Celtics Mailbag: Midseason grade, potential roster tweaks and more originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The midway point of the 2024-25 season is in sight and the Celtics’ up-and-down play has readers pondering all sorts of tweaks. Let’s dive right into your questions in our latest mailbag:
Near the halfway mark of the NBA season, what overall grade do you give the Celtics for their efforts and record so far? And what, if anything, needs improvement? — @MrEd315 on X
Before we reveal our grade, let’s emphasize a few key facts:
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The Celtics are 28-11 with a +9.5 net rating this season. One year ago, they were 30-9 with a +9.8 net rating.
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One year ago, Boston owned the best record in basketball by 2.5 games. This season, the Celtics are 5.5 games back of East-leading Cleveland and 4.5 games behind West-leading Oklahoma City. The Cavaliers and Thunder both could flirt with 70-win seasons; the Celtics are currently on pace to fall short of 60 wins.
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One year ago, Boston’s preferred starting five had played 336 minutes together over 21 appearances and owned a +16.5 net rating. This season, Boston’s starting group of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday have played 138 total minutes with a net rating of an impossibly low minus-8.9.
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Through the first 39 games last season, Boston’s top eight players had missed a total of 28 games, with the frontcourt tandem of Al Horford (six) and Kristaps Porzingis (10) accounting for more than half of that total. This season, Boston’s top eight has missed 56 games, with Horford and Porzingis absent for a combined 31 games.
With all that said, the Celtics get a B- for the first half of the 2024-25 season.
The eye test does not match what the advanced numbers suggest. In a way, that’s encouraging. If the Celtics’ starters get back to their normal ways; if Boston eliminates some lapses in defensive consistency; if a few more 3-pointers start falling; and if opponents stop having career nights inside TD Garden; then Boston ought to dominate the second half of the season.
Coming off a championship season, the Celtics entered the 2024-25 with unreachable expectations, at least when the only goal that matters can’t be achieved until June. And the fact that two other teams in the NBA are having historic seasons has moved the goal posts even further back.
But even when the Celtics were riding high at 19-5 through the first six weeks of the season, we were emphatic that Boston wasn’t playing to its full potential. A team-wide shooting slump since then has exposed some of those lapses in effort and focus.
Are we worried about this team’s ability to compete for a title? Absolutely not. If healthy and engaged, it’s hard to imagine any team beating the Celtics four out of seven times.
But whether it’s the starters finding their mojo, or the bench finding the consistency it delivered a year ago, or the team cranking up the intensity on the defensive end just a little bit more, there’s plenty of room for improvement.
Are they just waiting until June to lock in? — @362Eon
We knew it was going to be tough for this team to summon the necessary energy and focus on a nightly basis over 82 games coming off a championship season. We knew they were going to get every opponent’s best punch.
I do think this team has shown it can ratchet it up on a bigger stage, as evidenced by ending Cleveland’s 15-game win streak and that first-half outburst in Oklahoma City. Alas, the “flip the switch” mentality is risky and we’d hope the team would instead start showing better habits in the ramp to mid April.
It’s easy to blame the recent mediocrity on the 3-point shooting, but what about the poor defense? When will they get back to a more defensive minded identity? — @KWAPT
It’s undeniable that the defense has to get better. From the guards offering more resistance at the point of attack, to bigs rebounding the ball more consistently to prevent second-half opportunities, everyone on the roster can pick it up a bit.
And while we scoff at the notion of Boston’s success hinging solely on 3-point shooting, it’s also undeniable that a few more makes from deep will solve a whole bunch of problems for a team that has only lost two games by double digits (albeit, its last two losses).
Do you think the Celtics should go back to the starters that they used in the months of October and November when they were winning more games? — @fritzglc
The starting five with Horford in place of Porzingis has logged 208 minutes over 14 games with a sizzling +21.9 net rating. Among the 34 five-man lineups in the NBA with at least 125 total minutes this season, that’s the best net rating of any group — and by 3.8 points over the nearest rival (Indy’s starters, +18.1).
The Porzingis group ranks 32nd out of the 34 lineups — only groups from Portland and Washington have been worse — with the minus-8.9 rating.
That said, I think I’d rather give the preferred starting group every opportunity to find its mojo than mess with roles. Porzingis is playing some inspired ball and looks far more comfortable on the court lately.
We’re eager to see if the numbers shift with a sustained run of health for that first five. But it is admittedly wild to see just how jarring the difference is swapping just one player.
Any possibility of acquiring another big to improve interior defense? Seems like teams are getting to the rim at will. — @NickProto
Do you see any moves at the deadline? — @Bumps04
As discussed in previous mailbags, the Celtics don’t have a lot of options to improve the roster as a second-apron team. They can’t aggregate contracts, which means that, short of an unexpected big-salary move, Boston’s most expensive trade chip would be Jaden Springer’s $4 million contract.
The question at that point becomes whether it’s worth the draft capital you’d have to attach to fetch a player who might not necessarily crack Boston’s top nine. The Celtics splurged picks to acquire Xavier Tillman a year ago, and he’s played 175 total minutes this season.
We’ll continue to shout that a big wing is more of a priority than another pure big. Boston has an open roster spot and can add without necessarily swapping out pieces.
A hefty luxury tax bill will force the team to ponder its options with Springer. Oshae Brissett remains unsigned, and there will be plenty of Lonnie Walker chatter over the next few weeks (though if he’s motivated by role, he’ll likely find more consistent playing time on another contender).
We suspect there will be some tinkering, but ultimately, the success of the 2024-25 team hinges on the top nine playing better, not who occupies spots 10-15.
Depth wing seems to be needed. Why not give Baylor Scheierman a shot while Brad Stevens makes a plan for the trade deadline? He’s crushing it in Maine right now. I think the way Boston wants him to play is clicking more so than ever right now. — @CelticsFiles
Scheierman, the 30th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, is averaging 18.2 points per game in 11 appearances for the Maine Celtics while shooting 33.3 percent on 9.3 3-point attempts per game.
He made eight triples in Maine’s win over Capital City on Monday (flirting with a triple-double while finishing with 25 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists) and has connected on four or more 3-pointers in seven of Maine’s 10 games since the G-League regular season started in late December.
If the Celtics were steamrolling teams, we’d be all for Scheierman getting occasional fourth-quarter NBA run. But Sam Hauser got fewer than nine minutes against New Orleans on Sunday when Mazzulla leaned on a playoff-like rotation. It’s better Scheierman gets reps in Maine.
What is your favorite “what if” to ponder? — @T_MacDonnell
What if the Montreal Screwjob never happened? Does Bret Hart drop the title willingly on Raw? Does the Mr. McMahon character launch like it did in the aftermath? Did that moment fully ignite the Attitude Era? Does WWF surge past WCW in the Monday Night Wars without it, leading to WCW’s eventual demise?
Do you believe in life after love? — @or_whatever3
The Celtics won a title after Robert Williams III departed. Enough said.
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