A fumble changed everything for the Houston Texans in last week’s wild-card playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Just before the two-minute warning in the second quarter, quarterback C.J. Stroud let the snapped football slip through his hands on third-and-long. But he tracked the ball down, and rolling toward the sideline, with several Chargers defenders on his tail, Stroud managed to complete a 34-yard pass to Xavier Hutchinson in the middle of the field.
The improbable play set up the Texans’ first touchdown of the game, giving them a lead they never relinquished in the 32-12 victory.
“Those are the type of plays that change momentum,” Stroud said postgame, “and a team can rally around plays like that.”
When the Texans face the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round Saturday, they’ll need those kinds of plays — and much more. They’ll need their offense to rise to the occasion.
The expectation is that DeMeco Ryans’ defense will meet the moment. After all, Houston picked off Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert four times (including a pick-six) and pressured him on 50% of his dropbacks in the wild-card round, according to Next Gen Stats. It was a continuation of what the Texans showed defensively during the regular season, when they ranked third in defensive DVOA, according to FTN Data.
But on the other side of the ball, no one really knows what to expect from Houston’s inconsistent offense.
“It fueled us for real,” Stroud said of the defense against the Chargers. “That’s one thing that’s not good, when the defense keeps getting stops and we’re doing whatever with the ball, not moving it. … It was good for us to have that 99-yard drive [in the second quarter].”
Stroud didn’t meet the expectations in 2024 that his brilliant rookie season set, though his surrounding cast played a role in his regression. Wide receiver injuries, offensive-line woes, execution struggles and coordinator Bobby Slowik’s at-times questionable playcalling have all factored into an offense that ranked 19th in scoring (21.9 points per game) and 26th in offensive DVOA during the regular season, per FTN.
Last week, Houston’s 32 points and 429 yards of offense overshadowed the fact that it had three giveaways. The Texans won’t get away with that against the Chiefs, who beat Houston in Week 16. The Texans had two turnovers in that game.
In the rematch against Kansas City, Houston will need to get Stroud and the passing attack going early.
As great as the Chiefs defense is, it’s exploitable in the pass game. Kansas City during the regular season ranked around league average against the pass — 18th in total pass defense (218.8 passing yards allowed per game) and tied for 16th in passing EPA per play allowed (minus-.02).
Kansas City had the third-worst passing defense in the first quarter during the regular season, allowing an average of 57.4 passing yards in the period, according to Next Gen Stats. The Chiefs gave up 7.7 yards per pass attempt, tied for second-worst, and sat sixth-worst in passing EPA allowed per play in the period (plus-.09), according to Next Gen Stats.
In short, that represents an opportunity for the Texans, who ranked sixth in passing yards per game in the first quarter (56.4), and tied for 11th in passing EPA per play (plus-.01) and passing touchdowns in the period (5), per NGS. If Houston can get a lead early, that could allow its dominant pass rush to get after Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs offense that would be forced to depend on the air late.
Despite the loss in the Week 16 matchup, the Texans pressured Mahomes on 35.6% of his dropbacks in the game, the sixth-highest rate he faced all season. They ranked second in pressure rate for the season at 37.8%, according to NGS.
“I know a lot of praise goes to our edge rushers with Will [Anderson Jr.] and Danielle [Hunter], but a lot of those things that they are able to do is set up by the games on the inside,” Ryans said after the Chargers game. “So, the way those guys continue to work together and feed off of each other, that’ll be important to our success moving forward.”
Against the Chiefs, the Texans will look to punch their ticket to the AFC Championship Game for the first time in franchise history.
“We understand what’s in front of us,” Ryans said Monday. “We know it’s a tough, tough team to beat. It’s going to take everything that we have. It’s going to take all four quarters. Similar to our last game, we just have to stay the course, remain persistent throughout the game, and find a way to win in those critical moments.”
And not just on defense.
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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