Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
NFL Wild Card odds feature six matchups of varying intrigue. One that’s certainly interesting is the Saturday night clash between division rivals.
For a third time this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens get together. But this time, the point spread is at its peak, even reaching double digits.
“Ten is a big number, especially for a division rival,” Caesars Sports head of trading Joey Feazel said. “But the drop-off of the Steelers the past few weeks is gonna be fresh in the bettors’ minds.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Steelers vs. Ravens and the rest of the matchups, as we dive into NFL Wild Card Weekend betting.
Saturday Night Showdown
Baltimore is the AFC’s No. 3 seed, after finishing the regular season 12-5 straight up (SU) and 10-6-1 against the spread (ATS). The Ravens are on a nice run, too, winning and covering the point spread in their last four games.
That includes a Week 16 matchup in which Lamar Jackson & Co. doubled up Pittsburgh 34-17 as 7.5-point home favorites.
On the flip side, the Steelers (10-7 SU/11-6 ATS) lost their last four games and went 1-3 ATS. That’s why Pittsburgh is on the road this week as the No. 6 seed, instead of sitting as the AFC North champ and hosting a playoff game.
It’s also why Caesars opened the Ravens as 9.5-point favorites and spent the first half of this week at -10, before nudging back to -9.5 on Wednesday afternoon. But it’s not all Baltimore action just yet.
“Right now, we’re pretty balanced on this game, surprisingly,” Feazel said, while noting he doesn’t expect that to be the case come 8 p.m. ET Saturday. “I’m sure we’re gonna need the Steelers on game day.”
NFL Rocks On FOX
FOX gets a matchup that oddsmakers and bettors are eagerly anticipating: the Green Bay Packers vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, at 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
The Eagles (14-3 SU/11-6 ATS) are the NFC’s No. 2 seed. The Packers (11-6 SU/9-8 ATS) are the No. 7 seed, getting the final NFC postseason slot. Green Bay is also a bit banged up. Quarterback Jordan Love (elbow) is expected to play, but wideout Christian Watson is out after tearing his right ACL in last week’s 24-22 loss to Chicago.
Philly QB Jalen Hurts missed the last two games while under concussion protocol. But he practiced Wednesday and should be a go Sunday.
Caesars Sports opened the Eagles -4 on Sunday night and got bet up to -5.5 by late Monday morning. The line has since stabilized at Philadelphia -4.5, but action is tilted.
“We’re seeing one-way traffic here on the Eagles. There are a lot of Eagles backers in this spot,” Feazel said. “Opposite to last year, the Eagles have only gotten better week-by-week. And they’re getting a fresh Saquon Barkley out there.”
Barkley rested in Week 18 after racking up 2,005 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground.
And to Feazel’s point on improving: Last year, Philly lost five of its last six regular-season games, then got knocked out by Tampa Bay on Wild Card Weekend. This year, the Eagles enter the playoffs on a 12-1 SU run, going 9-4 ATS in that stretch.
Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson: Which QB has more at stake in playoff matchup?
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay has a couple of playoff wagers in his pocket. The first is a two-team, six-point teaser, pairing the Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. the Denver Broncos with the Los Angeles Rams +7.5 vs. the Minnesota Vikings.
For clarity: A teaser is much like a parlay, but with shorter odds/smaller payout due to the adjusted point spreads. In this case, McKay’s teaser subtracts 6 points from the Bills’ spread and adds 6 points to the Rams’ spread.
“I like going against rookie QBs, especially making a road playoff start,” McKay said, alluding to Broncos starter Bo Nix. “Denver’s defense hasn’t been able to step up against better offenses. The Bills defense relies on turnovers, and they will get a couple here. It’ll be tough for Denver to keep up.”
Despite going 14-3 SU (11-5-1 ATS), Minnesota is the NFC’s No. 5 seed, after losing 31-9 at Detroit in Week 18.
“This is a very tough spot for the Vikings, coming off the [big] game for the No. 1 seed vs Detroit,” McKay said. “I still see a close game. These two teams played earlier this year in a close game.”
In Week 8, the Rams led the visiting Vikings 21-20 early in the fourth quarter. Los Angeles added a touchdown and a safety to win 30-20.
McKay also likes Pittsburgh to cover as a 10-point underdog at Baltimore.
