Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The Detroit Lions have built themselves into a darling of the public betting masses.
That’ll happen when you go 37-11 straight up (SU) and 35-11-1 against the spread in a 47-game span, dating to November 2022.
This season, Detroit was 15-2 SU and an NFL-best 12-4-1 ATS. So, for the Lions’ playoff opener vs. the Washington Commanders, the public was all over the Lions — on the spread, and in moneyline parlays and teasers.
It was a recipe for success … until it wasn’t.
Washington, a 9-point underdog, stunned Detroit 45-31 Saturday night on FOX. That spoiled the weekend for recreational bettors and locked in a big win for the sportsbooks.
“As it turns out, when a 9-point underdog wins outright in the playoffs, it’s a very good thing. Our traders haven’t been this happy since Tom Brady retired,” Prime Sportsbooks’ Joe Brennan Jr. said.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL divisional-round betting.
In Command
Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin connected on a 58-yard touchdown pass midway through the second quarter, giving the Commanders a 17-14 lead. Washington never trailed again and in fact, led by double digits at multiple junctures, including almost the entire fourth quarter.
It was a shocking result for the public and a welcome relief for bookmakers, who’ve generally gotten beat up by favorites winning/moneyline parlays since October.
“That was a terrific result for us. The Lions’ loss made the whole weekend much more comfortable,” said John Murray, vice president of The SuperBook. “It broke up a lot of parlays and teasers. We did very well.”
Added South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews: “Between teasers and moneyline parlays, bettors figured the Lions were a gimme.”
Fouled-Up Futures
As much as the oddsmakers did well on the Commanders-Lions game itself, they perhaps did even better by eliminating major Super Bowl liability. At BetMGM, the Lions attracted more bets and more money than any other team in the Super Bowl odds market.
“It’s the outcome we needed all season. We needed to get the Lions beat at some point, preferably before the Super Bowl, to get rid of our liability,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “So the loss was massive in canceling that out, and then also ruining all of the favorite [moneyline] parlays with the Chiefs, Lions, Eagles and Ohio State.”
Among the wagers BetMGM took on the Lions: a $20,000 bet at +1200 to win the Super Bowl. That bet alone would’ve paid out $360,000 for a Detroit championship.
BetMGM Nevada was a microcosm of the sportsbook’s national market. So sportsbooks up and down the Las Vegas Strip welcomed Detroit’s ouster.
“It is a huge relief to get Lions liability off the futures book. They were by far the biggest loser for us in Super Bowl futures,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
WSH-DET: ‘NFL on FOX’ crew breaks down divisional round upset
Every ‘Dog Has Its Day
For those keeping score this weekend, while underdogs went 2-2 SU, they went 4-0 ATS. The Houston Texans lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 23-14, but Houston covered after closing as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday.
And the Texans covered in a most unorthodox way. With 15 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, K.C. led 23-12, but faced fourth-and-15 at its own 18-yard line.
Rather than risk a blocked punt, Chiefs punter Matt Araiza took the snap and ran into and out of the end zone, intentionally taking a safety to make it 23-14.
Then, as is well-documented above, the Commanders won outright as 9-point ‘dogs.
In Sunday’s early game, the Los Angeles Rams saw their furious late rally from a 28-15 deficit fall just short vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. L.A. was down 28-22 and in the red zone with a chance to win it, but turned it over on downs with 31 seconds remaining.
However, the Rams covered as 7-point underdogs.
Then the Buffalo Bills, who were 1.5-point home underdogs, held off the Baltimore Ravens 27-25.
All that noted, DraftKings Sportsbook — like everyone else — got what it wanted from the Commanders. And on Sunday, DraftKings got both preferred results. DK’s Julian Edlow relayed this comment from the risk room prior to Sunday’s two matchups:
“From both a game and futures perspective, the book is rooting for Philadelphia and Buffalo.”
Philadelphia Eagles barely survive against L.A. Rams
A Numbers Game
Although the bookmakers generally did well this weekend, the way a couple of final scores fell was rather ideal for a lot of point-spread bettors. The Chiefs winning by nine points meant every bettor who took Houston +9.5 got paid, and every bettor who took the Chiefs -8/-8.5 got paid.
But the line was at Chiefs -9 for a significant part of the day on Saturday. For any NFL game, the bulk of tickets and money usually comes in on game day. Any bettor who took either Chiefs -9 or Texans +9 got a push and a refund for their bet.
And again, the reason the game ended with a 9-point margin was because of an intentional safety.
Likewise, the Eagles’ 28-22 victory, a 6-point margin, wasn’t good for sportsbook risk rooms. Rams bettors at +6.5/+7 got paid, and anyone who had Eagles -6/Rams +6 got a refund.
“The Eagles game was not what we wanted. That game landing on 6 a day after the Chiefs landed on 9 had us shaking our heads,” The SuperBook’s Murray said. “Plus, the total went Over. What can you do? Not what we wanted to see.”
Plus, there were teaser ramifications: 6-point teasers either way — taking Philly from -6 down to pick ‘em or L.A. from +6 to +12 — were all winners.
Said Prime Sportsbook’s Brennan: “Buffalo’s win was OK for us. But it didn’t really do much to dig us out of the hole we were in after the Philly game landed on 6, especially when we’re paying both sides of teasers.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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