Whoever wins the Cotton Bowl on Friday night will be the favorite to win the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on Jan. 20. Here’s what you need to know ahead of the big showdown between Ohio State and Texas.
Date: Jan. 10 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN | Line: Ohio State -6 | Total: 53.5
How these teams got here
Ohio State is the favorite to win the College Football Playoff after it has blistered its opponents by a combined score of 83-38 in the first two rounds. The Buckeyes dominated Tennessee at home in a 42-17 win before blitzing Oregon in the first half of their 41-21 Rose Bowl victory. Ohio State led 31-0 midway through the second quarter in that game.
Texas had a bit more drama in its Peach Bowl matchup. The Longhorns coughed up a 24-8 lead in the fourth quarter as Arizona State turned a 16-point deficit into a tied game in just over five minutes. The teams traded touchdowns in the first overtime after Texas missed a game-winning field goal at the end of regulation. Texas scored on the first play of the second overtime and then defensive back Andrew Mukuba sealed the game with an interception for a 39-31 win. Before beating Arizona State, the Longhorns beat Clemson 38-24 at home.
How the QBs stack up
As Ohio State has dominated its opponents, Will Howard is playing the best football of his Ohio State career. Howard was 24-of-29 passing for 311 yards and two touchdowns against the Volunteers and also added 37 rushing yards. Against Oregon in the Rose Bowl, Howard was 17-of-26 passing for 319 yards and three scores. Howard had thrown for over 300 yards just once this season before the College Football Playoff began. Overall, he’s 268-of-369 passing for 3,490 yards and 32 TDs with nine interceptions and has also rushed for seven more scores.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers has had a bit of an uneven season. The Peach Bowl was a great example. The Longhorns sliced through Arizona State on their first drive, were pretty average for the rest of regulation outside of a fourth-quarter TD drive and then put it together in overtime with two touchdowns in five plays. Ewers finished the game 20-of-30 passing for 322 yards and four total touchdowns. For the season, Ewers is 270-of-406 passing for 3,189 yards and 29 TDs with 11 interceptions.
The Cotton Bowl is also Ewers’ first chance to play against his former team. Ewers famously enrolled early at Ohio State and appeared in one game as a freshman before transferring back to his home state before the 2022 season.
Texas’ home-field advantage … and the weather
There’s no denying that it will be a partisan crowd at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Friday night. The vast majority of the fans will be wearing burnt orange and it will likely sound like an Ohio State road game. But Buckeyes fans travel well too; there should be a contingent wearing red, even if Ohio State is playing in its second straight Cotton Bowl.
Yes, it’s going to be an indoor game, but the weather is also set to be a possible factor, both for Texas’ potential home-field advantage and even if the game could be played as scheduled. A major winter storm could hit the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex Thursday night into Friday. As you know, they don’t have much snow-clearing equipment in the DFW area.
But the Cotton Bowl said in a statement on Tuesday evening that the game was going to be played as scheduled and that the forecast had improved. We’ll see how the weather looks as the game gets closer.
Players to watch
Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson: The senior has outperformed Quinshon Judkins so far this season, especially in the College Football Playoff. He had a 66-yard TD run in the first half of the Rose Bowl and finished with eight carries for 94 yards and two scores to go along with three catches for 20 yards. Against Tennessee, Henderson had 10 carries for 80 yards and two scores.
Before the CFP, Henderson had rushed for just six touchdowns. He’s now tied for the team lead in rushing scores and he’s also the team’s leading rusher with 925 yards. That’s just one more yard than Judkins so far this season, but Judkins has carried the ball 48 more times than Henderson has. Henderson is now averaging 7.3 yards per carry and has shown he’s capable of breaking a big run at nearly any moment.
Texas TE Gunnar Helm: The tight end leads the Longhorns in catches with 58 and has 744 yards and seven touchdowns. That seventh TD of the season was the game-winner in the Peach Bowl when a wide-open Helm caught a TD pass from Ewers that eventually gave Texas the win. Helm has excelled at getting open between the numbers this season and has scored a TD in each of the first two CFP games.
He’s also been a trusted target of Ewers in big games. He had seven grabs for 98 yards and a TD against Michigan; five catches for 91 yards and a score against Oklahoma; six catches for 62 yards in Texas’ first loss to Georgia; and six catches for 56 yards against Texas A&M before tallying nine catches through the first two CFP games.
Key to the game
Have Clemson and Arizona State unlocked something in Texas’ pass defense or are their yardage totals simply the product of the Longhorns’ leads throughout much of the game? Texas has one of the best pass defenses in the country and allows opposing QBs to throw for just 166 yards a game. Ahead of the playoff, Texas had allowed more than 200 pass yards in a single game just twice and opposing QBs had thrown for four touchdowns all season.
Through two playoff games, Texas has given up 632 passing yards and four TDs through the air.
Players like Mukuba and Jahdae Barron match up extremely well with Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and others. But this is an Ohio State team that has a passing game with a much faster gear than both Clemson and Arizona State. It’s hard to see Texas winning on Friday night if Howard has another 300-yard game.
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