“It’s the third meeting this year. Pittsburgh won the first, Baltimore won the second,” McKay said. “This line is inflated by how each team has played recently. Baltimore’s best wide receiver, Zay Flowers (knee), is questionable. And I still don’t trust Baltimore’s defense to cover a double-digit spread.”
Nick’s Wild Card Tiers: Steelers, Texans in familiar territory; Chiefs ready
Super Chargers
Feazel believes the Los Angeles Chargers are in an enviable spot as the No. 5 seed. That means a road trip against a No. 4 Houston Texans squad that struggled at multiple junctures this season.
“The Chargers overtook the Steelers at that No. 5 seed, and everybody wants to get in on this matchup,” Feazel said.
Los Angeles (11-6 SU/12-5 ATS) opened as a 3-point favorite and remains there as of Wednesday night for the opening Wild Card game, at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Houston (10-7 SU/11-6 ATS) had a midseason stretch in which it lost three of four, and the Texans lost at Kansas City and at home to Baltimore in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
There’s no shame in losing to K.C. or Baltimore. But the Ravens’ loss was an obliteration, with Houston tumbling 31-2.
“We’re seeing mostly Chargers action thus far. It’s pretty one-sided, but the market doesn’t want to budge off that 3,” Feazel said.
Greg Olsen breaks down Philadelphia Eagles-Green Bay Packers Wild Card showdown
The Rest Of The Story
Feazel provided insights on the other three matchups, as well, starting with Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET contest between the No. 7 Broncos and No. 2 Bills. Buffalo (13-4 SU/10-7 ATS) opened as a 9-point home favorite and is down a notch to -8.5.
“Action-wise, we are seeing that Super Bowl middle, where bettors are laying 8.5/9 with the Bills or playing the Broncos on the moneyline,” Feazel said.
The Broncos (10-7 SU/12-5 ATS) are +360 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet would profit $360 (total payout $460) in the unlikely event of an upset.
The other two matchups: the Washington Commanders (12-5 SU/10-6-1 ATS) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7 SU and ATS); and the Minnesota Vikings (14-3 SU/11-5-1 ATS) vs. the Los Angeles Rams (10-7 SU/9-8 ATS). Feazel’s thoughts on those contests:
- Commanders vs. Buccaneers: Caesars opened the Bucs as 3.5-point home favorites and quickly went to -3. That’s where the line remains for this 8 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff. “It’s two-way action on the spread, but there’s more of a decision on the total. Jayden Daniels has an explosive offense and a not-so-great defense. So, instead of taking a side, bettors are taking the Over.” The total of 50 is the highest of the six Wild Card games.
- Vikings vs. Rams: The Vikes opened -2 and briefly got to -2.5 on Monday, but the spread then slid as low as pick ‘em on Wednesday evening. It’s now Minnesota -1. “We’re seeing more Rams money. The Vikings got embarrassed at Detroit, and there’s kind of a sentiment of not being sure whether Sam Darnold can handle this spot.”
Keep an eye on the Vikings-Rams game, currently set for 8 p.m. ET Monday. It could be moving due to the massive wildfires in the Los Angeles area. Discussions were taking place on Wednesday about possibly moving the game to the Arizona Cardinals’ stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
Must-Win playoff showdown: Buffalo Bills or Denver Broncos?
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
High rollers are apparently keeping their powder dry until a little later this week. There are no reported major wagers yet on NFL Wild Card Weekend odds. But rest assured, they’re coming.
In the meantime, there’s an interesting bet banking on a big comeback for Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. You might recall that Hutchinson broke his left leg during Detroit’s 47-9 Week 6 blowout of Dallas.
That was on Oct. 13, with recovery time projected at four to six months. Hutchinson would ostensibly be at four months on Super Bowl Sunday, Feb. 9.
It’s not a long shot that No. 1 seed Detroit makes the Super Bowl. After all, the Lions are +290 favorites at Caesars to win the championship. But It’s still a long shot that Hutchinson returns.
If he does, though, and he’s anything like he was in the first five games of the season — when he racked up seven sacks — then this bet might get much more intriguing: $500 on Hutchinson +15000 (150/1) to win Super Bowl MVP.
Should Hutchinson return and tear it up at the Superdome, the Caesars customer stands to profit $75,000. It’s a comeback story worth keeping an eye on and rooting for.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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