David Helman
NFL Reporter
The draft day cliché speaks about placing trust in the signal-caller.
Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL for several reasons. It’s the face of the franchise, the most important player on the field and the guy you trust to deliver in big moments.
Trust. That’s the key word for this particular piece. There are half a dozen objective, numerical ways to evaluate a quarterback these days. Salary, statistics, accolades. They’re all fairly straightforward and empirical. Trust is tougher — a much more vague and subjective metric.
But with a playoff game, or even a Super Bowl on the line, nothing could be more important. So, among the 14 quarterbacks in this year’s NFL playoffs, who do you trust the most?
Let’s discuss.
14. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
If we were going purely off career accomplishments, Wilson would deserve a much loftier ranking. Unfortunately, nine playoff wins don’t feel as important when the last of those happened in 2020 — and when Wilson has struggled as much as he has this past month. It didn’t feel like we were headed here two months ago, when he posted a passer rating above 100 five times in his first seven games. Since then, the ratings have dipped, as have the Steelers’ point totals.
13. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
The true story of Nix’s season lies somewhere between what you hear from his fans and his detractors. It’s objectively incredible that he’s led Denver to 10 wins and scored 33 touchdowns as a rookie. He’s still far from being a finished product, as we’ve seen at times. Still, his athleticism should give him a strong chance to frustrate the Bills in his playoff debut.
12. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
To be clear, this is a Texans problem — not necessarily a Stroud problem. But the bottom line is that it’s been a rough year in Houston. Stroud is one of three quarterbacks this season to be sacked 50 times. Among quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks, he’s been pressured fifth-most. The receiving corps is depleted by injury. The run game is one of the most inefficient in the league. Stroud should be just fine in the long run, but it’s hard to have confidence in the 2024 Texans offense.
11. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
It’s sound advice to be wary of rookies in the postseason, no matter how strong their regular season was. Rookie starting quarterbacks are 10-18 in the playoffs since the 2002 realignment. That said, if you’re going to put your faith in a rookie, Daniels is the one. Already at this young stage of his career, he has engineered four game-winning drives — including two in the last month of the season. He’s oozing confidence, and his accuracy and mobility give him a deep bag to pull from.
10. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Darnold would’ve been higher on this list a week ago, but the Detroit game was the type of performance that shakes your faith. Against the Lions, Darnold missed several explosive plays and three potential touchdowns with either bad throws or missed reads. As good as he has been this year, that’s a rough final impression. Factor in the part where we’ve yet to see him in the postseason, and it’s tough to say you can trust him.
9. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Something has just felt off with the Packers’ passing game recently. That’s not all Love’s fault. He’s missed time with injury. He’s currently dealing with one now. His receivers have dropped 23 passes, which is third-highest among playoff quarterbacks. There’s no easy answer to it, but Love and the Packers’ passing attack have only shown glimpses of their full potential in the past five or six weeks. Maybe Love can get back to the form we saw at this time last year, but it’s hard to have full confidence right now.
8. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hopefully, this was the year people started to take Mayfield seriously as a real-deal, franchise quarterback. His accomplishments this season speak for themselves — and by the way, he’s played admirably both times he’s landed in the playoffs to date. Having said that, his interception rate of 2.8% is the highest number in the playoffs. He’s capable of leading the Bucs to postseason wins, but his production comes with a cost.
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
We all owe a debt of gratitude to Jim Harbaugh for helping Herbert shine. From the time he was drafted, Herbert’s shortcomings have been far more about the structure around him than his own play. And now that the Chargers are finally starting to resemble a competent organization, they’re reaping the benefits.
Herbert is one of just 13 quarterbacks to attempt 500 passes this season, and he leads the pack with an absurdly low three interceptions. He and Josh Allen are the only qualified starters without a fourth-quarter pick this year. He’s shown all season that he can be trusted. Now, he just needs to maintain it in the playoffs.
6. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Goff is living proof of how cruel the postseason is, because he’s appeared in nine playoff games, and I’d argue the only time he truly played poorly was the biggest game of all: Super Bowl LIII versus the Patriots. That said, my concern with Goff is that there’s a pretty clear blueprint with his game. His relative lack of mobility doesn’t give him much room to improvise against top-tier defenses. He has only been pressured on 33% of his dropbacks this season, but he has thrown half of his interceptions in those circumstances. The Lions are good enough that getting to Goff is hard to do, but if you can, it can be problematic for him.
5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Some might have Hurts higher on this list due to his incredible performance in a losing effort in Super Bowl LVII against the Chiefs. And that’s perfectly fine. Personally, I’d simply like to see a bit more. Hurts’ other two playoff wins, against the Giants and 49ers during that run in 2022, largely consisted of him staying out of the way against overmatched opponents. And his 2021 and 2023 performances against Tampa Bay were forgettable, at best. This weekend’s game against Green Bay offers a perfect test.
4. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
If we’re talking about trust, then a proven track record should carry a lot of weight. With a lot of names on this list, projection and guesswork come into play. But we’ve watched Stafford lead the Rams to four consecutive wins and a Super Bowl championship as a No. 4 seed — which, coincidentally, is once again where the Rams find themselves in the bracket this year. Stafford is a risk-taker, as evidenced by his eight turnovers in eight career playoff games. But when the chips are down, he’s as proven as anyone other than Patrick Mahomes.
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Scoff if you want to. I’m aware that Jackson’s playoff track record does not measure up to his incredible regular-season performances. I also know that Jackson is one of the league’s best players, and narratives can flip overnight. Peyton Manning started his career 3-6 in the postseason, with four different one-and-done performances before he finally broke through and helped the Colts win Super Bowl XLI.
Jackson hasn’t been at his best in the playoffs, but he also hasn’t been some unsalvageable nightmare. There simply aren’t many quarterbacks I’d rather have right now than the league’s first 4,000-yard passer/800-yard rusher. With that type of talent, I’m confident Jackson’s moment is coming.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
It’s heartbreaking to think what Allen’s legacy might be if he wasn’t playing in the same conference at the same time as Patrick Mahomes. He’s posted a career passer rating of 100 in the postseason with 27 total touchdowns to just six turnovers. He’s been phenomenal — with the one unfortunate caveat that he’s made one or two less plays than Mahomes in some classic games. Maybe this is the year he flips the script.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
It doesn’t really feel like much needs to be said other than the résumé: three Super Bowl championships, three Super Bowl MVPs, five fourth-quarter comebacks in the playoffs. Anyone with another answer about the most trustworthy quarterback in the playoffs is just trying to be different.
David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.
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