 and 5, followed by the second legs a week later.
The draw for the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will take place on February 21.
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