Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
College Football Playoff semifinal odds have an interesting twist involved at Caesars Sports, at least when it comes to the second semifinal, which is Friday night’s clash of Ohio State vs. Texas in the Cotton Bowl.
A month ago, ahead of conference championship weekend, a Louisiana customer plunked down a whopping $1.5 million on Texas +390 to win the National Championship. So, obviously, that has factored into Caesars’ desired outcome on Friday night.
“We’re probably gonna be rooting for that Super Bowl middle of Ohio State winning but not covering,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel.
Feazel and college football betting expert Paul Stone serve up their insights on odds for the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Opening Act
Before Ohio State and Texas take the field, it’s Notre Dame vs. Penn State in the Orange Bowl. Caesars Sports opened the Fighting Irish as slim 1.5-point favorites, went to -2 on Friday and got to -2.5 for about 12 hours on Tuesday.
But the point spread has since turned toward Penn State, with Notre Dame just a 1-point favorite as of Wednesday night, ahead of Thursday’s 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. However, Feazel said Notre Dame is still seeing more money.
Bettors are also leaning toward a lower-scoring game. The total opened at 47 and got as low as 44.5 on Wednesday morning, then nudged up to 45.
“That does reflect the action we’re seeing now. These two teams have strong defenses. Most of the action is on the Under, including sharper action at Under 47 and Under 46,” Feazel said.
That’s in line with both teams’ results so far in College Football Playoff odds. The Under is 2-0 for Notre Dame and 2-0 for Ohio State in the CFP.
The Fighting Irish enter the semis at 13-1 straight up (SU) and 12-2 against the spread (ATS), the second-best spread-covering mark in all of college football this season. The Nittany Lions are 13-2 SU/8-7 ATS.
CFP Semifinal Super Six: Ohio State vs. Texas, Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Buckeyes Bandwagon
Ohio State has been a freight train so far in the playoffs, winning its two games by a combined total of 45 points. In the quarterfinals, the Buckeyes (12-2 SU/8-6 ATS) bolted to a 34-0 lead late in the second quarter vs. Oregon, then coasted to a 41-21 victory.
On the flip side, Texas blew a 24-8 fourth-quarter lead vs. Arizona State and got dragged to overtime tied at 24. The Longhorns (13-2 SU/8-7 ATS) won 39-31 in double overtime but didn’t cover as heavy 13.5-point favorites.
Those results led oddsmakers to significantly change their opinions on Ohio State vs. Texas, which kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET Friday. Caesars opened the matchup at Buckeyes -4.5 on Jan. 1, and within an hour or so, the line went to -5.5, then to -6, where it remained Wednesday night.
“What Ohio State opened at was really high. Some of the lookahead lines for that matchup were Ohio State -1.5/-2,” Feazel said. “It’s a massive reaction and adjustment, based on two games.”
But bettors seem fine laying 6 at Caesars and 5.5 at a few other books. The public betting masses tend to remember most of what they saw last, and that’s the Buckeyes pasting two CFP foes.
“There’s very much a recency bias of late to Ohio State. It’s been almost nothing but Buckeyes action,” Feazel said, while noting Caesars saw some sharp play on Texas +6.
Ohio State is getting the bulk of moneyline attention at Caesars, too. In that instance, the Buckeyes need only to win the game, regardless of margin. Ohio State moneyline odds are currently -225, meaning it takes a $225 bet to win $100 (total payout $325).
As noted above, though, Caesars also holds that $1.5 million bet on Texas to win the national title. So the book is rooting for an Ohio State win and a Texas cover, to scoop up all the Buckeyes spread bets and that monster Longhorns championship bet.
Can Notre Dame slow down the Penn State run game?
On-Campus Sharp Side
Stone was on target in taking Arizona State to cover as a 13.5-point underdog vs. Texas in the CFP quarterfinals. He’s following up with a play on Ohio State vs. Texas.
And he’s again going against the Longhorns.
Stone admitted he’s perhaps guilty of the aforementioned recency bias but recommends laying 5.5 points with Ohio State. He thinks the Buckeyes will defeat the Longhorns by a touchdown or more.
“It’s difficult to ignore the dominance displayed by Ohio State in its opening two playoff victories, over ninth-ranked Tennessee and top-ranked Oregon,” Stone said. “The Buckeyes averaged eight yards per play in those wins, while only allowing 3.8 yards per play.
“They are playing with great purpose and confidence. Quarterback Will Howard has elevated his play and is taking care of the football.”
Stone was particularly impressed with Ohio State’s emphatic starts during the two playoff games. The Buckeyes led Tennessee 21-0 after just 12 minutes, and they led Oregon 31-0 less than 22 minutes into the game.
“Ohio State has found another gear that the other three teams simply lack, in my opinion,” Stone said. “If Texas doesn’t pressure Howard and force him into mistakes, I think the Longhorns could be in for a long day.”
CFP semifinal best bets, odds and predictions
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Not to beat a dead horse — or a live bet, in this case — but that $1.5 million wager on Texas +390 to win it all looms large for Caesars Sports. If Texas upsets Ohio State, then beats either Penn State or Notre Dame, then the bettor rakes in a massive profit of $5.85 million, for a total payout of $7.35 million.
Then there’s this intriguing situation at Caesars on the Notre Dame-Penn State matchup:
- Way back on Sept. 9, after the Fighting Irish shockingly lost to Northern Illinois, a customer put $500 on Notre Dame +8000 (80/1) to win the national title. That bettor would profit $40,000 if Notre Dame goes the distance.
- On Thursday’s game itself, a Caesars customer this week bet $165,000 on Penn State +2.
Wouldn’t it be interesting if Notre Dame wins by a point? The Fighting Irish futures bet survives, with the potential of winning $40,000 on Jan. 20. And the Penn State bettor pockets $150,000 in profit ($315,000 total payout).
Just something worth watching for on Thursday night. Enjoy the semifinals.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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