Roki Sasaki’s free agency: What you need to know as the Japanese star nears an MLB decision

One of the most highly anticipated and unique free agencies in Major League Baseball history is nearing its conclusion this week. Roki Sasaki, a 23-year-old, right-handed pitcher whose generational talent has been revered in his native Japan since he was a teenager, will soon decide where he will begin his big-league career.

A process that began in earnest when his NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, posted him on Dec. 10 has gradually unfolded over the past month, with the entire baseball industry eagerly awaiting his decision and the potential fallout. With his window to sign officially opening Wednesday and extending through Jan. 23, Sasaki has reportedly narrowed the field to three finalists: the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays.

If you haven’t been tracking each and every plot point of Sasaki’s free agency along the way, don’t fret — it’s not too late to get caught up and prepare for his entrance into the MLB universe as one of the most intriguing characters of the upcoming season. Here’s everything you need to know about how we got to this point and how things might transpire from here.

Who is Roki Sasaki?

Sasaki burst on the scene as a standout prep pitcher, one who broke the record for fastball velocity by a Japanese high school arm previously held by Shohei Ohtani. MLB teams were interested in signing him directly out of high school, but Sasaki opted to enter the NPB Draft and start his professional career in Japan. He made an immediate impact with the Marines, excelling as a rookie in 2021 and throwing a 19-strikeout perfect game as a 20-year-old in 2022.

After pitching for Samurai Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Sasaki achieved otherworldly levels of dominance in his third NPB season: In 91 innings across 15 starts, he struck out 135 batters and posted a 1.78 ERA with a 61% ground-ball rate. He wasn’t quite as good in 2024, in what turned out to be his final year with the Marines, but he showcased more than enough to have big-league clubs enthused about the possibility of pursuing him as a free agent.

While Sasaki’s high-end velocity is nearly unrivaled among starting pitchers at any level of professional baseball, it’s not the only thing that makes him different. His splitter is already regarded as one of the most devastating off-speed pitches on the planet, and his slider has made huge strides over the past year. He has also demonstrated advanced control for a pitcher his age, especially one who throws as hard as he does.

All that said, Sasaki is far from a finished product. Injuries and careful management of his innings have limited him to just under 400 innings across his four seasons in NPB. Moving forward, he has a lot to prove in terms of durability and workload. His arsenal, as high-powered as it is, will need refining against the best hitters in the world, and his command will need to progress in a league in which it won’t be quite as easy to overpower opponents with sheer velocity. But from a pure talent perspective, exceptionally few can match what Sasaki offers, which is why his free agency is such a big deal.

What makes Sasaki’s free agency unique?

Had Sasaki waited until he was 25 to make the jump to MLB, he would’ve been considered a traditional free agent, rather than an international amateur who can sign only a minor-league contract with a signing bonus attached.

Waiting until turning 25 is what Yoshinobu Yamamoto did. A year ago, he was posted by the Orix Buffaloes after seven celebrated seasons in NPB, and he secured an astonishing $325 million deal with the Dodgers, a reflection of both his immense talent and the rare opportunity to sign a player of his caliber at such a young age. But rather than pitch in NPB for another two seasons and then seek a deal the magnitude of Yamamoto’s, Sasaki is following the path previously charted by Ohtani, who made a similar decision to expedite his journey to MLB in 2017. Like Sasaki now, Ohtani’s earning potential at the time was capped by international bonus pool restrictions. He ultimately received a $2.3 million bonus from the Angels and was under contract for six seasons, the first three at league minimum and three more under the arbitration system.

Sasaki is expected to receive a larger bonus than Ohtani did, but it likely won’t be much bigger. Major-league clubs have a designated amount they can spend each year on international amateur players, with pools ranging from roughly $5 million to $7 million, plus the ability to trade for more space up to closer to $10M. Teams can opt to use this money in different ways. Some devote a large portion of their pool to one or two elite players at the top of the class, while others spread it among a wider collection of six-figure bonuses. While the signing period does not officially open until Wednesday, most deals are agreed upon well in advance. As such, teams hoping to sign Sasaki might need to renegotiate prior deals in order to ensure they have enough pool money to offer Sasaki.

It remains to be seen whether a club will use its entire pool or close to it on Sasaki — or if they’d need to. Sasaki’s decision to come to MLB now suggests that he isn’t prioritizing getting every last dollar at this stage. But whatever the number ends up being, it’s a fraction of what Sasaki’s sensational ability would be worth on an uncapped open market — especially compared to the other top international amateur players, the vast majority of whom are teenagers who are years away from contributing at the big-league level, to say nothing of the potential variance on their developmental path to get there. Sasaki, while still in need of some development, could make an immediate impact in the major leagues — and is available for an unfathomably low cost not just for 2024 but also for five seasons beyond it. It’s a bargain unlike anything we’ve ever seen in the sport, outside of Ohtani.

Which teams are in the running to sign Sasaki?

Sasaki’s unique situation began with a much wider range of teams involved than is typical for an elite free agent, but we’ve gained clarity over the past month about which teams are legitimately in the mix to land the right-hander. His agent, Joel Wolfe, said that 20 teams reached out when Sasaki was initially posted, but a much smaller number were granted meetings to make pitches to Sasaki in person. The first round of meetings reportedly included sit-downs with the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, Giants and Padres.

As the signing period approached, the majority of those teams were informed that they were no longer in the running. During Ohtani’s free agency, a defined list of seven finalists emerged in the days leading up to his signing. Now a similar dynamic appears to be unfolding with Sasaki, with reports surfacing Monday that his camp has narrowed the field to three finalists: the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays.

Wolfe said in December that Sasaki might make a few visits to suitors’ cities in January as a final part of his decision-making process. Indeed, reports indicate that he recently spent time in Toronto and San Diego. In the case of the Dodgers, it’s safe to say Sasaki already spent a good amount of time in Los Angeles this offseason. His initial round of meetings reportedly took place at his agency’s headquarters in L.A., and he recently posted a video on his Instagram of him throwing a bullpen at nearby Loyola Marymount University.

That the Padres welcomed Sasaki for a visit was hardly a shock. Along with the Dodgers — whose roster features two massive Japanese stars in Ohtani and Yamamoto and whose track record of excellence at all levels of the organization has made them a premier destination for free agents of all kinds — the Padres have long been considered the co-favorites to land Sasaki. They have coveted Sasaki for years and have an iconic Japanese presence of their own in Yu Darvish, who has reportedly been one of Sasaki’s mentors as he has blossomed into a star pitcher in NPB.

Toronto’s involvement, however, came as a surprise. The Blue Jays were not reported as having received an initial meeting with Sasaki. At the same time, the Jays’ late entrance into the fray follows the organization’s recent trend of high-stakes free-agent chases. It was a year ago that Toronto made a serious run at Ohtani during his historic free agency, which included Ohtani visiting the club’s spring training complex. The Jays also made a serious bid for Juan Soto earlier this winter. The organization has not been shy in its pursuit of elite talent, though it has yet to successfully reel in a big fish.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays remain engaged in extension talks with homegrown star Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose free agency is looming after the upcoming season. Coming off a dismally disappointing last-place finish in 2024, how the rest of Toronto’s offseason unfolds — whether it involves signing Sasaki, extending Guerrero and/or adding any of the other premier free agents available — could drastically influence the direction of this franchise for years to come.

When will Sasaki sign?

Wolfe has indicated that it’s unlikely Sasaki will agree to a deal right when the signing period officially opens on Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean he’ll remain available much beyond that. Sasaki was posted on Dec. 10, which opened a 45-day window for him to negotiate with teams that will conclude on Jan. 23, so he must make a decision before then. While most teams will announce their 2025 international classes on Wednesday or shortly thereafter, it’s likely that the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays will hold off on finalizing their deals until Sasaki makes his decision and in turn clarifies their budgets.

Also, once the period opens, the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays will have the opportunity to make trades for additional pool space. Such maneuvers — as well as any developments involving amateur players who verbally agreed to deals with these three teams — might provide some clarity regarding which team is in the best position to sign Sasaki and the size of his eventual bonus. Again, it’s unclear whether Sasaki will be seeking more money than what these teams can offer based on what they’ve previously committed, but this is the category of clues worth monitoring as this process draws to a close.